Sexy Boston Sports

Super Sunday

2012-02-05T07:10:00.001-08:00

Super Bowl 46 (Sunday - 6:29pm)

The day is finally here. Time for the incessant talk to stop. We've heard all the stories: the Giants D-line vs. the Pat's O-line and Brady. A rematch of the game that shall not be discussed. Belichick and Coughlin are both Parcells' disciples. Gronk's ankle. Brady vs. Eli in Peyton's house. Yada yada. I could write for hours about this game and still not say everything that I want to, so I'll try and keep it short. Plus I'm too damn excited to write or concentrate enough to form coherent sentences.

All I know is I've been watching the past Super Bowl DVD's over the last two weeks and couldn't wait another day. One thing that was apparent from the past Super Bowl teams was that they were all truly teams and handled adversity equally as well as their triumphs. The 2011 Patriots have certainly had their share of adversity - from losing Ms. Myra, the constant criticism of the defense, and losing back to back games for the first time since God knows when - here they are; one game away from being crowned kings of the NFL. If anything has been telling of the nature of this years Pats team, it has been Belichick's laid back attitude the past week. He's been engaging with the media, even cracking jokes and you can tell he feels his team is well prepared for the biggest game of the year.

After watching highlights from the regular season match up between the Giants and Patriots, we know this game will be a battle. Both defenses set the tone in that match up, with hard hitting and exceptional tackling, leading to a 0-0 halftime score. The Giants ultimately won as Tracy White, a career special teamer, failed miserably in his efforts to replace both Brandon Spike and Gary Guyton at linebacker who were both injured in that game. White had textbook form on how to play the worst pass coverage imaginable. Brady also had too many turnovers, and that was that. Since the return of Spikes and Chung, the defense has shown marked improvement and should perform much better than they did in the 2nd half of that game. Of course that is much easier said than done when going up against a receiving corps as talented as the Giants. The pass defense has been the ultimate question mark for this team throughout the season, now it's time for their ultimate test.

If you've read anything that I've written during the playoffs, then you'll know the keys to today's game will be turnovers and red zone efficiency. Brady will need to protect the ball much better than he did in the last match up if the Pats want to win. One other key to watch will be how strictly the referees enforce holding penalties. Watching the Giants over the past few weeks, their suspect O-line gets away with more holding penalties than any team I've seen in recent memory. If they are allowed to hold the Patriots pass rushers and give Eli time to extend plays, it could be the difference maker in tonight's game.

At the start of the playoffs, I wrote that this Giants team had the feel of one of those teams that is just destined to make a run to the Super Bowl. That feeling was stronger than ever watching Eli float passes into double coverage two weeks ago in the NFC Championship game. On two occasions, San Francisco defenders knocked each other out of the game because the passes were so bad that they collided trying to intercept them. But that stops tonight. This Patriots team has proven their mental toughness time and time again throughout the 2011 season. Belichick prepares them better than anyone. Over the past two weeks, the Patriots have gotten the feel of being the underdog even though their 2 and a half point favorites. In a season which they dedicated to the loss of their beloved first lady, tonight the Patriots deliver Bob Kraft his 4th Lombardi trophy in the honor of his sweetheart.

New England 31 - New York 20

The Game That Changed It All: 10 Years Later

2012-02-03T18:31:00.000-08:00

Rather than bore anyone to death by rehashing the same story lines that have been on repeat for the past two weeks, I figured I'd take a different route - right down memory lane and celebrate the 10 year anniversary of the Greatest Game of All Time .

February 3rd, 2002. New Orleans, Louisiana. The New England Patriots are 14 point underdogs vs. "The Greatest Show on Turf" St. Louis Rams. The Rams are the class of the NFL, while the Pats came out of nowhere after their incumbent QB went down and was replaced by a 2nd year QB who was drafted in the 6th round. New England has never won a Super Bowl - losing both of their prior appearances (both in New Orleans) - and no one is expecting an upset. After watching the Red Sox for the past 84 years, the region knows better than to get their hopes up. But they did beat the Raiders in the Snow Bowl, and went into Pittsburgh to win the AFC Championship, so you never know.

Right from the pregame introductions you could tell there was something different about this team. What is now an unoriginal cliche started on this night. The Rams went through their pregame intros coming out one by one and recognizing some of the greatest offensive players in the league - Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Issac Bruce, Torry Holt. Once they finished, something happened that had never been seen before in the Super Bowl. "Now introducing" boomed Pat Summerall in his ever distinct tone "the American Football Conference Champion New England Patriots" - followed by a swarm of blue jerseys flying out of the tunnel. This was a team, they got here together and wanted to show the world the power of their togetherness both with their introduction and with their play.

What I remember most about this game was made apparent from the first drive - the Pats were going to make St. Louis earn every yard and make their receivers pay for every catch. Each reception was met with a punishing hit into the Super Dome turf. The Rams weren't used to this type of abuse, and it eventually payed off with a forced fumble on Ricky Prohel late in the first half. The teams battled back and forth for most of the first two quarters, with the defenses having the clear advantage. St. Louis took an early 3-0 lead, and held on to it for the first quarter.

The Pats had been applying consistent pressure, but weren't getting quite close enough to Warner. Warner took a short drop and was looking to hit a quick slant when Mike Vrabel came in untouched, got his hands up and altered the throw. This allowed Ty Law to jump the route, and he was off to the races. Touchdown Pats. The Pats sideline was going crazy, the fans were going crazy, we were going crazy in my friends living room - could they actually do this? (Downer side note: Watching the replays, it's hard to imagine that nowadays that play would not have drawn some kind of roughing the passer/illegal hands to the face penalty with the modern (read: pussy) 'protect the QB at all cost' rules. Very happy the NFL was tougher back then.)

The defensive struggle continued until Prohel's aforementioned fumble. Terrell Buckley had a solid return, getting the ball past midfield with just under two minutes left in the half. This led to the only offensive TD for the Pats on the day. Brady surgically executed the two minute drill - complete with a patented NE bubble screen to Troy Brown, and a toss-sweep out of the shotgun (when was the last time a team ran that play) to Kevin Faulk. In vintage Faulk form he picked up the first down on third and short, snuck out of bounds and saved NE's final time out. The drive culminated with a picture perfect throw from Brady to David Patten in the corner of the end-zone for a TD with just over 30 seconds left. The Patriots were up 14-3 at the half and en route to the upset.

Those who follow the Pats know that Belichick's main defensive philosophy is to take away the oppositions primary offensive threat and make them play in a style they are uncomfortable with. For all the hoopla that "The Greatest Show on Turf's" passing game got, it was evident from the start that NE was focused on stopping Marshall Faulk on the ground. The Pats frequently loaded the box with defenders and were playing very disciplined, gap control D against the explosive Faulk. Marshall was able to get very little going in the first half, with St. Louis even resorting to using him in an end around to try and free him up. As much as NE was trying to contain Faulk inside, it looked like NE didn't think the Rams could set the edge against their run game and Antowain Smith. They looked like Lombardi's Packers running power sweeps for much of the game. I was never the biggest fan of Antowain, but he had a very productive game and ran hard throughout.

Another thing that stands out is the sound tackling that the Pats executed that day. There was a 2nd down and 3 play where Faulk looks like he is finally about to break contain when Bruschi scrapes across and meets Faulk in the hole and lays a textbook form tackle on him to stop him short of the first down. On the flip-side, St. Louis' TD to tie the game late in the 4th was the results of some of the most feeble attempts at tackling that I've ever witnessed.

As has been demonstrated throughout the playoffs this year, turnovers played a major role in this game. 17 of New Englands 20 points were a direct result of turnovers - Ty Law's pick 6 was one of the TD's; and Terrell Buckley's recovery and ensuing return of Prohel's fumble set up Pattens TD to close the half. O.T.I.S. Smith had an interception when Torry Holt slipped running his route to set up a field goal. Warner also threw another pick to give the Patriots a huge advantage in the turnover battle. The Rams also had another turnover resulting in a TD called back (4th & Goal from the 3 - Warner fumbles and Tebucky Jones returns it for a TD) when Lefty Mcginest tackled Faulk on the world's most blatant defensive holding penalty.

One stat I found amazing: the Rams didn't get into Red Zone until 4th quarter. As talented as the Rams offense was, nothing speaks greater volumes about Belichick's preparation than that. Also of note considering I've been preaching the importance of Red Zone efficiency all year - the Rams came into the game with the #1 Red Zone Offense in the NFL, while the Pats ranked #1 in Red Zone D.

As well as the Pats D played, the Rams quick strike offense was able to come back and tie the game with 90 seconds remaining. Just enough time for a legend to be born. We all know the story of Tom Brady by now, but on this night he was just a scrappy 24 year old kid playing in the biggest game of his life. The Patriots offense had struggled to pick up points for much of the game, but all they needed was 3 on this drive to hoist their first Lombardi Trophy. The Rams settled into their prevent defense, leaving nothing open downfield for Brady. No worries - a few of checkdowns to J.R. Redmon and the drive was under way. The Rams sloppy tackling allowed Redmon to slip out of bounds and stop the clock just past midfield. A couple of incomplete passes and the Pats were looking at 3rd down with only 29 seconds left. Then Charlie Weis called in the most famous play in Patriots history; '64-Max-All-In'. Brady dropped back, scanned the field and found Troy Brown cutting across the middle for 23 yards, and again the Rams poor tackling let Brown slip out of bounds. One more completion and the stage was set for Adam Vinatieri to kick the game winning 48 yard field goal. Holy. Shit.

Red, white and blue confetti everywhere; Antowain Smith high stepping across the field; Lonnie Paxton doing "snow" angels, Belichick hugging Lawyer Milloy. They did it. The Patriots won the effing Super Bowl. No one said it better than Vinatieri, as he turned to Bob Kraft and said "We shocked the World, but we didn't shock ourselves". Here's hoping the Pats give us a proper anniversary gift come Sunday.

Conference Championship Games

2012-01-22T05:31:00.000-08:00

Three games left in the NFL season. Hard to believe. It comes down to today to see who will represent their Conference in the Super Bowl. Both games are great match ups of very close teams, and those that have been playing the best over the last few months of the season. When it comes to picking the games - each one seems to get harder to decide the more you think about it; but here goes nothing. Enjoy them both, they should be very entertaining.

AFC

Baltimore vs. New England (Sun - 3:00pm)

So now that the Pats proved they can win a playoff game, it's time to do it against a more formidable foe and earn a trip back to the Super Bowl. After last weeks' cakewalk over Denver, a lot of people are hopping back on the Pats bandwagon - but Baltimore ain't no Denver. And no, that has nothing to do with Tebow. The difference is Denver's slightly above average Defense vs. Baltimore's top notch D. Last week we discussed the importance of turnovers and performance in the Red Zone as keys to winning in the playoffs. I think all of the playoff games so far showed us just how important turnovers are, so lets focus on the red zone for this match up. During the regular season, the Pats sported the 2nd highest Offensive Red Zone TD percentage in the NFL, while Baltimore had the 1st ranked Defensive Red Zone TD percentage. So this is a match up of strength vs. strength in the most important stat of the game. The Ravens also ranked 2nd in 3rd down defense. Those are the two key areas to watch in my opinion.

Last week I talked quite a bit about how good Suggs, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Ngata are; and Ed Reed showed he's still the best in the league with that ridiculous pick to end the Houston game. Suggs and Ngata will be key today - can they generate pressure on Brady without needs to bring extra rushers? Both have had success against NE in the past, lets hope they don't today. Another Baltimore defender that will be key to watch is Bernard "ACL Killer" Pollard. He was the one who took out Tom's knee in '08 and was also in coverage on Wes in '09 when Wes tore his ACL. The Pats didn't face Pollard last season, so watch your ACL's today boys. Pollard is a large Strong Safety and figures to be used in coverage against Gronk and Hernandez.

On the other side of the ball, Baltimore starts with Ray Rice. He led their team in both rushing and receiving yards, and limiting him will be priority #1 for the Pats D. The run D looked stout last week against Denver's NFL leading rushing attack, but Baltimore uses a much different style than the Tebow Triple Option. Baltimore loves going big, using extra linemen, unbalanced lines and letting Rice run behind the NFL's best fullback, Vonte Leach. This is a true smashmouth running team, so the Pats big bodies are going to have to step it up today. We saw how explosive Ray Rice can be in the 2009 playoff game, with his 89 yard TD run on the games opening play. Having Spikes and Chung back should help in a major way to stop his running, but what about receiving. Dane Fletcher's first real performance in the NFL came in 2010 when he was effectively used as a spy on Rice coming out of the backfield, so that would be a good place to start. Elsewhere, WR Torrey Smith has had flashes of looking like a fellow AFC North WR, Mike Wallace. Smith is a burner and a true deep threat, someone to keep an eye on today. Lee Evans is a familiar face from his Buffalo days, and has traditionally given the Pats a hard time.

It should be a hard fought battle today, and a close game either way. I think the Pats D will stand tall, and Tom will have enough time to pick about Baltimore.

New England 28 - Baltimore 20

NFC

NY Giants vs. San Francisco (Sun - 6:30pm)

Both teams managed to pull the upsets last week and knock off the two teams that most thought were the safest bets to win the Super Bowl. The Giants still continue to have that look that I discussed two weeks ago, and San Fran had one of the more exciting wins in recent playoff memory (barely hanging on for the win despite 5 New Orleans turnovers). I haven't had a chance to watch San Fran much this year, so I don't really know what to expect. In the battle of #1 overall picks from 2004 and 2005, it's the defenses that will decide the outcome. Is San Frans D good enough to stop all of NYG's weapons? Will their offensive line be able to protect Alex Smith? I wasn't quite sure who to pick, but after typing the name Alex Smith in the same section as NFC Championship Game, it seems unfathomable. He's been a great story so far this season, but I see that coming to an end today.

NY Giants 20 - San Francisco 13

NFL Ramblings

2012-01-19T16:29:00.000-08:00

Some random thoughts around the NFL as we warm up for Conference Championship Weekend.

Get ready for one of these story lines to be on constant repeat following Sunday's games:

The Rematches: If the Giants win we'll have a Super Bowl rematch either way - one of which we're not allowed to talk about here.
The Brothers: This one was already covered enough Thanksgiving night, but yes, we know, Jim & John Harbaugh are brothers.
The Boyhood Idol: Hopefully the one we get to hear. Tom Brady grew up as a 49ers fan in the Bay Area, idolizing Joe Montana. Now he faces Montana's former team to try and tie his record of 4 Super Bowl rings.

When Mikhail Prokhorov bought the New Jersey Nets, Bill Simmons dubbed him "Mutant Russian Mark Cuban", because of how loaded he is and how he loves to toss his money around. After listening to a recent interview with MJD, it seems we may need a nickname for the Jags new owner, Shahid Khan. Jones-Drew put it best - have you seen his boat? I thought I was hot stuff when my dad bought a 22' boat last year; Khan's boat, the Kistmet, jusssst nudges by ours at 223'. So what do we call him? Pakistani NFL Mark Cuban?
I didn't get to see the Saints vs. San Fran game last weekend because I was in Foxboro, but from what I hear it was one for the ages - and the 9ers D looked lethal. I'm can't wait to watch it on NFL replay.
Gillette has been (fairly) criticized over the years for not being very loud, but Saturday night was about as loud as I've ever heard it. From the moment we walked in you could feel the energy, and it didn't let up until the game was over. The seats were shaking and no one sat for all 4 quarters. Here's hoping Sunday's crowd will bring the same enthusiasm.
Of all of the nonsense penalties that exist in the NFL, why isn't there one for all of the injuries that the Broncos were faking as a feeble attempt to slow down the Pats hurry up offense?
Mel Kiper usually gets about 4 out of 32 picks correct in his mock drafts, so why must he start putting them out already, before the season is even over?
Great to see the Pats will have 4 honorary game captains from the '96 AFC Championship team on Sunday. Troy Brown, Bruschi and Ty Law were all obvious picks, and I was hoping to see Lefty McGinest but you can't argue with the selection of Bledsoe. Should get the crowd rocking (not that we'll need much motivation).
Glad to see Philbin got the head coaching job in Miami. Hopefully some welcomed news after a rough few weeks for their family.

Round 2: Fight (Divisional Playoff Preview)

2012-01-14T09:34:00.000-08:00

After a relatively un-wild Wildcard Weekend (save for Denver's OT thriller), it's time to move on to the divisional round. If we learned anything from last weeks games, it's the importance of turnovers. Houston moved on thanks to J.J. Watt's fancy pick-6 as well as Cincy dropping a surefire one of their own. 14 point swing. New Orleans "blew-out" the Lions in a game that would have been a whole closer if Detroit had caught any of the 6 interceptions that came their way. And of course the Giants D help the Falcons offense scoreless when Matt Ryan executed two 4th and 1 QB sneaks exactly how you would expect a player from B.C. to, resulting in two pseudo turnovers. Take care of the ball, and get touchdowns in the red zone, not field goals. That is my wisdom for you this weekend.

AFC

Denver @ New England (Sat - 8:00pm)
Can the Pats finally get over the hump, or will they lose a 3rd straight home playoff game? Hard to believe there would ever be a possibility of that happening, but that is what's on the line when Tebow and Company come to town. The Pats beat Denver pretty handily in Week 15, but it wasn't as pretty as the final score looked. Denver rushed for 160+ in the FIRST QUARTER until the Pats D stiffed for the rest of the game - but lets not forget that Denver lost Willis McGahee for the remainder of the game at the end of the 1st (although NE was without Chung and Spikes). Denver also gifted the Pats fumbles on two straight possessions, followed by a muffed punt that New England recovered. As much as I would love for that to happen again, I don't see it.

The proven formula for beating the Pats over the past few seasons has been getting pressure on Brady without bringing extra pass rushers and making him uncomfortable in the pocket. Can Denver get to Brady without blitzing? New England handled Dumerville and Von Miller pretty well in the first meeting (save for Elvis's one monster sack of Tom), so here's hoping for the same success. Look for Denver to take some shots down the field against the suspect Pats pass D just like they did against Pitt last week. Will they be able to connect on any of these or draw any pass interference calls? We shall see. It should be a fun one, look for me amongst the frozen fans.

New England 34 - Denver 17

Houston @ Baltimore (Sun - 1:00pm)

At first glance, this one has the look of a blowout. A rookie QB on the road at one of the toughest stadiums to play, going up against a dominating defense. TJ Yates looked serviceable against Cincy last week, but Cincy ain't no B-mo'. Houston relies so much on their dominant run game, which is all well and good except when you're facing Haloti Ngata & Co.. For all the hype that Ray Ray and Suggs get, Ngata is the best player on that defense - and probably the best d-lineman in the NFL. And of course there is Ed Reed.

The only cause for hesitation is that you could take everything I just wrote above and flip it to Baltimore and have it be (pretty) true. Flacco isn't a rookie, but I have about as much faith as him as I do in Yates. They're also extremely dependent running game and are facing one of the leagues best defenses. Ok, so I guess I trust Flacco a littttle more than Yates, and Houston doesn't have Ngata or Ed Reed, but Wade Phillips has that D playing like they do. At the end of the day, I don't see Yates being able to produce enough in order for Houston to pull the upset.

Baltimore 24 - Houston 17

NFC

New Orleans @ San Fran (Sat - 4:30pm)
The most intriguing game of the weekend. The Saints have looked unstoppable over the past 2 months, but have yet to prove they can beat a good opponent outdoors. The 9ers are the surprise team of 2012 - but how do we know they're for real? Alex Smith hasn't eclipsed the 300 yard passing mark this season - will they be able to keep pace with Drew Brees? Will the Saints offense be able to show any balance by running the ball against the NFL's most stout run D? And the 9ers pass D is no pushover either. The one is a battle of old school "defense wins championships" NFL vs. new school "every QB in the league set a franchise passing record this season" NFL. It should be exciting to watch, something I'll be trying to figure out how to do from a freezing parking lot in Foxboro.

New Orleans 27 - San Francisco 13

NY Giants @ Green Bay (Sun - 4:30pm)
Now how the hell do I pick in this one? After what I wrote last week about the Giants, followed by the tragic news out of Green Bay this week, this game has all the making of an upset special. But everyone seems to be hopping on that bandwagon, which usually means it's not going to happen. What to do, what to do? The Packers have been the leagues best team all season, and were one game away from us being in the midst of a barrage of 19-0 talk. The Giants gave them a hell of a test in the regular season, and have been known for knocking off juggernauts in recent seasons. I think the return of Greg Jennings, A.J. Hawk and Desmond Bishop should be enough to keep the Pack from stumbling.

Green Bay 31 - NY Giants 20

Welcome Back My Friend To The Show That Never Ends

2012-01-12T17:10:00.000-08:00

When word first broke that Patriots Offensive Coordinator Bill O'Brien was the leading candidate for the head coaching vacancy at Sandusky State, I couldn't help but think - here we go again. Ever since the Pats run of Super Bowls from '01-'04, there has been a steady drain of top talent; both on and off the field. I don't need to name all the names, but the Offensive Coordinator position is one worth discussion. Following the 2004 season, Charlie Weis left to being his failed tenure as Head Coach at Notre Dame. That move was bittersweet for me at the time, because as much as I hated to see Charlie leave, I was ecstatic about his prospects with ND. Following the Patriots, my next love in football is the Irish. I grew up watching games with my grandfather, and my uncle even got me a subscription to their newspaper - the Blue & Gold. When they sucked, it made losing Charlie even worse.

The Patriots quickly filled the (rather large) vacancy with an Offensive Assistant that few had heard of before in Josh McDaniels. In 2005, the Patriots offense struggled compared to the success they had seen under Weis. Granted they had just about the single worst WR corps ever assembled, but still. 2006 showed some signs of progress, but with limited talent and further growing pains, McDaniels was still no Charlie. Then along came 2007 and the new year brought some new toys in Randy and Wes - and a whole slew of new NFL records. Charlie who? All was right in the world until the game that shall not be discussed. Expectations were as high as could be to start 2008, for all of 0:08 seconds. Without Tom, McDaniels continued to shine - keeping the Pats offense running in high gear with a QB who hadn't started a game since High School.

The excitement of Brady's return in 2009 was tempered by the departure of his friend and new star of the coaching staff to Denver. Speculation was abound on who would replace McDaniels, and the answer was...well...no one, technically speaking. Belichick would not name an Offensive Coordinator, but another relatively unknown Offensive Assistant would be calling the plays, this time it was to be Bill O'Brien. The offense regressed as a whole in 2009, which of course can be partially contributed to Brady's recovery - but what I'll remember most about that season is how well their putrid performance against Baltimore in the playoffs summed up the offense. I remember reading several articles after that game in which Baltimore defenders boasted how they knew what plays were coming before the snap for the majority of the game. Were they stealing signs? No, we ruined that for everyone. The Pats offense was the single worst thing an offense can be - predictable. And one dimensional. This O'Brien kid sucks.

In an effort to shorten this article, I'll assume anyone reading this article knows about the past two seasons. The early season trade of Randy in 2010, that O'Brien and the offense overcame to go 14-2; the emergence of the studliest TE combo in all of football; and the continued growth and creativity of O'Briens play calling throughout 2011. Now it was time for him to leave. And so it appeared a disconcerting trend was in full effect when it came to Pats Offensive Coordinators:
a.) Promote from within following departure
b.) Suck Year 1
c.) Make some progress Year 2, but not elite
d.) Be great Year 3
e.) Leave
I, for one was not excited to see who the "Next Man Up" was this time around. I mean Tom only has some many years of being the Greatest Quarterback of All Time left, so I wasn't ready to suck for two years while they broke in a new O.C..

When rumors started swirling about a possible McDaniels return, I tried to treat it the same way I do every time the Pats have two first round picks - be excited, but keep your expectations low. Very low. Then this. Then this:

So yes, I just took about 2,000 words to explain how I feel about Josh McDaniels' return and give you a history lesson you already knew, when McLovin did it in all of 6 seconds. You're the sucker who read it.

Wildcard Weekend

2012-01-07T08:53:00.000-08:00

Ahh the most bittersweet time of year. The hoopla of the holidays has past, and all that stands between us and a long winter are 11 games of the most entertaining sport being played at the highest level. All due respect to March Madness, the NFL Playoffs are the single greatest event in all of sports from this perspective. You will see records, bones and hearts broken; unimaginable plays of every variety and one team crowned as world champs. It all starts this weekend, so sit back and enjoy.

AFC

Cincy @ Houston (Sat - 4:30pm)
These two teams met back in Week 14 in Cincy, culminating in a T.J. Yates to Kevin Walter TD with 0:02 left for the 20-19 win. The crowd at Paul Brown stadium that day was the second smallest in the history of the stadium. The crowd was even smaller than one of the University of Cincinnati's home games - yes, the University of Cincinnati - so I'm picking Houston just based on principle.

But seriously, this is the toughest pick for Wildcard Weekend in my opinion. Both teams have top notch defenses; rookie QB's and plenty of question marks. Houston boasts the best running back tandem in the NFL (Arian Foster and Ben Tate), along with one of the best offensive lines in the league. It is the first ever playoff game in the franchise history, so the atmosphere at Reliant Stadium should be Seattle-esque. I would love a Cincy win so the Pats could avoid playing Pittsburgh next weekend; but with a healthy Andre Johnson, the home crowd, and their aggressive D Houston is the pick.

Houston 17 - Cincy 16

Pittsburgh @ Denver (Sun 4:30pm)
Jesus Jr. vs. Roethelisberger. Denver's fairy tale season has sputtered of late, losing the last 3 games, as teams seem to have figured out the Tebow offense and the defense hasn't been as opportunistic. However, Pittsburgh lost Rashard Mendenhall for the season (not that he did much this year anyway), Roethelisberger has a high ankle sprain and All-Pro center Pouncey is hobbled. All that said, Pitt is a far better team and I don't see the sputtering Denver offense putting up enough points to pull this one out. Although, if the game is close in the 4th quarter...watch out.

Pittsburgh 20 - Denver 10

NFC

Detroit @ N'awlins (Sat - 8:00pm)
If you like points, the most entertaining match up of Round 1. Mr. Brees is playing on another level and Stafford has stepped his game up of late (not to mention he has the biggest freak in the NFL as his #1 target). The undisciplined Lions cost themselves over 200 yards in penalties in their last visit to New Orleans. If I didn't hate their putz of a coach so much I might say that they'll clean it up this time around, but I don't like Jim Schwartz so no. Not to mention the Saints are in the dome:

P.S. - watch Jonathan Vilma because he is a beast.

New Orleans 41 - Detroit 27

Atlanta @ NYG (Sun - 1:00pm)
Whether you believe in destiny or not, there is no denying that some seasons there are teams that get "lucky" and catch all the breaks on the way to the Super Bowl. The '05 Steelers survived vs. the Colts because Bob Sanders' wife decided to stab him in the leg the morning of the game, leaving him a step slow and allowing Roethelisberger to trip him up and save a surfire fumble return TD and win the game (followed by the least entertaining Super Bowl of all time). The "Tuck Rule" in '01, and countless other examples. As much as it pains me to say this, the Giants have that feel this year. Now I'm not saying they're going to win the Super Bowl (God do I hope not), but they certainly have enough luck rolling to make it past Round 1.

The D-line is undeniably one of the best in the league at rushing the passer, and Jason Pierre-Paul has emerged as one of the elite overall players at his position. My fingers won't allow me to type about Eli in a positive light, but lets just say he doesn't look like himself this year. All that coupled with the fact that Matt Ryan is running the show for Atlanta adds up to a Giants win. Shit.

NYG 23 - Atlanta 17

Baaaaahahahaha

2012-01-04T18:15:00.000-08:00

In need of a good laugh after a few long days of work to welcome you back from the holidays? Me too.

Rex on Feb. 24th, 2011

Rex on Jan. 2nd, 2012

Surreal scene as Jets clean lockers, changes loom.

You could read the whole article, or just the one part you need to know:

"He was crying"

Way to go 8-8 after guaranteeing a Super Bowl asshat.

Game 16 - Today Redemption is spelled P-A-T's

2011-12-31T07:50:00.000-08:00

Hello old friends, Landies here just checking in to let all the SBS readers know that we have not been shut down by the FCC, CIA, CTU, or any other organization. I'd like to congratulate XMark and myself for both getting new "real" jobs, where we have to do actual work on the job rather than blog. That coupled with writing nearly 40 pages of papers for my finals led to my Baxter like disappearance. But fear not - just like Baxter, I have returned to eat a whole wheel of cheese and befriend the Kodiak's to save the day. Or just write about the Patriots. Although perhaps I should just stay away seeing how the Pats have thrown together a nice little winning streak during my hiatus. Anywho, I have plans for quite a few posts over the next several weeks, but today we'll just touch on a few brief topics regarding the Bills.

Allow me to be the 854563168th person to compare this weeks game to the "Lawyer Milloy Bowl" from 2003 - the year when Belichick cut Lawyer before week one, shortly followed by Buffalo kicking our ass 31-0 on opening day - highlighted (lowlighted?) by 350+lb Sam Adams returning an INT for a TD (and one of the more feeble moments of Brady's career). Things came full circle in the NFL world, as the Pats came back to beat Buffalo by the same 31-0 score in Week 17 en route to their 2nd Lombardi Trophy. This of course was the last time the Bills beat N.E. until Brady's 4 INT debacle way back in Week 3 when people still thought Buffalo was good. Buffalo came out of the gates at 5-2, signed Ryan Fitzpatrick to a $59 million extension (yes, you read that correctly), and promptly shit the bed - now standing at 6-9.
The losses of Fred Jackson (2nd in the NFL in total yards when he went out) and All-Pro DT Kyle Williams obviously played a big role in this downfall; but this is not the same opponent we saw way back in September. Even though the Bills look like a pushover of an opponent, I expect to see the "full 60 minute effort" that every Patriot has been preaching for the past month.

A few more notes from Sundays game:

The #1 seed is important mainly because of the struggles of Baltimore (3-4 on the road and 8-0 at home) and Pittsburgh (4-3 on the road and 7-1 at home).
We've seen the Pats set hundreds of impressive records over the past decade, but here is on that is on the opposite end of the spectrum: If the Patriots give up 135 passing yards on Sunday, they will set the single season record for most passing yards allowed. Considering they've given up nearly 300 yards passing per game this season, I'd say this record stands a pretty good chance at falling. Great job guys.
Brady is set to become one of only 3 QB's ever (4 if Rodgers reaches the milestone today) to throw for over 5,000 yards in a season. He is having an MVP caliber season, posting absurd numbers and carrying the D, but is being overshadowed by Rodgers and Brees. He also need 4 TD's to reach the 40 TD mark on the year.
While the loss of Fred Jackson was clearly a huge blow for the Bills, it has allowed C.J. Spiller a chance to shake the "bust" label that was quickly being assigned to his name after a dismal rookie season. Spiller has shown plenty of the explosive play-making ability that made him such a high draft pick last year. I looks for the Pats to key on Spiller on defense, making him priority number one.
Both Spikes and Chung will be active for the first time in over a month today, so it will be nice to see them get some warm up action for the postseason. Also something to watch - with the quality play of Dane Fletcher over the past couple weeks, will Spikes get the start or has Fletcher done enough to secure the role?
A non-Patriots note: today marks the final game of Jason Taylor's career. Always a Pats nemesis, Taylor was one of the best at his position throughout his career, a top notch leader and hopefully can deliver one last knockout blow to the Jets playoff hopes today.

On that note, I'll see you all in this space over the next several weeks. I wish you a Happy and Healthy 2012 and here's hoping the world doesn't end.

Bring out your short stops!

2011-12-07T17:09:00.001-08:00

Pretty exciting Winter Meetings this year, no? Aside from the Miami Marlins' (gonna take some getting used to) spending spree and the Albert Pujols derby, there has been some closer musical chairs, a rush on mediocre utility infielders, some smaller trades and a couple players (Papi) tucking their tales between their legs and accepting arbitration to come back to their old teams.

One very interesting development that could have an impact on the Red Sox is that the top 2 short stops on the market, Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins, are about to come off the market. Reyes took Miami's sweet sweet tax-payer-robbed-stadium money and Rollins appears to be heading back to the Phillies. What that leaves on the free agent market is Rafael Furcal and a bunch of players that probably belong in Eric Idle's wheel barrow (with Miguel Tejada playing the role of the dude saying "I'm not dead yet!") and a lot of teams needing to replace equally decaying options.

Enter Boston. The Red Sox find themselves in a position of relative strength with 2 and a half short stops on the big league team (Mike Aviles should not be considered a full time option) and the hopeful short stop of the future knocking on the major league door. With David Ortiz back (he is going to accept arbitration), Kevin Youkilis will likely stay at third base so the Red Sox are left with Jed Lowrie and Marco Scutaro fighting for the starting SS gig. Both players have been injury prone and neither is very expensive so the team could just hang onto both. But with Aviles as a backup and Jose Iglesias possibly joining the team after the All-Star break or in September, Boston can seriously think about trading Scutaro or Lowrie. Both offer a team in need a serious improvement over the remaining free agent options save for Furcal. So let's see if we can match up one of our guys with a team in need and see if they have some useful pitching to send back in a deal (because let's be honest, pitching is really the top need of this Boston team).

First, a list of all the teams that need a short stop, as I see it:
Baltimore
Minnesota
Oakland
Seattle
Mets
Atlanta
Milwaukee
St. Louis
Pittsburgh
Houston
San Fran

Right away, I think we can cross Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Houston off the list. They are all either just starting to rebuild or still rebuilding. Scutaro would definitely not be a fit and though Lowrie is youngish (28 next year), he is entering his first year of arbitration so he's not totally cheap, so I don't think he'd be a fit for these teams.

Minnesota has enough (shitty) options to make do at short so they should be out. Seattle has Brendan Ryan who is one of the game's best defensive short stops; they seem to understand the value of strong defense at premium positions, but if they decide this is a position where they want more offense they could pick up the phone and call Ben Cherington, but I doubt it. Ditto Oakland and Cliff Pennington (unless they want Lowrie at third).

That leaves 5 teams that could be intrigued by Lowrie or Scutaro if they whiff on Furcal. Here they are in reverse order of who I think is the best fit (not necessarily the most likely to make a deal):

5) Mets
I have seen conflicting reports saying the Mets are looking to deal anybody that isn't bolted down (David Wright) and that the Mets are not ready to tear it all down. In the former case, the Mets probably aren't a fit, unless teams view Lowrie as a short stop of the future type. In the latter, Scutaro would be a great fit. The Mets just lost one of their franchise players (Reyes) and have someone they think could be his replacement in Ruben Tejada. Tejada will be just 22 years old this year. He had a decent season last year filling in for the injured Reyes, but I think he could use more seasoning in AAA. The Mets have been notorious for rushing their prospects the last half decade so they probably see him as their starter next year, but Scutaro would provide them a great opportunity to be patient.

The Mets have some interesting pitching options to send back to the Sox in the bullpen and the rotation. 25-year old Jonathan Niese is the best starter available, but Scutaro won't bring him to Boston. R.A. Dickey would be a really cool addition because he is Tim Wakefield's knuckle ball heir and could spend a season learning from Wake, but Scutaro still probably is not enough. Bobby Parnell was given the opportunity to close last year, but blew 6 saves in 12 chances so the Mets went out and signed two potential new closers. He has a high strike out rate and he puts a lot of men on base, but I think he'd be worth a look. He'd be my target.

4) St. Louis
Had I wrote this yesterday when it looked like Pujols was going to Miami, I would have put St. Louis number 1. If the team lost Albert they probably would have used their money to improve their rotation in the form of Mark Buerhle, C.J. Wilson or Edwin Jackson and would have had some pitchers to trade. Now, with Pujols coming back they probably can't afford any of those pitchers (especially Buerhle, because, you know, he's not a free agent anymore) so they do not have as much starting depth to trade. In addition, I see this as the most likely landing spot for Furcal, who won a long overdue World Series ring with the team last year.

3) San Fran
I've long since given up trying to figure out what Brian Sabean thinks when putting together his teams. He did an incredible job drafting Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner (not to mention Buster Posey), but seems to have no idea how to put together an offense. The team wasted so many roster spots on aging veterans who can't hit last year that they failed to capitalize on the second best pitching staff in baseball. Right now they appear poised to give the job to 25-year old Brandon Crawford. The same Brandon Crawford who posted a triple slash line of .204/.288/.296 last year.

Should Sabean decide that offense is a priority (because it is), they have some good bullpen arms to deal for Scutaro including Jeremy Affeldt, Javy Lopez (former Sox) and, my choice, Sergio Romo and his 13.1 strike outs per nine. Since Sabean looooooooooooves veterans, Scutaro is the more likely target. However, if I were running the Giants, I would target Lowrie. And if I were simultaneously running the Red Sox (a boy can dream, it is the holidays) I would only take Romo for Lowrie.

2) Atlanta
The Braves are cheap. Let's just get that out of the way. In that event, they will most likely settle for one of the bottom of the barrel players on the market like Orlando Cabrera or Alex Gonzalez again (to Red Sox fans that long for these players, they are nowhere near what they used to be). They are another offense-starved team that could really use either Scutaro or Lowrie, but with Scutaro's $6 million salary and Lowrie entering arbitration, the Braves could be scared off. Lucky for us, the Red Sox have a lot of money and could afford to kick in some money in any deal with the Braves.

Atlanta could part with Kris Medlen, Peter Moylan or lefty Eric O'Flaherty for Scutaro with that aforementioned money kicked in. OR, the Sox could aim for a starting pitcher like Mike Minor or Jair Jurjens (I prefer Minor) if they want to expand the deal to include either Ryan Kalish or Josh Reddick and a prospect. This is unlikely, but it is definitely my favorite option if they could make it work. A starter would be a much more important add to this team than a bullpen arm, especially a young one.

1) Milwaukee
Let's run through what it takes for a team to make a trade one more time:

A need: The Brewers employed Yuni Betancourt at short last year, one of the worst players in baseball for several years now. Their top two shortstops in the minors last year were 16 and 29 years old.
Money: The team is probably not going to bring back Prince Fielder; they whiffed on Jimmy Rollins (and will probably whiff on Furcal); they may or may not bring in Aramis Ramirez to play third but that shouldn't break the bank.
Assets: The Brewers had a very good bullpen last year that they improved at the deadline with the acquisition of Francisco Rodriguez, who is now a free agent. Except, reports are that he is set to accept the Brewers offer of arbitration tonight, meaning he will return to the team on a 1-year deal, likely north of $10 million. I think the man formerly known as K-Rod is the perfect return for Marco Scutaro. The Sox would only take on $4-7 million in this deal. The Brewers get a solid short stop on a 1 year deal so they free up money in subsequent years to extend either Shaun Marcum or Zack Greinke, or both. Finally, the Sox get a motivated K-Rod in either the 8th or 9th inning looking to prove that he can close again and get a bigger contract in 2012 when the closer market shouldn't be as flooded as this year. With the differences in salary, the Sox may even be able to ask for a second bullpen arm that would deepen the pen. If I am Ben Cherington, I am eagerly waiting K-Rod's arbitration decision. Like when Rafael Soriano accepted the Braves arbitration in 2007, the Brewers are unlikely to want to keep a setup man at that price.

Of course, the Sox will probably trade Aviles to the Pirates for Evan Meek. Who's excited for 2012?

This guy

Looks Great: Game 10 vs. the Chefs

2011-11-21T18:15:00.000-08:00

I'm going to get this out of the way quick; like pulling off a band-aid:

The Patriots haven't played Kansas City since opening day 2008 when......eughhhhh. Damn you Bernard Pollard.

We've all heard the Chiefs dubbed "Patriots: West" or some other stupid monicker to acknowledge the connections between the franchises. This has always slightly annoyed me. The most obvious of these connections is of course the architect - Scott Pioli - who together with Belichick built the foundation for the most successful franchise of the century. Another well known tie is K.C. Defensive Coordinator Romeo Crennell, who served in the same capacity in New England. Romeo had a brief stop as head coach in Cleveland between N.E. and K.C. - where he didn't yell, smile, blink, nod, move or possibly even breath once while on camera. Of course there was Matt Cassell as well, but he got hurt last week and is likely to miss the remainder of the season. Those are some strong connections - GM, starting QB and D.C. - but I never thought it warranted the nickname, until I read how deep the ties are between the two teams. Seriously? 12 people with significant roles on both teams, including the one and only O.T.I.S.? I remember loving Otis Smith as a kid because of his gangsta introduction and continued on after his huge INT in the first Super Bowl vs. St. Louis (in his hometown of 'Nawlins). Anyway, after reading that article I came to appreciate just how much the Chiefs are Patriots West. And that doesn't even take into consideration Brian Waters, who played 12 years with K.C. and is now dominating opposing D-linemen for the Pats. Ok, enough about that, onto the game.

I suppose that with Pioli running the show, it's no surprise that Kansas City is home to many of my favorite non-Patriots in the league. A brief run down on some of them in no particular order:

CB Brandon Flowers: In my opinion Flowers is the most underrated corner in the NFL. He has the skills to shut down the best receivers in the game and big play ability. Look for him to be matched up on Welker for most of the game Monday (although he has been limited in practice with a back injury)
OLB Tamba Hali: He will be the most important player on Kansas City tonight. One of the best pass rushers in the league, and a scary scary man to have chasing Tom. The only thing against him is that he is a Penn State alum. If he gets caught "bear hugging" Brady tonight can we add that to the charges against Sandusky? Let's just hope that he didn't learn too much from Jerry and keeps his clothes on. And that it's not in the shower...Too far?
S Eric Berry: Last years First Round draft pick had an outstanding rookie year, creating an elite tandem with Flowers - but is on IR this year, so we won't get to see him tonight.
RB Jamaal Charles: Possibly the most explosive RB in the NFL and a legitimate threat to score every time he touches the ball. He runs with a similar patient style to Chris Johnson, you know, back when CJ2K was good. Also disappointingly on IR; although I'm very happy the Pats D won't have to worry about him tonight
Sabby Piscitelli: I don't know much about him other than that he has a kick ass name
Not among my favorites, but two other players of note: LB Derrick Johnson has upped his level of play over the past few seasons, showing the talent that made him the Chiefs #1 pick back in '05. Also DE Tyson Jackson plays very consistently on the edge. He was Pioli's first ever pick with K.C. and fits the prototypical DE mold of Ty Warren/Big Rich.

When healthy, this K.C. defense is loaded with talent and when matched with Romeo's coaching can be a formidable foe. Fortunately they're pretty banged up tonight, which should make Tom & Co.'s job a bit easier. The Pats have been a bit sluggish in the running game over the past few games, so lets hope they jump out to an early lead and get Benny and Ridley back on track.

Offensively, Kansas City will be led by the one and only Tyler Palko. Some of Palko's career highlights include: playing in the UFL and CFL, and once upon a time being cut by a team named the California Redwoods. No word from my research team yet if he played in the XFL to complete the trifecta before his NFL debut tonight. Of course he is going up against the banged up (as if they weren't struggling enough already) Pats secondary, so we may be comparing Palko to Joe Montana come tomorrow morning. His one claim to fame is that he beat out Joe Flacco for the starting job at Pitt, leading to Flacco's transfer to Delaware. I'm not all too concerned about this match up, but the Chiefs do have some good receivers - Dwayne Bowe has been a beast the past few seasons and rookie Jonathan Baldwin has looked impressive of late, with catches like this.

One area not to overlook is the return game - Javier Arenas and Dexter McCluster are big play threats and could be the equalizer that K.C. needs to stay in the game tonight. The Patriots have a mind boggling 18 players on their injury report this week; many of them key special teams contributors - so this bears watching. Although, they did hold the Jets top ranked return team in check last week, so maybe I just don't know what I'm talking about.

This game has all the makings of a traditional "trap game" - coming of a huge road win against the Jets and looking forward to a tough match up at the Eagles. Excitement amongst fans seems to be lower than normal, and a win assumed to be assured. But this is where Belichick shows why he's better than all other coaches; keeping his team focused against an inferior opponent and not letting an opportunity to get a firm grasp on the AFC East slip away. The defense should continue to improve against a struggling Chiefs offense, and New England will look to re-establish their ground game in what should be a relatively easy victory.

Oh, also that is not a typo in the title - just homage to one of my favorite commercials from when I was a kid. Every time I see K.C., I can't help but think of that commercial and laugh.

Patriots 34 - Chiefs 17

Hello New Friend: Third Base

2011-11-21T10:40:00.000-08:00

NOTE: The views expressed in this post are almost entirely my own opinion and are not based on any rumors or reports of the team's actual intent.

Red Sox fans got down on Theo Epstein for some of the high profile moves he made in his tenure in Boston. I don't need to run through the list because Dan Shaughnessy has used the list in each of his last 59 columns about the team. These free agent busts don't bother me so much because the team has the budget to absorb these contracts while they were also turning out high impact prospects. Two transactions that I want to focus on as Theo settles into the friendly confines involved the same player: Adrian Beltre.

Beltre was brought in on a make-good-1-year-deal after a disappointing final season in Seattle. Despite his down offensive numbers in that last season, Beltre was one of, if not, the best defensive third basemen in baseball and there were good indications that his right-handed power would play much better in Fenway Park than in Safeco Fielld. The gamble paid off as Beltre turned in the second best season of his career, leading the league in doubles and playing his usual amazing defense. Then Theo traded for Adrian Gonzalez to take over first base and he had a decision to make: pick up David Ortiz's one year option and move Kevin Youkilis back to his original position or decline the option and make an effort to bring Beltre back and play Youk full time at DH. Well, those of us who watched the playoffs this year and saw Beltre smash 5 home runs on the way to the AL Pennant know how that turned out.

So now, Theo's replacement, Ben Cherington, is left with another decision: allow Youk the Incumbant (that'd be a cool name for a modern day politician, kinda like Alexander the Great or Attila the Hun) to hold down the hot corner or shift him to DH where he can rest his aging body.

To examine the options, I am going to compare the players to Saturday Night Live cast members. With Eddie Murphy's recent resurgence (which appears to be short lived after Tower Heist bombed and Eddie decided to pull out of hosting the Oscars) I have been watching a lot of SNL, especially old ones. I have come to realize just how unfunny a lot of those episodes were even at the supposed heights of the original cast and Eddie's peak. Maybe it's just a sign of the times, but the Phil Hartman and Will Ferrell led casts were much more funny in my opinion. Anyway, onto the third base options.

Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
The current star of the internal options, Youk may follow Chevy Chase in being a one-year wonder. Chevy left SNL after just one year to pursue a lucrative (if brief) movie career. Youk may be wise to do the same. I've discussed it before, but he has the potential to mirror Edgar Martinez's career path if he makes the shift to DH full time this year. I really don't think his body is in the position to handle the rigors of playing third base, but he can still be an excellent hitter and a big part of this team. If I am calling the shots, I am planting his ass on the bench when the team takes the field.

Jed Lowrie, Red Sox
Lowrie is another guy I have written about before. He may not have been the savior I was saying he'd be, but he is very useful. Like Dan Aykroyd, Lowrie will probably never be a star, but he has a set of skills that allow him to be very valuable. Aykroyd is one of the most versatile actors ever to be on SNL, but was always left in the shadow of Chase, Belushi and Murray. Lowrie is similarly versatile and also shadowed by home grown stars like Ellsbury, Pedroia and Youkilis. His defense may be stretched thin at short, but at third it could be an asset. He's got a little bit of power and some on base abilities. His biggest problem is staying healthy so he may not be an option as the full time starter at third. But with Youk still around and the next guy on the list possibly hanging around as well, Lowrie could take the majority of the time and receive some days off to preserve his health.

Mike Aviles, Red Sox
Aviles gets the unwanted mantle of the Garrett Morris of the internal options. Some readers may not even know who Morris is because he was never given much to do besides being the token black guy on a TV show that existed in a still racist TV landscape. But he wasn't completely without his uses, especially the "News for the Hard of Hearing" sketch. Aviles also has his uses, namely his speed, power and versatility. I would not want him as the full time starter, but if someone can teach him how to run the bases, he could be a useful guy to have around as a super-utility player.

Will Middlebrooks, Minor Leaguer
Murray was not an original cast member. He was brought in to replace Chevy, which he did better than anyone could have hoped. Middlebrooks really broke out this year, hitting 23 homers in just 439 at bats. He will be just 23 this season and struggled in a brief appearance in AAA. My guess is he starts the season there this year, but we could see him in September. He has some OBP issues and he strikes out a lot so he may never become a valuable Major Leaguer, but the power appears to be real so he is worth keeping an eye on. For now, he is a not ready for prime time player.

Aramis Ramirez, Free Agent
That picture is of Michael McKean. He joined the cast in 1994 after already having a long and well established career (Laverne and Shirley, This is Spinal Tap, Clue, Short Circuit 2). He was 47 years old when he became a full time player. Ramirez has had a long and well established career as well. The Cubs basically stole him from the Pirates as a 25 year old who already had a 34 HR season under his belt. For 8 years, he was one of the best hitters in the Cubs lineup and last year bounced back after a tough 2010. He could go on to have some good years in the twilight of his career (like McKean did with Best in Show and A Mighty Wind), but he seems too risky to me and his defense at third is very sub par.

Michael Cuddyer, Free Agent
That picture is of Harry Shearer (and Martin Short) in one of my favorite ever SNL sketches, the "Men's Synchronized Swimming" sketch. Shearer is even more versatile than Aykroyd because of his incredible voice. He is one of the main voice actors on The Simpsons and has partnered with McKean and Christopher Guest to basically invent and perfect the "mockumentary." But he is definitely not a well known star. I wrote about Cuddyer in my right field analysis and the same holds true here. Love the versatility, but I don't think his bat plays well in a corner position and I think he will be paid more than he is really worth. I also would not be surprised if the Sox brought him on board.

Martin Prado, Braves
Anthony Michael Hall had 4 successful movies (16 Candles, Breakfast Club, Weird Science, Vacation) before joining SNL at just 17 years old. Martin Prado has had 3 successful seasons (2008-2010 OPS+ 18% above league average) and is just 28 years old. Some similarities there, but the key similarity comes in the fact that Hall was a terrible fit for SNL and Prado would be an equally bad fit as the new Sox third baseman. Prado is a good player and he has that key word "versatility" I keep mentioning, but his career high in HR is 15 and walks is 40. This is not the profile of a third baseman for a top offense. He has been mentioned in a lot of trade rumors (not involving the Sox, though) and has plenty of experience at third, but I just can't see it. In fact, after his down season last year, he may follow Hall in another way: falling into complete obscurity.

David Wright, Mets
As the best player on this list, I was tempted to give Wright the Eddie Murphy spot. But let's be honest, unless we are talking Mike Schmidt or George Brett, no third baseman can compare to Eddie's SNL stint. So instead we will go with the man who was rejected from SNL originally only to return almost 10 years later after a successful stand-up career and a star turn on Soap. For the first 5 years of his career, everything pointed toward Wright being an all time great. He hit over .300 every full season, increased his home run totals almost every year, stayed healthy and played excellent defense. Then, when Citi Field opened, he posted 10 HR in a full season. The next year, the power returned but the average and elite OBP took a tumble. The next year, the health disappeared as well. Now we don't know what to expect of this once steady and amazing player. With the Mets not bringing Jose Reyes back and facing financial issues thanks to the Wilpons and Bernie Madoff, Wright could be had for the right package. I'm just not sure the Sox would have what it takes to bring him on board. If the Mets get desperate I would definitely try to trade for him, but I don't know if that will ever come. My guess is any potential package would start with Jose Iglesias, but with the way the short stop market looks right now the team can't afford to give that up.

What to do, what to do?
Once again, I think the option is to stay internal (boring, I know). I really don't like the free agent options and I think Wright would cost too much in talent to bring on board. The best options as I see them is either give Youk one more chance to prove he can handle the position (I doubt he can though) or shift him to DH and let Lowrie and Aviles take the job. The position may take a hit on offense in that event, but the improvements that Lowrie and Aviles may offer on defense, plus a healthy and productive Youk at DH should make the move a net zero. We have to remember that this team should have won between 95 and 98 games last year, so we do not need to make big improvements. As long as we hold steady at most positions while improving some intangibles, those 95 wins (and thus a playoff spot) should still be within reach.

Bonus
Here is a funny video from this past week's SNL with host Jason Seigel:

Hello New Friend: Closer

2011-11-18T06:18:00.001-08:00

NOTE: The views expressed in this post are almost entirely my own opinion and are not based on any rumors or reports of the team's actual intent.

"Shipping up to Philly" just does not have the same ring as "shipping up to Boston," does it? As most of you have heard by now, Jonathan Papelbon has taken that sweet Philly money to blow, I mean close out 1-0 gems spun by Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels. For $50 million over 4 years, the Phillies are the latest team to gamble that their reliever will be the second exception (Rivera being the other) to the rule that signing relievers to long term deals is a bad idea. I have definitely advocated for the Red Sox to bring him back for 3 or 4 years before, but now that I see that contract in print, I think I may have had a momentary lack of judgement.

With his departure, there are two key questionsthat need to be answered. The second, which I will get to in a moment, is whocloses for Boston next year? The first and most important is what local songdoes Pap choose as his new entrance music? One obvious choice would be Motown Philly by Boyz II Men, but thatdoesn’t seem to have the ability to pump someone up. Will Smith has a long and illustriouscatalog (Boom Shake the Room wouldcertainly get me going), but I don’t think even Pap would have the hubris todeface this legend. John Coltrane called Philly home, but I would guess Papunderstands the intricacies of jazz about as well as he understands theintricacies of the English language. Patti Labelle and her heir apparent JillScott are options, but not realistic. PhiladelphiaFreedom by Elton John would be cool, but last I checked Elton was fromsomewhere east of Philly so it doesn’t follow the Dropkick rule. Joan Jett’s I Love Rock and Roll could be cool, but Papdoesn’t seem the one to cross gender lines and seek equality. Hall and Oats isalso an option, but in the homophobic culture of baseball, I don’t think Maneater would fly. So if he is stickinglocal, that really only leaves one option, though I really don’t like the songor the band: Bloodhound Gang’s Bad Touch.

Now that we got that important decision out of the way, let’slook at who may be taking the mound in the mythical closer’s role this year.Since I am still celebrating Movember (donate here: http://mobro.co/sexybostonsports) I am going to break thecandidates down into categories based on famous moustachioed men.

Tom Selleck: The Pantheon of Moustache

Nobody

I only include this category to show off perfection and toexplain that there is nobody available that is close to the pantheon ofclosers. The only closer of the last 20 years who we could comfortably compareto the Selleck Stache is Mariano Rivera (fittingly, his nickname is “Mo”). Evenbefore Pap signed, I would not have put him in this spot. Closers not named “Mo”are extremely volatile, so even when you find one of the top ones of the lastcouple years, chances are he will have some ups and downs over the length of along-term contract. Keep this in mind if your team signs a reliever for 3 yearsor more.

Ron Swanson: The Current Elite

Ryan Madson, Free Agent; Heath Bell, Free Agent; Daniel Bard, Red Sox

This group of pitchers has been consistently excellent overthe last couple years and should have a few more years of effectiveness inthem. Like Ron Swanson, they are not household names, but they do all theimportant things you need.

Bell has the most closing experience and is the oldest ofthis group (34). Since the Mets stupidly traded him to San Diego 4 years ago,he has been absolutely lights out. He has saved over 40 games the last 3 years,if you are into that sorta thing (I am not). There are a few big red flagshere, however. In 2009-10 his strike outs per 9 was 10.6, but it dropped to 7.3per 9 this year. Reports I have read say this is due to a decrease in fastballvelocity. The other issue is that he likes to pitch up in the zone, a strategythat works wonders in the expanses of Petco Park, but may not fly in thesmaller Fenway. I think he also wants to stay in San Diego so he would probablybe expensive to pry away.

Madson became the odd man out when the Phillies signed Pap.This is what Keith Law (Insider Only), ESPN writer and former Blue Jays scout, has to sayabout Madson:

I'd give him more money and more years than any other reliever on this market, and I think he has the best chance to defy the high attrition rates that characterize his brethren of the bullpen. He throws hard, misses bats with his changeup, pounds the strike zone (eight unintentional walks in 2011, 10 the year before) and is as good a bet as anyone on this market to avoid arm injury.

I fully agree with Law. People said that Madson "couldn't handle the job" because he had never done it before and then when he was finally given the opportunity he continued to be lights out. Another case of people overstating the value of the "closer" tag. Madson was reportedly close to a 4-year $44 million contract with the Phillies before they signed Pap. If it takes 4 years to get him done, I would avoid him, but 3 should be good.

People seem to be down on Bard because of the 9 losses hetook on the season. His ERA also jumped from 1.93 to 3.33 from ’10 to ’11. Thishas led to questions about whether or not he can “close” and if he has thementality for it. I think this is all a bunch of crap and don’t see any reasonwhy he shouldn’t be able to. If you look beyond losses and his ERA, his WHIP, HR/9, SO/9,BB/9 and SO/BB were all equal or better last year than the year before. I willadmit that in pressure situations he was not as good as he was the year before,but the fact remains that he was excellent in these situations the year before.What this really shows is not that Bard can’t handle the job, but thatrelievers fluctuate greatly year to year with their situational pitching. Thefact that Bard was able to maintain his talent level even though he didn’tmaintain the performance in pressure situations is encouraging. If I wererunning the team, I would be handing Bard the ball in the 9^th (well,if I were running the team, I would hand the ball to Bard in whatever was themost difficult situation in the game, like a tie game in the 7^thwith the bases loaded).

Carl Weathers: Underrated Group

Joel Hanrahan, Pirates; Huston Street, Rockies; Fransisco Rodriguez, Free Agent

I’m gonna get real with you for a second. Black men do notget their due for excellent moustaches. Look at Carl Weathers up there. Whatdoesn’t he have that white moustache greats like Selleck, Swanson and Mercurydo have? I admit that I am inherently biased towards white moustaches, but Idon’t know why. Black men can sport a luscious mound of lip cover just as wellas white men can and it is a damn shame they don’t get credit for this. We have a black presidentnow, guys, we have to get with the times.

Hanrahan and Street are the most intriguing tradecandidates. Hanrahan is a former high strikeout/high walk fireballer whochanged his approach this year and became a much better pitcher. His strikeoutswere down, but so were his walks and he learned how to keep the ball on theground this year. He only allowed 1 HR last year, which isn’t sustainable, butI think he would be a great fit on this team and in this ballpark. The Piratesmay be unwilling to trade him, though, because they have some (delusional)designs on contending this year.

If hitters who put up huge numbers in Colorado get instantlydiscounted for their work, why is it that pitchers don’t automatically getbonus points for surviving the mile high air? Street was traded to Colorado 3years ago and has maintained the same excellent strike out to walk ratio he hadin Oakland (he set a personal best last year with a 6.11 ratio). Where he hassuffered is in giving up extra base hits. He went from one of the most pitcherfriendly ball parks in Oakland to one of the most hitter friendly in Coloradoand his ERA predictably went up. To me, he still seems like the above averagecloser from his Oakland days and would be a worthy gamble. Colorado appears tobe shopping him as well so they could dangle a groundball specialist from theminors if they have one.

Rodriguez (formerly known as K-Rod) was one of the morerecent closer busts. He suffered from injuries, bad behavior and a drop invelocity during his contract with the Mets, but bounced back to have a solidseason last year. He no longer blows people away with his fastball, but he hasfound a good mix with his fastball and changeup to keep hitters off balance.Teams will probably be looking at him in a set-up role, but a 9^th inningguarantee would probably put him in Boston. For a high value 1-year deal (maybe$7-8 million) I would give him a shot to re-establish his value.

Charlie Chaplin: Damaged Goods

Jonathan Broxton, Free Agent; Joe Nathan, Free Agent; Brad Lidge, Free Agent

Two controversial categories in a row! Chaplin represents the damaged goods group because of his style of moustache. Though he rocked this style first, it is forever condemned for obvious reasons. Michael Jordan (what the H?) has made a valiant effort to take the style back, but it is unclear whether or not the glory can ever be recaptured. Just like these former great closers who have suffered a string of injuries recently.

Broxton was fighting with Papelbon to be the heir apparent to Rivera just 2 seasons ago before injuries took their toll (volatility!). He only pitched in 14 games last year and walked over 6 guys per 9 before he was shut down for the season. He had surgery for bone spurs in his elbow, which is easier to recover from than Tommy John surgery, so he could bounce back a bit. He’s another guy who should have to accept a 1-year deal with some incentives built in. He may be open to working as a set-up guy behind Bard first to prove his health.

Nathan actually was the second best closer in baseball from 2004-09. He struck out a lot of guys, did not walk many, kept home runs down and was excellent in pressure situations. But he missed all of 2010 recovering from Tommy John surgery and missed time in the middle of last year. He was mostly ineffective last year and could be done as an effective reliever period. He did still strike out almost a batter per inning and kept his walks down, but he suffered from some serious gopheritis like never before. I would probably stay away from the 37 year old.

To me, Lidge will always be the guy who served up the 3,000 foot home run to Albert Pujols in the 2005 NLCS. I don't know how he ever recovered from that. He also missed time last year with an elbow injury sufferedin 2010. When he returned, he took his repertoire as a high strikeout/high walkpitcher to a new level. He struck out 10.7 per nine, a little below what he didin his prime, but he also walked 6.1 per nine in his 25 appearances. Yikes. Hedid have a strong September in 12 appearances so he may have gotten his controlback under…control. I think he is the riskiest of all the Chaplin group and Iwould stay away.

Bobby Valentine: Closer Posers (rhyming!)

Fransisco Cordero, Free Agent; Octavio Dotel, Free Agent; Matt Capps, Free Agent

That's your potential new manager, Sox fans! Dale Svuem is looking pretty good right about now, no? This incident came back in 1999 when Bobby V was managingthe Mets. He was ejected late in a game, but apparently was not ready to hitthe showers. So he went to the clubhouse, grabbed a fake moustache (they havethese just lying around the Mets’ clubhouse?) and sun glasses and returned tothe bench. Unsurprisingly, he was caught and suspended. This group of “closers”are like Bobby V’s fake ‘stache: they have qualities of a moustache/closer(hair on the face/saves), but ultimately are not acceptable.

Cordero just finished a 4-year deal with the Reds when theydeclined his 5^th year option for $12 million. Though $12 million isa lot, if you have a strong closer and you are trying to contend, you canaccept a few extra million on a 1-year deal. Red flag number 1. Cordero isbasically riding off the shine of his high save totals. Over the last 4 years,he saved 150 games, 3^rd most in baseball. So does that mean he isthe 3^rd best closer? Absolutely not. If you look at some of hisother stats that relate to his actual talent level you see a middle of the packreliever: Strikeouts 29th; Walks allowed 8th worst; ERA 42nd; ERA+ 41st; OPSallowed 59th; Strike out to walk ratio 280th (YIKES); WPA 33rd (a stat thatmeasures performance in pressure situations). In addition, his fastballvelocity has dropped the last 2 years and it’s movement has increased meaningit is harder to control (more walks). Also, he started throwing his slider morethan ever last year, but it had the least movement on it in his career so it isbecoming more hittable. He’s also 36 and will probably look for at least a2-year deal and closing duties. No. Thank. You.

Dotel was excellent for the Cardinals down the stretch(despite not being deployed properly by Tony LaRussa in the World Series). Heis a phenomenal reliever and I would love to have him on the Red Sox. But notas a closer. A closer needs to be able to dominate righties and lefties equallyand Dotel has pretty extreme splits. Last season, versus lefties he allowed a.845 OPS; against righties it was .410. Definitely try to bring him to Bostonbut keep him away from lefties.

Finally, Matt Capps. I have heard rumors of the Sox beinginterested in Capps, though not as a closer. It’s not surprising that the Soxaren’t blinded by his save numbers from a year ago when he was hilariously anAll Star. What I don’t get is why they would want to bring him in at all? Thepositives are that he is young (still only 28), gets a lot of ground outs anddoes not walk many. The negatives are that despite inducing ground balls healso gives up a lot of home runs, he doesn’t strike many people out, he maycome expensively because of the “proven closer” label, and he doesn’t exactlydominate righties (though he is effective against them). So if they bring himin as a set-up guy he will probably be too expensive and as a situational guyhe lacks any particular situation to be deployed in. Let some team like theRoyals get starry eyed at his save totals, thank you very much.

What to do, what to do?

Give the job to Bard. That is how the team has been groominghim the past 3 years. He has youth, a blazing fastball, a strong slider andchangeup and good numbers. The “closer mentality” is largely a myth and I don’tthink he will have problems stepping into the role. Instead of spending big onMadson or Bell, I would take that money and spread it out over some guys onthis list like K-Rod and Dotel to deepen the bullpen, because that was thebiggest issue last season, a shallow bullpen. As long as the new manager isopen to deploying his best relievers in the toughest situations and BenCherington supplies him with enough talent to mix and match, Bard should be agreat option as the leader of the new bullpen.

Mo' Star of the Day: Trot Nixon

2011-11-16T08:05:00.001-08:00

Please don't forget to donate to prostate cancer research here: http://mobro.co/sexybostonsports
I wanted to move away from those 80's Red Sox for a day (seriously, did anyone besides Roger Clemens not have a 'stache on those teams?) and bring this Mo' Tribute a little more current.

Today's Star is the original Dirt Dawg, Trot Nixon. Or, as Red Sox Nation likes to remember him as, the greatest right fielder Boston ever had because he came right before J.D. Drew. Trot was not a consistent wearer of the 'stache, usually clean shaven or be-goateed, but as you can see here, he did carry the Mo' Flame. Trot is rocking the handle bar moustache, which is often confused with the Fu Manchu. Yes, he does have a little soul patch, but this just confuses the issue more. A handle bar grows out of your face the full way down, while the Fu hangs down from the corner of your lips. The soul patch is inconsequential. Now that we got that out of the way, some fun facts:

Trot's moustache is actually not made of hair follicles. It is all the dirt he accumulated over the years that he absorbed into his skin, bursting back out into this bad-ass style.
Trot averaged 1.23 billion dirt particles on his uniform every year in his 12 year major league career. The only player since WW II to top that average with at least 50 games played per year was David Eckstein, who averaged 1.48 billion dirt particles per season.
Eckstein and Trot also went head to head each season for the most grit displayed by a major leaguer. Trot led the league in '00 and '01 with 49 and 52 grits, respectively, before yielding the crown to Eckstein in '02. They traded titles for the next 4 years before they were both usurped by 5-time-defending grit champion, Dustin Pedroia.
Other categories Trot led the league in at least once: skinned elbows ('01); skinned knees ('03); primal screams ('03 and '04); love of the game ('99); clubhouse presence ('05); right field fielding % ('05); dirtiest helmet (shared with Manny Ramirez from '00 to '06); most worn down patch of outfield grass ('99-'06); callouses ('02) (yes, I included fielding percentage in a list of absurd made up categories. I take it you can tell how I feel about fielding percentage based on this)
Trot was almost traded for Sammy Sosa back in 2000, but the deal fell through. If I remember correctly, the Boston media was against this deal despite Sosa hitting 66 and 63 homers the previous two seasons. Let's compare Trot and Sammy from 2000-2006, Trot's last year in Boston:

TROT - 843 games; 3350 PA; 475 R; 800 H; 180 2B; 23 3B; 118 HR; 25 SB; 400 BB; 542 SO; .278 AVG; .368 OBP; .480 SLG; .849 OPS; OPS+ 17% better than league average
SAMMY - 831 games; 3634 PA; 581 R; 891 H; 149 2B; 9 3B; 252 HR; 10 SB; 467 BB; 825 SO; .286 AVG; .379 OBP; .583 SLG; .962 OPS; OPS+ 47% better than league average

Trot had an unbelievable '03 ALCS against the Yankees, with 3 HR, .333 AVG and 1.179 OPS, including a 2 run HR in game 7 off Clemens.
2003 was his best overall year, posting an OPS+ 49% better than league average (or basically what Sosa did in the final 5 years of his career). That '03 team finished first in baseball in runs scored and routinely had Nixon batting 7th and eventual batting champion Bill Mueller batting 8th.
Only eats meat. No carbs. No vegetables. No dairy. Only meat. That he has killed, personally. With his dirt.
A reporter once told Trot he was the Chuck Norris of the Red Sox. He laughed so violently at the absurdity of this statement that the dirt from his uniform fell off like an avalanche and buried the reporter, who was never to be seen or heard from again. Sadly, the reporter was not named "Shaugnessy."

Let's tip our glasses to the dirtiest dawg to ever patrol the Fenway diamond, Trot Nixon. Your handle bar moustache is truly inspirational.

To conclude, here is a great clip from an episode of Seinfeld when Jerry, George and Kramer all have 'staches because George suggests they, "take a vacation from themselves." Enjoy.

Mo' Star of the Day: Luis Rivera

2011-11-15T06:31:00.001-08:00

Please donate to prostate cancer research here: http://mobro.co/sexybostonsports

I wanted to do a basketball player today, I really did. This site is not just called "Sexy Boston Baseball" and there are certainly some great Celtics' staches to choose from. But in light of yesterday's news that the union is going to decertify, almost ensuring the entire season is canceled, I just can't do it today.

So instead, in a panic move, you get Luis Rivera. From that same late 80's, early 90's Red Sox as Mike "Gator" Greenwell, Rivera manned the short stop position until John Valentin ascended. For some reason, Rivera has always stuck out in my head, maybe because he had a similar look to X Dad in the 80s or maybe he used to make some highlight real plays. Looking back on him now, though, it is pretty sad, because he was pretty terrible. Some fun facts (if you find bad baseball fun; I probably have a Pirate or Royals fan out there right?):

Signed as an amateur free agent out of Puerto Rico in 1981. Puerto Rican players are no longer eligible to be signed as amateur free agents; since 1990 they have been subjected to the June draft just like American and Canadian born players.
Was traded with John Dopson to the Red Sox for Spike Owen in 1988.
Was a TERRIBLE hitter. In a season in which he got at least 50 plate appearances, his highest ever average was .258, OBP .318, SLG .384, OPS .702, OPS + 10% below league average, HR 8, RBI 45, walks 35, hits 107, stolen bases 4.
He has the 46th worst OPS of any short stop since World War II with at least 2000 career plate appearances.
As bad a hitter as he was, he may have been a worse base runner. In his career, he stole 20 total bases. But was caught 22 times. Even David Ortiz has a better success rate, with 11 steals and 7 caught stealings.
So we've established that he can't hit or run, but what about fielding? Well, over his career he was both below average in traditional fielding stats (fielding %) and some advanced ones that we have data for (range factor). So, what would you say ya do here? He must have been a great people person.
Despite a career that spanned 11 seasons, he only earned over $1 million in 2 of those.
After his 1994 season with the New York Mets in which he received just 49 plate apperances, he toiled in the minors for 3 seasons before working his way back to the big leagues with the Astros for a 15 plate appearance cup of coffee in 1997. He finished his Major League career in 1998 with the Royals, the place where short stops go to die.

There's not a whole lot else to say about Rivera's playing career. Sorta inexplicable how he received so much playing time and was able to hang around until he was 34, but I guess the times were different. Depressing career for a depressing day in my sports world.

Still have no camera phone to show my own Mo Progress, but it is definitely coming together finally. You can even see it from relatively far away! I have shifted my goal from Tom Selleck to Ron Swanson after seeing last week's Parks and Recreation where Ron looks into the camera and says, "I have to file my toe nails every three weeks because they are too strong for clippers," and then gives a proud smirk. My hero.

Why the Patriots will win the Super Bowl, Game 9 vs. the Jets and some other ramblings

2011-11-13T08:58:00.000-08:00

A few weeks back I wrote that the upcoming stretch of games (Pitt through Philly) would be the stretch that tells us what we have for a Patriots team and what we can expect the rest of the season. Well so far they have failed that test pretty handily. After one of the worst performances in recent Patriots memory against the Steelers; the Patriots followed up by ending their 20 game home winning streak against the hated New York football Giants. While many Pats fans are all gloom & doom, doubting if the team will make the playoffs and even questioning if Belichick has “lost his touch” (blasphemy) – I see things a bit differently. While the Pats may have last the past two games, I saw some promising signs.

In the Pittsburgh game – the Pats came out and let the Steelers march down the field on the opening drive as if they wanted them to score and never recovered. Regardless – as poorly as they played, on the road against one of the best teams in the AFC – they still had a chance to win the game on the last possession of the fourth quarter even after the worlds’ worst attempt at an onside kick. Continue on to last week’s frustrating loss against NYG – New England had four turnovers, didn’t look good in general and still managed to be one defensive stop away from pulling off a win against another top tier NFL team. It’s not often that a team can turn the ball over four times in a game and still be within 90 seconds of getting a W. The last drive by the Giants, as depressing as it was, was more of a function of too many simultaneous injuries at key positions to get that do-or-die stop. Chung went out with an ankle injury only to be replaced by Sergio Brown who picked up that atrocious pass interference penalty on the goalline to set up the Giants winning score. Couple that with the loss of both Brandon Spikes and Gary Guyton leading to career special teams ace Tracy White being thrust into action at LB on the most pivotal drive of the game. While White may be an excellent special teams player, a good Linebacker he is not. White was in coverage on both catches by Giants TE Jake Ballard (the long catch down the seam on the crucial 3^rd down, and the TD pass to end the game).

As frustrating to watch as the two losses may have been here is what I saw: I saw a team that can play far below their ability level against two of the better teams in the NFL, stand little to no chance of winning, but yet had the mental toughness to battle through their mistakes and stay competitive for all 60 minutes and still manage to give themselves a chance to win games that they didn’t deserve to. And while it’s easy to be discouraged at the recent results, the mental toughness and competitiveness of the team has me very optimistic for the Patriots in the 2^nd half of the 2011 season.

Many of the complaints you hear about this team is how bad their defense is, and critics are quick to point to New England’s last ranked Pass Defense as the main reason they can’t win the Super Bowl. If you were to ask anyone that follows football closely who they think the current Super Bowl favorites are; the majority of responses would be the Green Bay Packers – and justifiably so. However, if you were to ask these same fans what team ranks 31^st in pass defense; I doubt very few would correctly guess the same Green Bay Packers. New England gives up just over 17 yards passing per game more than the undisputed Super Bowl favorite Packers.

If you were to ask Bill Belichick what the most important stat in football is, he has frequently been quoted saying “Points”. In that regard, Green Bay and New England rank 15^th & 16^th respectively in opponents Red Zone scoring percentage, the most telling stat for Belichick’s ever important “Points”. So I ask you, why are the Packers viewed as such stronger Super Bowl contenders than New England? Obviously Green Bay’s undefeated record goes a long way to explaining this, and enforces the old adage “Winning is the best Band-Aid”; but it also will hopefully help some of you Pats fans ready to jump off the ledge take a step back and realize things aren’t quite as bad as they seem.

After the next 3 weeks (at NYJ, vs. KC & at Phil), the Patriots have one of the easiest schedules for the remainder of the season. As it stands, NE, NYJ and Buffalo stand tied atop the AFC East at the halfway mark of the season – essentially meaning these next 8 games are a new season in themselves.

Now in terms of today’s ever important game against the New York Foot-fetish Jets; I don’t know where to begin. After getting dominated in Foxboro just over a month ago, the Jets have turned their season around- reeling off three straight wins and fighting back to the top of the AFC East. Of course these 3 wins have come against the hapless Dolphins, San Diego (the game where Phillip Rivers decided to throw the ball away on 4^th down with no time left), and the rapidly fading Buffalo Bills. The Jets have gotten back to re-establishing their trademark running game; against teams that rank 14^th. 25^th and 19^th respectively in run Defense. The Patriots on the other hand rank 9^th on run D and while I would normally feel good about this match-up, the absence of Brandon Spikes tonight has me very worried. Spikes’ top replacement at ILB is Gary Guyton; and if you’ve read anything on SBS in the past you know just have little faith I have in Guyton’s run stopping abilities. Also, not to be lost in the shuffle is this weeks (somewhat ) surprising release of Fat Albert Haynesworth, who clearly is an asset in the run stopping department. After reading comments from Haynesworth over the past week, it seems to be that he was getting frustrated at lack of playing time and the differences in the Patriots version of the 4-3 defense as opposed to the 4-3 he thrived in his time in Tennessee. While Fat Albert didn’t produce the large sack numbers that some expected of him when he was acquired by the Patriots, he had some strong contributions (when not limited by injuries) and opened up many opportunities for his fellow d-linemen.

Along with the concerns with the Pats usually stout run D, there is obviously plenty to worry about with the often ridiculed pass D. Safety Josh Barrett was placed on IR this past week, leaving an already thin group even further decimated. If Chung is at all limited or can’t go due to his ankle injury, this is an area of major concern, and should provide plenty of opportunity for the talented but underutilized Dustin Keller. The Patriots D made some significant progress last week against the Giants (save for that last TD drive), limiting the Giants on 3^rd down conversions and fixing many of the errors that plagued them in Pittsburgh. The injuries have me plenty worried about our ability to stop the Jets and JV Sanchez, but hopefully they can put up enough resistance to give Brady and Co. a chance.

I'll need to write a dissertation on the offense later this week, but I think they'll utilize the running game that helped them thrive in the first match up between the rivals. Of course the Welker/Revis match up is on of the more entertaining ones you can watch as it is a top notch battle of of two of the best at their positions playing at the highest level in a pivotal game. If the Pat's D can fend off the Jets running game, the Patriots should be able to pull of a W in a hostile environment in the slums of North Jersey; but don't get me wrong - the injuries have me very concerned. Win or lose, I'll still remain in high hopes for the rest of the Patriots 2011 season and think they have all the pieces to win the Super Bowl and will do just that.

As for tonight - Patriots 24 - Jets 20

Mo' Star of the Day: Mike Greenwell

2011-11-09T12:56:00.000-08:00

Ol' Greenie has sort of a Steve-Martin-as-Jacques-Clouseau-in-the-horrible-Pink-Panther-remake-look here. In other words, French. Still, despite the Parisian lip coiffe, he is worthy of being recognized as our second Boston Mo' Star. Some fun facts:

Was the heir apparent of the Red Sox left field mantle; below are the career WAR of Red Sox left fielders in chronological order (according to Baseball-Reference):

Ted Williams: 125.3
Carl Yastrzemski: 88.7
Jim Rice: 41.5
Mike Greenwell: 23.5
Troy O'Leary: 5.5

The only offensive category he ever led the league in was Intentional Walks, with 18 in 1988, for which he tied for the AL lead with teammate Wade Boggs. The players Greenwell most frequently batted in front of that year were Dwight Evans, Ellis Burks, and Mr. Most Feared Hitter himself, Jim Rice.
Went to High School in Ft. Myers where the Red Sox have Spring Training. I bet he saved some serious dough not having to find a rental for February and March every year.
Received 2 votes in his only year on the Hall of Fame ballot. Probably from a couple of moustache aficionados.
Was famous (infamous) for a penchant for sliding into first base on close plays. Anybody who understands basic physics understands that this act actually slows down a runner, making it less likely he would be safe on a close play. Of course, the extra speed generated by his 'stache probably made it a moot point anyway.
In 1988, Greenie finished second to Jose Canseco for MVP. At the time there was no dispute. Canseco led the way for the mighty Oakland A's, led the league in HR, RBI and SLG and had a little extra swagger with the Bash Bros routine. However, when Canseco admitted (bragged) to using steroids, Greenie became very vocal that the title should be stripped from Canseco and rewarded to him. Of course this ignores the fact that Boggs was probably the better choice all along, posting an OBP 60 points higher than Greenwell at .476, the 7th highest rate in the expansion era by anyone not named Barry Bonds.

So now you know a little bit more about Mike Greenwell and his French 'stache.

Please don't forget that these little moustache posts aren't for my health, but are to help improve the health of those suffering or at risk of prostate cancer. Please go to my Mo Page to donate anything you can: http://mobro.co/sexybostonsports

Updates of my Mo progress are coming once I find a working camera phone. Sadly, it has come in a lot slower than I thought. The goal is Tom Selleck, but right now I look more like Harris Trinsky from Freaks and Geeks:

Movember

2011-11-07T13:43:00.000-08:00

At the request of Sexy Boston Sports’ facial hairologistRobert Boucini, I am participating in “Movember” this year. For those who don’tknow what “Movember” is, here is the explanation directly from the source:

During November each year, Movember is responsible for the sprouting of moustaches on thousands of men’s faces, in the US and around the world. With their Mo’s, these men raise vital funds and awareness for men’s health, specifically prostate cancer and other cancers that affect men. Once registered at www.movember.com, men start Movember 1st clean shaven. For the rest of the month, these selfless and generous men, known as Mo Bros, groom, trim and wax their way into the annals of fine moustachery. Supported by the women in their lives, Mo Sistas, Movember Mo Bros raise funds by seeking out sponsorship for their Mo-growing efforts.

I have registered for Movember and anyone who wants to makea donation to prostate cancer research can do so at this link: http://mobro.co/sexybostonsports.Over the course of the month I will be giving updates on my ‘stache and moneyraised and find some awesome Boston sports moustaches to share. Today's 'stache belongs to feather haired fireballer, Dennis Eckersley.

Some fun facts about Eck:

Eck did 2 tours of duty with the Red Sox. Eck's first run with the Sox came when he was 23 and his second when he was 43 (in 20 years between debuts he appeared to age no more than a couple years because, as they say, Eck don't crack)
Along with John Smoltz, is the only pitcher in MLB history to have a season of 20 or more wins AND a season of 50 or more saves
Considered the first 1 Inning closer
A recovering alcoholic (not exactly a "fun" fact)
Was traded for Bill Buckner in 1984 (again, not a "fun" fact)
In 1992, won the Cy Young AND MVP Award as a reliever. As rare as this sounds, he was actually the third AL reliever to pull off the feat, all between 1981 and 1992. The voters must have been borrowing some of that sweet sweet crack from Paul Molitor.
Of pitchers with at least 50 games pitched in a season, he has the 1st and 2nd best strike out to walk ratio, 18.33 in 1989 and 18.25 in 1990
From 1989 to 1991 he struck out 215 batters and only walked 16, for a strike out to walk ratio of 13.44; if this were the rate for one season, it would still rank 4th best all time; for pitchers who have qualified for the ERA title (162 innings pitched; Eck threw 207 over these 3 years) it would rank first by 2.44
In 1990 he faced 262 batters and walked 4 of them
Still rocking the 'stache

So for me, Eck and the betterment of male health, please visit my donation page and give a little bit: http://mobro.co/sexybostonsports.

Game 8 vs. The stupid Giants

2011-11-06T12:00:00.000-08:00

Midterm week for school and close week at work means I had no time to put together anything worthy of a SBS post. Instead I'll leave a few thoughts for today's game:

1.) I am in no way prepared to see all of the obligatory flashback clips that FOX will show today from "the game that shall not be mentioned". I may have to start drinking now to deal with it.

2.) The Giants will be without Ahmad Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks and center David Baas. While Bradshaw and Nicks are much bigger names, Baas' absence may be most important. We've covered the importance of the center position in this space before, but the center is essentially the QB of the offensive line. Will Baas' absence lead to the Pats finally filling up the stat sheet with some sacks? No just QB pressures but some good old fashioned sacks? I think so.

Don't underrate the absence of Bradshaw either. Brandon Jacobs may be a well known name amongst fans, but the difference in skill between he and Bradshaw is about the same as downgrading from Leigh Bodden to Antwaun Molden. Oh wait; we saw how well that worked last week. Bradshaw is a far superior football player.

3.) Speaking of Molden, today will be a good day to judge the progress of both he and Phillip Adams - the two players battling for the role of 5th DB to replace the departed Bodden. Both had their struggles last week, and both will need to make giant steps forward if the Pats want to have any long term success.

4.) As much heat as the DB's took after last weeks game, a good portion of the blame needs to go to the LB's and their feeble efforts in pass coverage. The majority of Pittsburgh's yardage came on completions across the middle of the field, and both Brandon Spikes and Gary Guyton struggled mightily (save for Guyton's gift of an INT) in pass coverage. Mayo's full return this week should go a long way to benefit that this week, but still unacceptable. Spikes at least is a monster at stopping the run; but Guyton is making a strong case to replace Johnathan Wilhite in the position for the annual Duane Starks Award for Pat's least favorite Pat and scapegoat for all.

5.) Too lazy to find a link for the article, but I'm sure some of you remember Eli Manning saying he was on the same level as Brady earlier this year. Today is the day he will be smite'd by the football God's for speaking such blasphemy.

6.) The key to this game will of course be protecting Brady against the Giants 4 man pass rush. The Giants boast one of the best Defensive Lines in the NFL in terms of rushing the passer; and if they can generate a rush with just 4 while dropping 7 into coverage, that poses a major problem for New England. Here's hoping Matt Light and Sea-bass play better than those garbage performances they brought last weekend.

As much as I hate the Jets, the Giants have always been my least favorite team. I think it stems from when I was a little kid; long before such wonderful inventions as the RedZone channel, or even the internet; and was forced to watch the New York football Giants whenever the Patriots weren't on TV and has steadily grown since then. I hate their stupid boring uniforms. I hate their putz of a QB. I hate their lack of cheerleaders. Seriously, its football, get some freakin' cheerleaders. Please win today Patriots.

Prediction:
Patriots 27 - Giants 17

Hello New Friend: Right Field

2011-11-04T11:43:00.000-07:00

NOTE: The views expressed in this post are almost entirely my own opinion and are not based on any rumors or reports of the team's actual intent. Enjoy.

2012 marks the sad likely departure of fan favorite J.D. Drew. After 5 magical seasons, the Drewster is probably headed toward the happy hunting grounds (literally). From day one, J Dizzle endeared himself to Red Sox nation with his steely demeanor, keen batting eye, self preservation, and effortless grace in the outfield. Best of all, J to the motha fuckin D put to rest the horrible memory of his predecessor Trot "I am a crook" Nixon. The next player to man Pesky's Pole will have some massive shoes to fill on the field and in the hearts' of Red Sox nation.

Soooo, about the only thing true in that opener is that J.D. is on the way out. I know he was never a fan favorite, but I have shown before that he was actually pretty valuable to this team until 2011 both on offense and defense. His personality may never have been a fit for this town, but the J.D. Drew of 2007-10 will be hard to replace. Today, I'll look at these potential replacements compared to Right Fielders of Red Sox past. This is actually a fairly strong field of players in this year's weak market.

The Dewey Evans Group (Superstars)

Carlos Beltran, Free Agent; Matt Kemp, Dodgers

Beltran is not a "superstar" any more, but he is far and away the best free agent outfielder this year. He had a resurgence this year after an injury ravaged 2010. He's no longer the Gold Glove center fielder or all-time great base runner he used to be due to his injured knees. But he is a switch hitter with some decent power and a good eye and I have to think he can handle playing right field, if not for a full season, then for 130 games or so. If he would accept a 2 year deal with a third year option this could be a good fit. My guess is he wouldn't, though.

Kemp may win the MVP in the NL this year. If you believe in Wins Above Replacement, he was the best in baseball this year by 1.5 wins according to Baseball-Reference. He played center for the Dodgers this year, but his defense there isn't great (despite his Gold Glove win) and would be better suited for a corner. Unfortunately, to get him to the Sox would take a lot of traded talent and the line would form behind Jacoby Ellsbury or Clay Buchholz, or both. If the team gives up Ellsbury for Kemp, Kemp slides in at center. If the team gives up Buchholz for Kemp, it won't really matter who plays right field because 3 of the 5 starting pitchers will be putting balls into places where no fielder could get to them. I only include Kemp here because I've heard him suggested as an option, but I want to assure you that it is more likely that I spontaneously grow a third nipple than Matt Kemp coming to Boston in a trade.

The Tom Brunansky Group (All Star level players acquired around their prime)

Corey Hart, Brewers; Carlos Quentin, White Sox; Andre Ethier, Dodgers

Each player has made 2 All Star teams (Bruno made 1) and each player is pushing 30 (like Bruno). Each also has flaws, but that could make each available. Hart is the best fielder of the group, and really the only one who should play right (again, Ethier won a Gold Glove this year, but it was very much undeserved). Quentin has the best power stroke, though Etheir and Hart have both hit 30+ homers within the last 3 seasons. Ethier has the best batting eye and is friends with Dustin Pedroia, so, uh, good chemistry?

Personally, I would choose Hart from this group (solid defense, right handed bat, improving batting eye, good pop, uncanny resemblance to one of my favorite wrestlers Edge, and think of the jokes the first time he loses a ball in the right field sun). My guess is if the Sox get any of these guys, which they might, it would be Ethier because of his batting eye and because it seems like he wants to be here, which would be a change from some recent acquisitions (Crawford), although they may be reluctant to acquire another left handed bat.

The Trot Nixon Group (the fan favorites)

Coco Crisp, Free Agent; Michael Cuddyer, Free Agent; Grady Sizemore, Free Agent; Jeff Francouer, Royals (Mutual Option)

All of these players make the fans swoon (I am a former Grady's Lady myself). Coco and his afro. Cuddyer and his versatility. Grady and his unabashed sex appeal. Francouer and his rocket arm and affability.

Besides their marketability, they do have some playing ability as well. Crisp is still a very good defender and would give the Red Sox a shut down outfield (though his weak arm would definitely not work in right field). Unfortunately, Crisp can't really hit anymore and I don't think he'd want to come back to the place he was cast out of a number of years ago.

Cuddyer is a solid hitter and does have the aforementioned versatility and his right handed bat would be a good fit. However, even though he is a "solid" hitter, I don't think he quite hits enough to man a corner position for the Red Sox and even though he is "versatile," that means he can handle a few positions, but not necessarily play them well.

Sizemore was one of the best young players in baseball for a handful of years until the injuries started piling up in 2009. The last two years, his on base percentage has topped out at .285 (really bad) and he is losing his speed and range. Still, this is the type of lottery ticket player that can put a team over the top on an incentive-heavy contract.

Francouer is one of the stat community's favorite whipping boys. He would rather take an enema filled with moonshine than take a walk. He always talks about changing his approach but never does. He is a favorite of old scout types. I would never want this guy to face a right handed, but he does hit lefties really well and he does have that cannon for an arm.

I wouldn't want any of these guys as the full time right fielder, but I could see some of them working out in a platoon situation. Unfortunately, I don't know if the Sox will go after any of them. Crisp probably does not want to come back. Cuddyer will probably be overvalued and too expensive and not looking for a time share. Francouer seems to want to stay in Kansas City, probably because he knows there is playing time available. And I have no idea what Sizemore will choose to do, but my guess is the Sox probably want to avoid injury plagued players for at least a year.

The J.D. Drew Group (The platoon options)

Andruw Jones, Free Agent; Matt Murton, Free Agent; Cody Ross, Free Agent; Ryan Doumit, Free Agent; Chris Heisey, Reds; and yes, J.D. Drew, Free Agent

This is a group that would warm the cockles of Earl Weaver's heart. Weaver frequently employed platoons back in the 70s with the Orioles when teams still had 10 man pitching staffs and could afford some extra bench players. They weren't just right/left either as he would have offense/defense platoons as well. Even with a likely 12 man pitching staff, I think the versatility of the likely Red Sox infield could allow the team to carry 5 outfielders.

Jones, Murton, Ross and Heisey could all be the right handed bats in a platoon we will get to later. Jones would be my choice out of this group because he posted a .923 OPS against lefties last year, could handle the position defensively, the Sox would be stealing him from the Yankees, and it's fun to watch fatter versions of your once favorite players. It would be cool to see Chris Heisey too because **NAME DROP ALERT** I know him (although since probably none of you have ever heard of him, I don't know how good a name drop that was).

Ryan Doumit is a switch hitter who can handle lefties and righties fairly equally. He plays catcher mostly, but has played outfield and first base as well. He has injury issues and isn't especially great defensively, but I envision him as part of an offense/defense platoon. He could start on days when the Red Sox have ground ball or strike out pitchers on the mound, and sit for the fly ball pitchers. On the days he starts, he could be removed in the late innings for defense and on the days he sits he could be used as a pinch hitter. Plus, in the event they let Varitek leave, he could always switch to back up catcher if Ryan Lavarnway doesn't work out.

Finally, we get to Mr. Wonderful (Drew). I think there is about 0.1 % chance he comes back to Boston, but as the left handed half of a strict platoon it would be a smart move. This would keep him healthier, keep him more effective, and keep around a player who does actually have useful skills.

The Phil Plantier Group (Homegrown youngsters)

Josh Reddick, Red Sox; Ryan Kalish, Red Sox

Finally, the in house options. Reddick is older by a year and has about 300 more plate appearances in the Majors than Kalish. Reddick is the bigger power threat of the two and has the strong arm typical of right fielders. He was pretty solid in a half season with Boston (buoyed by a bananas first 2 months) so I would guess he has the jump on Kalish. He does have some serious flaws that will probably always hold him back from being a full time major league outfielder. He has a terrible batting eye and strikes out too much so he isn't the typical Boston player. He also seems to not have the best baseball sense, reflected in his poor base stealing and occasional misadventures in the field. But he is super talented so he deserves another look.

Kalish is younger and has a better pedigree than Reddick. He was drafted higher (9th round vs 17th round) and was always more highly regarded on prospect lists. He played in 53 games in 2010 in Boston and was a bit of a mixed bag. His success at the plate was below average, but he showed strong defense at every outfield position and good base running (10 for 11 in steals). He is a far more disciplined hitter than Reddick, but his power is probably similar to Ellsbury's pre-2011. Unfortunately, he was injured for most of last season so he didn't get a chance to improve upon his 2010. My guess is he starts the year at Pawtuckett to get some more seasoning and prove he can bounce back from his injury. He is also a potential replacement for Ellsbury if he is traded or leaves as a free agent in a couple years. He can handle center much better than Reddick from what I have heard.

What to do, what to do?

If I were running this team, I would go Tom Beringer on this position (Platoon). I would give Reddick the first crack at the left handed piece of the puzzle with Kalish at the ready. If Reddick establishes himself (or Kalish tears it up in AAA and vaults past Reddick), I would trade Kalish at the deadline if possible. For the right handed piece, I would try to bring in Andruw Jones on a one year deal for about $4 or $5 million, maybe with a team option. I think his right handed power would be great for the monster and despite his heft, I think he can still handle right, especially with speedsters in center and left. Reddick posted a .787 OPS against righties last year and Jones a .923 OPS against lefties. I expect Reddick's to go up some and Jones's to go down some, but that gives you a right fielder with an OPS in the low .800s. That's a top 10 right fielder last year, right about the level of performance of Hart, Quentin and Ethier. A little creativity at this position will save the team from trading more top prospects for a position that is not a top need.

Hello New Friend: The Red Sox Offseason Preview

2011-11-03T08:03:00.000-07:00

Real quick post. I am going to write about the Red Sox’sbiggest needs this offseason over the next week or so (hopefully they don’tsign anybody before my lazy ass gets these posts out). I am not writing thesein order of biggest needs; I think it is clear that pitching is number 1 andthen everything else is more of a want than a big need. I will do a positionper post and in it I will talk about the options on the free agent market,trade market, and internal options. As a quick preview, here are the positionsof need as I see them (nothing ground breaking, just giving you a heads up):

Starting pitching

Closer

Right Field

Third Base

Bench/Bullpen

You’ll notice short stop and manager are missing. I thinkshort stop will be perfectly average this year with Marco Scutaro, Jed Lowrie,Mike Aviles, and (later) Jose Iglesias (does anybody else keep wanting to callhim Julio?) around so this is not a need. For the manager, there are just toomany candidates and we don’t know what the team is looking for or, really, whateven makes a good manager so this would just lead to baseless speculation. Ithink a manager has limited effect over a team’s success anyway (unless they tinkertoo much cough Ron Washington cough) so I’m not going to waste your time ormine.

Since I’m still depressed about the September pitching, I’llsave the starters for last. Just know that you will not read the words "chicken" or "beer" in a post about pitching unless I am comparing the staff to my favorite Budweiser products or Chick Fil A menu items. Time to get over that ridiculousness.

Up first I’ll look at right field. Stay tuned…

Happy Halloween: Game 7 vs. Pittsburgh

2011-10-27T19:45:00.000-07:00

Every off-season, when the schedule is released, there is a stretch of games that stands out and you know after those games is when you will learn the true identity of the team. Last year it was the Pittsburgh through Jets Act 2 when the Patriots proved they were the class of the AFC (lets choose to ignore the playoffs for this exercise). For 2011, these next three - five games are that stretch. We should have a pretty clear picture after the following: at Pittsburgh, home for the Giants at the Jets; followed by a home game against the resurgent Chiefs and then on the road in Philadelphia. If the Patriots can go 4-1 over this stretch, they should be well positioned for the top seed in the AFC. It starts this weekend against a familiar foe, the one organization in the NFL that can come close to comparing to New England's resume over the past decade (although not really that close). Fresh off a bye week and with the return to health of a number of injured players, the Pats are in prime position to face a recently hot Steelers team coming back from a tough start to the 2011 season. Of course the Steelers are 0-2 when facing teams with winning records; their 5 wins coming against opponents that are a stellar 7-24 combined. The last time the Pats played in Pittsburgh on Halloween (in 2004) was also their last loss to the Steelers. Lets hope this time around goes a bit better.

New England Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense

Running Game:
The Steelers have always fit the blue collar persona of their city; a team that thrives on running the ball and stopping the run as well as any team in the league. Their run D has certainly earned that reputation over the past few seasons; giving up an average of 3.4 yards per carry from 2008-2010. Not so in 2011. In their losses to Baltimore and Houston, Pittsburgh gave up a combined 350 yards on the ground (170 & 180 yards respectively). The Steelers are giving up 4.5 ypc to date this season, over a full yard more per carry than their dominant past 3 years. Don't get me wrong, it's not like they're terrible (they come in at 11th with 107 ypg), but it's not the Steelers D we're used to seeing. Unheralded DE Aaron Smith was placed on IR, ending his season. Smith is often overlooked amongst all of the big names on this defense, but he is (well, was) a vital part of their defense and one of the better run stoppers in the league. Pittsburgh will look to fill his role with Ziggy Hood (2nd year) and Cameron Heyward (Rookie, and a player I was hoping New England would draft and am interested in watching), two developing young players with positive early reviews from their coaching staff.

The Patriots have also proven they are quite adept at running the ball so far this season. After dominating the Jets on the ground, New England followed up with 101 yards on 25 carries (4.0 ypc) against Dallas - who happened to be leading the league by giving up barely over 60 ypg at the time. Balance has been the theme for the Pats over the past few weeks, and I look for that trend to continue on Sunday in Pittsburgh. Well at least enough to set up their play action passing (more on that to come in a second).
Update: James Farrior - the Steelers leading tackler - is out for today's game, a huge plus for the Pats running game.

P.S. - S.B.S. would like to give a warm welcome back to an all time favorite, Kevin Faulk.
Advantage - Patriots

Passing Game:
We all know the Patriots potent passing attack leads the NFL in yards per game and has looked virtually unstoppable for most of 2011. It's usually pretty easy to just chalk this match-up up as advantage Patriots and move on; but not-so-fast this week. The Steelers just so happen to be the Patriots counterpart, leading the league in Passing Defense; so we get to see the best vs. the best (ok, I lied - Cleveland overtook them for the #1 spot by 0.4 yards/game last weekend, so their 2nd, but it sounded better that way). Brady has thrived passing the ball throughout his career against the Steelers, putting up a cool 350 yards in their last meeting.

The strength of the Pittsburgh D is their Linebackers. Lamaar Woodley, James Farrior, Lawrence Timmons and James Harrison compose what could easily be argued as the best LB corps in the league. Fortunately Harrison is out with a fractured orbital bone (ouch); but Woodley remains a major concern. He is currently 5th in the NFL with 7 sacks (5.5 over the past 3 games) and is one of the best all-around OLB's in the league. And of course there is Troy Polamalu, one of the best safeties in all of football. While I love the way Polamalu plays and respect his ability, I think he is overrated as a pass defender and can be exploited in coverage. The Steelers are at their best when they can play in small spaces and Polamalu can play up to support the run, which is why most of Brady's success against Pittsburgh has come by spreading the field with 4 or 5 WR's or off of play action. Given Pittsburgh's relative struggles with stopping the run this season look for the Pats to establish BJGE and Co. to keep Polamalu and the LB's honest and open up the play action game.
Games like this are where Gronk and Hernandez's versatility really come into play. The Pats can stay in a 1 RB/2 WR/2 TE set and force Pittsburgh to choose between staying in their base 3-4 defense to be stronger against the run or shift to a Nickle to better support pass coverage. If they chose to stay in their base D, that leaves either a LB or Polamalu to match up with the TE's, a very favorable match-up for New England. If they go with an extra defensive back, that weakens an already susceptible run defense.Advantage - Patriots

Pittsburgh Offense vs. New England Defense
Running Game:
Typically the strength of the Steelers, their run game has struggled so far this season. Much to the chagrin of fantasy owners, Rashard Mendenhall has only one game of over 100 rushing yards this season, and four of under 50. He's averaging just 3.7 ypc and a dismal 2.9 ypc if you take out his 146 yard performance against Jacksonville. One large contributing factor is that the Steelers have had seven different combinations for their first string offensive line. Fat Albert has been practicing all week and Brandon Deaderick was actived off the PUP, and brings some added depth to a strong Pats D-line. Mayo is most likely to be on the field, another huge boost to the run D alongside the rapidly improving Brandon Spikes. Mendenhall is a threat to break off a long run every time he touches the ball, so limiting big plays will be the main concern in this aspect of the game today.Advantage - Patriots

Passing Game:
While the Steelers may rank 1st in the NFL in Pass Defense; as for they Patriots; well they rank dead last. They've been improving over the past couple weeks, but some surprise moves this week have brought more doubt to the already struggling unit. On Wednesday, the team released veteran cornerback Leigh Bodden. Bodden had played on over 60% of the teams defensive snaps, and was the go to nickleback when opposing teams would have 3 or more WR's on the field. After that story was released, news shortly came out that rookie CB Ras-I Dowling was being moved to the IR, ending his season. This leaves the Patriots with only four CB's on their roster - McCourty, Arrington and unproven veterans Antwaun Molden and Philip Adams. All of this shouldn't help much against a talented Steelers passing attack.
First on the list of concerns today is Mike Wallace. Wallace is one of the most explosive players in the NFL, a threat to score every time he touches the ball. Wallace has had a play of 40 or more yards in every single game this year aside from week 1 vs. Baltimore; highlighted by a 95 yard TD catch last week in Arizona. The Pats have a penchant for taking away the opposing teams best player, and Wallace will certainly be priority number one. Look for him to get "Randy Moss Treatment" - man to man coverage, with safety help over the top (20+ yards off the ball) on all plays.

Hines Ward will be missing the game, but the Steelers boast plenty of depth at the WR position with Emannuel Sanders, Antonio Brown and Pats killer Jerricho Cotchery. Brown has shown some big play ability, and will be a capable replacement for Ward. Another player that can't be overlooked is Heath Miller. Miller is an underrated player, a solid all around TE and can pose a problem in the passing game. Today will be a good test to see how the secondary comes together after the bye week. I'm especially interested in seeing if McCourty can make any improvement and get back to last seasons form. The Steelers offensive line has struggled in pass protection, so the pass rush should be able to get to Roethelisberger - of course getting to him with pressure and bringing the big boy down are two different stories. All that said, there are too many changes in the secondary and Pittsburgh's passing game is formidable, so lets hope New England can minimize the damage.
Advantage - Steelers
Special Teams:Heinz field is always a tough place for specialists, as it often brings rough weather and strong winds. Advantage - Patriots

Prediction:
The Pats are something like 865-2 when coming off of a bye and Brady clearly gets fired up when traveling to the Steel City. The team was able to get an extra day of practice in this week and prepare for an important long run AFC match up which bodes well for New England. If they can limit Mike Wallace and get to Ben a few times I think the Pats with relative ease.Patriots 30 - Steelers 21

Riding the RomoCoaster: Game 6 vs. Dallas

2011-10-14T10:57:00.000-07:00

Ahhhhh; there is not much better than beating up on the Jets. After a weeks worth of blather from Rex about how the Jets would get back to their "ground-and-pound" approach, the Pats took that script and shoved it right down Rex's fat throat - out-rushing the Jets 152 to 97. Now the question becomes: how will the Pats respond coming off an emotional win (with their bye week on the horizon); facing a more formidable than you think Cowboys team coming off their bye week.

The two faced 'Boys stand at 2-2, but could very easily be 4-0. Or 0-4 (their game against Washington was one of the ugliest games I've ever watched). As the Romocoaster goes, so go the Cowboys (I've seen this clip probably 10 times now on SpotsCenter and have literally no idea what they say - it's too much fun to watch Marcellus Wallace's face). As much fun as it was beating up on Rex last week, the Pats face his equally talented, less obnoxious brother Rob this week. The last time the Pats didn't score 30+ points in a game was in their miserable performance against Cleveland last year. Cleveland's Defensive Coordinator last season? Rob Ryan. The Browns were also coming off a bye last year when they beat the Patriots, and I think it's safe to say that the Ryan brothers shared some ideas of how to stop the unstoppable Patriots offense.

New England Offense vs. Dallas Defense

Running Game:
The Pats have spent the past two weeks focusing on a balanced offensive attack (65 rushing attempts to 63 passing over the past two games) and the results have paid dividends. The effectiveness of the rushing game took some pressure of the passing offense and opened up play action passes. This strategy was all well and good for the past two weeks, but is likely to be less of the focus this week. Dallas leads the league in run defense, giving up a mere 61.8 ypg, thanks to the strong play of NT Jay Ratliff and ILB's Sean Lee and Brady James. Lee, the 2nd year player has had a solid start to the year and drew rave reviews from Tedy Bruschi for his play making ability. I look for the Pats to focus on screens (to both RB's and WR's) and draws rather than traditional runs to balance the offense against a blitz heavy Cowboys team.
Advantage - Cowboys

Passing Game:
The success of the Patriots passing game today depends on one man - DeMarcus Ware. Talk all you want about Revis, Clay Matthews or Julius Peppers, but DeMarcus Ware is the best defensive player in the NFL (aside from a healthy Ed Reed). With 5 sacks already this year (through 4 games), Ware is an elite pass rusher, and a player the Pats will have to account for on every single play. Neither Matt Light or Solder (or Vollmer if he plays) is good enough to handle Ware one on one, so look for lots of chips on him from RB's, TE's and even WR's to try and slow him down. The Pats gave up a season high 4 sacks against the Jets last week and had quite a few miscues in protection - so, as always, keeping Tom clean will be essential. But once again, we have Tom.
Advantage - Patriots

Dallas Offense vs. New England Defense
Running Game:
Cutting Leonard Davis and Andre Gurode may have helped the Cowboys stay under the salary cap; but it sure as shit hasn't helped their running game. The Pats D has been sound in stopping the run (Brandon Spikes is becoming a beast in the middle), so the only thing to worry about in my opinion is the big play threat of Felix Jones. Jones has the same ability of his former teammate Darren McFadden to take any play and break it for a TD. As was the case when the Pats traveled to Oakland two weeks ago, tackling Jones will be key to limiting his big plays and making Dallas one dimensional.Advantage - Patriots

Passing Game:
Here's where things get interesting. The Pats passing D has been the subject of enough discussion this year that we don't need to get into it here. After showing signs of progress against JV Sanchez, maybe their turning a corner and will rise to mediocrity. But a closer look at the stats from last week make things seem not quite as promising as they initially looked. First and foremost, it was against Sanchez. Sanchez is making a strong case for the Worst QB in the NFL (much to my delight). But the real area in which the Pats pass D has struggled this year is against 3+ WR sets. When the Jets used 3 or more WR's last week, Sanchez complete 73.3% of his passes, with 7.7 YPA, for 2 TD's and a 134.7 QB rating. Notsogood.

Say what you want about Tony Romo; he make his fair share of gawdawful mistakes and is easy to hate; but he can throw the ball. With the return to health of Miles Austin and Dez Bryant, the Cowboys could put Nate Newton on the field and have a respectable 3 receiver set. And that's doesn't even mention their best offensive threat - Jason Witten. Witten is Romo's safety net, and go to receiver. He is the player the Patriots will look to take out first with their game play, similar to Antonio Gates when they played the Chargers in Week 2. Add in the receiving ability of Felix Jones, and the Cowboys have too many weapons and make for a very tough match up for the Pats D, especially sans Mayo.Advantage - Cowboys
Special Teams:I didn't do much research in this department (I haven't had a computer all week) so I'll just say Dallas has a rookie kicker and use that as my reasoning.
Advantage - Patriots

Prediction:
This game has me scared. Rob Ryan coming off a bye week. DeMarcus Ware doing DeMarcus Ware things. Witten, Miles and Dez. The emotional victory over the Jets last week and a bye week around the corner. Lots of injuries on the D-Line and in the defensive backfield. There is only one thing making me hesitate from picking the Cowboys. Romo.

Will he be the Romo who played against SF and led a last minute game winning drive, or will he be the Romo who played Detroit and decided that Halloween came early and it would be fun to start throwing the ball directly to the Lions, giving out Pick-6's like candy? He will be the deciding factor today. Regardless, it should be a good ol' Texas style shootout in Foxboro today, with both defenses struggling to stop the other team. I've gone back and forth on this pick a hundred times, but I think it's time I do something that's never been done before in the history of SBS; pick against the Patriots. This of course comes with the cop-out that if they win I can simply blame it on Romo being terrible. I certainly hope I'm wrong, and if there is any coach that will have his team prepared for a game like this it's Belichick; but I'm going with my gut. Go Pats.Cowboys 31 - Patriots 27

Gordon Edes: Not bad my friend

2011-10-14T08:51:00.000-07:00

I plan to do a full series of posts on what the Red Sox should do this off-season, but today Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com offers his take. And you know what? It is really not bad at all. I usually take shots at mainstream media types like Edes, but there are some relatively level-headed suggestions in here that could help this team. He also makes a prediction that I fully agree with that the Red Sox will make the playoffs next year. Ultimately what I think he shows here is that it will not take much to win those extra couple games they needed this year. The talent is there, it just needs some tweaks. Let's take a look at his suggestions.

1) Red Sox owners buy a full page ad in the Globe and apologize to the fans
This is probably a little over kill (there's a possibility he is doubling as an Ad Sales rep for the Globe; the newspaper industry is going down the toilet after all), but the sentiment rings true. Once the dust settles, I think people will miss Theo and Tito and dislike the way they were treated. The owners don't necessarily owe an apology, but some kind of gesture would help. More importantly, they need to figure out a way to improve their and the team's image to potential managers and free agents.

2) Sign Jacoby Ellsbury to a long-term contract
One school of thought is to shop Ellsbury this year because he will probably never have another year like this one. Edes thinks that he should be a face of the franchise and he has been a leader on teams before, especially in college. I think the best thing to do this off-season is nothing. Do not explore trades. Do not try to sign him long term. If they explore trades they may alienate him, but if they try to lock him up they may have to pay an extremely bloated contract. Wait until next year, when I would guess his value will drop some and maybe the team and Scott Boras can find a more reasonable middle ground. On second thought, if Ellsbury is the face of the franchise, the pink jersey sales alone should pay for his contract. Sign him now!

3) Squash any talk of trading Beckett
Agreed. At worse he is a number 3 starter on this team. There is nobody to replace him. Although I fully disagree with Edes about patrolling Chick-Fil-A during Spring Training. I will never deny my fellow man of such wondrous deliciousness.

4) Stabilize the top of the order, namely Carl Crawford
Edes suggests leaving Crawford second, Pedroia third and Gonzalez fourth and I can't say I totally disagree. I don't like Crawford's low OBP that high in the lineup, but if it helps him focus then I am willing to give it a try. He also reminds how great a season Gonzalez had despite playing through a week shoulder. God or no God, Gonzo was not the problem this year and he should be even better next year. Pedroia too. Scary.

5) Trade Lackey, of course
I want to get rid of Wilbur the Albatross as much as the next guy. I really do. I just don't think it will be possible without straight up releasing him and if that is the last resort I want to give him a month or two to prove he can't pitch here. Edes suggests a trade with the Padres, where his old pitching coach, Bud Black, manages. While he would probably be a good fit for them, the Sox would have to eat almost the entire contract and who knows if they would get anything back.

6) Make Daniel Bard a starter (and other bullpen recommendations)
This is the suggestion I disagree with the most. Bard was drafted as a starter and tried to start in his first year in the minors. He walked one batter per inning. That is miserable. It will never work, I promise. The other suggestions are not great either. He does say maybe re-sign Papelbon (I like) or use the money to sign two closers like Ryan Madson and Heath Bell (I no like). He also says that Aceves will solidify the 7th, but if I had to pick anybody on this team to have a major step back besides Ellsbury it would be Aceves. Francona went the Torre-Proctor route on his arm this season, he could be toast next year. Weak, limp, toast.

7) Sign or trade for a right handed hitting outfielder
Agreed. Not sure about his suggestion of Michael Cuddyer. I think he's a very good player, but I don't know how much long-term value he will have and I think he'll end up overpaid. I'd rather sign a bench guy and let Kalish or Reddick try to win the starting job.

8) Lavarnway and Salty are your two catchers
I think I agree with this more than anything. Salty is probably my favorite player on this team right now and I think Lavarnway and the Green Monster are about to embark on a beautiful relationship. Plus I'm done with Don Juan Varitek and his anemic offense and overrated defense.

9) Decide if Youkilis can handle third full time
Agreed. I think it would be fine to just shift him to DH full time and let Ortiz walk. Edes suggests a play for David Wright. This may make me giggle like a school girl, but I can't see how the team would pull this off. A more realistic move would be playing Lowrie at third, finding a solid backup, and giving Youk a start there every now and then.

10) If they have another $100 million lying a round make a run at Jose Reyes
The only other thing I fully disagree with. Reyes is an extremely exciting and talented player, but he just cannot stay healthy. He is not the type of player you should invest long term dollars in. Bring Scutaro back for another year, hope Iglesias develops and if not then start looking for another short stop like J.J. Hardy.

All in all, a really good list. I think this team will be just fine next year as long as they can stay off the trainer's tables for the first time in 2 years.

Come Back NBA! (Part 2)

2011-10-13T11:36:00.000-07:00

On its own, the NBA is a spectacular league that I love to watch. But it also serves another purpose in my world.

My passion is baseball, but when the season ends I need something else to occupy my time. The NBA gives me exactly that. Until now. Besides the obvious entertainment value I get out of it, the NBA gives me something to talk/read/write about while baseball players slumber.

When the Red Sox season ends, win or lose, people love to talk about feelings, chemistry, leaders, cancers and what ever other post facto argument for success ("Cowboy Up!") or failure ("Chicken and beer :(") they can come up with that have little to no bearing on what actually happened on the field. When the NBA is around, I get to watch Paul Pierce and the boys make beautiful music on the court. Now, I have to deal with this mind numbing shit head on. So here are my quick thoughts on the Bob Hohler piece.

I can't stand anonymous sources. Man up to the shit you smear. Unless it is a political controversy, either put your name on what you say or don't say anything at all.
Poor Terry Francona. None of what was printed in this is any of our business.
Larry Lucchino made some comment about how this was "Hohler's take" on the situation. The radio jockeys are blasting Lucchino for saying this, but I don't get why. Yes the bulk of the column is information he received in interviews, but they are still coordinated in a way to support a specific narrative that Hohler decided on. This is like saying that Michael Moore is only presenting the facts when he makes his "documentaries."
The biggest instance of Hohler imparting his own take is with the infamous chicken, beer and video games revelation. He starts by saying how the signs of the collapse appeared early in the season (of course nobody noticed them when they occurred) when some of the pitchers appeared in the "Hell Yeah, I Like Beer" video. He then says that Lackey, Lester and Beckett were drinking, eating chicken and playing video games in the locker room, though never once says how often and under what circumstances. Then he says that some of the guys cut back on their in-season workouts. Then he closes with the terrible September stats of the 3 starters. I may not be no fancy journalist, but to me that seems like a writer saying "Beer video -> drinking beer -> not working out -> bad September performance." With no concrete evidence that these three things caused the bad performance, this is what we call a "take."
If you want to follow this story line, find out how often this happened. Was it a Sunday only thing? Was it every start that one of the three weren't involved in? Was it once a month? Was it only during blowouts? How long were they in the clubhouse? These are all things we should know if we are to speculate on how disruptive these activities were to the team.
Beyond the basic 4 W's and an H (I took a class in High School), shouldn't we then look to see if there is any evidence that these practices lead to poor performance? There have been tons of out of shape, drunk and loner players that have had tremendous success individually and with their teams. Truthfully, nobody has ever measured the effects of working out or not working out mid-season so it is not fair to make the connection until it happens.
People talk about how chemistry was a reason for the collapse, but who has more chemistry than 3 or 4 dudes sitting around drinking beer, eating chicken and playing video games?

Please come back NBA. I hate writing this stuff.

Come Back NBA! (Part 1)

2011-10-12T06:57:00.000-07:00

So the NBA canceled the first 2 weeks of the season. I know what you are thinking, and the answer is, "Yes", I am on suicide watch 24 hours a day. You can all breath easier now.

My therapist, Dr. J, says I should share my frustrations with the people I care about during these trying times. So any time I hear or see something that makes me long for sneakers squeaking, balls bouncing and KG screaming, I will share it with my loyal readers.

Yesterday while driving home from work, someone called into 98.5 The Sports Hub to discuss Milan Lucic. For those few who haven't jumped on the bandwagon, Lucic is the star left winger for the Boston Bruins. He led the team in goals scored, points and was 4th in plus minus last year.

The caller started by reminiscing the days when "Luc" was young and he would get in fights every game. Fine, I can deal with that, people like fighting. Then he says something like, "but last year we would only talk about him fighting every few games and it seemed like he was more focused on scoring than mixing it up. I mean, when the puck isn't going in, Luc has a great over hand right."

What fucking sport is this?!?!?!?!?! Aaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrgggggggggggghhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!! Please come back NBA. I can't listen to morons complaining that their leading scorer isn't better at a completely different sport. Scoring wins hockey games. Over hand rights win boxing matches. Fuck I hate hockey.

Now Ownership is to blame?

2011-10-10T12:17:00.000-07:00

He's so hilariously Obnoxious!

X Dad forwarded me this article from Boston.com by some guy calling himself "Obnoxious Boston Fan", the latest hack trying to be Bill Simmons (yes, I am one of those too, but at least I research the stuff I say). The article talks a lot about all the mistakes ownership made this year and how they were too focused on their other entities, which caused a top down sense of apathy that ultimately led to the collapse. Since I am getting the sense that this idiot is not the only one who thinks this way, I am going to address what this Einstein has to say. And since he is stealing from Simmons, I am going to steal from the guys at Fire Joe Morgan and go piece by piece through this ridiculous article (OBF's words in Bold Italics).

Happy hour is over at Fenway.

The state of Massachusetts actually banned Happy Hour in 1984, so it's been over for over 27 years now, but very topical OBF.

The Red Sox braintrust probably has the WHIP of every pitcher above Little League somewhere in “Carmine’s” database. They spent half-a-billion on a soccer team, have the winner of the Daytona 500 in their NASCAR racing stable and turned Fenway Park into the world’s 2d–largest ATM.

Detroit Tigers owner Mike Illitch owns the Detroit Red Wings, Little Caesars Pizza and the Fox Theater and submitted a bid to buy the Detroit Pistions last year and yet still somehow found the time and resources to guide the Tigers to the ALCS.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox appeared fat and out of shape heading into the season, imploded from apathy and exhaustion down the stretch and had starting pitchers drinking in the clubhouse during games on their off-days. But none this was evident to anyone on upstairs until Evan Longoria put the pillow over Wally’s face.

Yup, because appearing skinny and in shape is directly related to baseball success. Just ask Prince Fielder; or C.C. Sabathia; or this guy.

John Henry was surprised to learn that every member of his opening day rotation not namedDice-K was in Kevin Fowler’s “Hell Yeah, I Like Beer” video. Understandable? He’s got about $200 million invested in these guys, the video was posted on You Tube in July and included scenes shot at Fenway with players in their Red Sox uniforms. OK, Henry isn’t a country kind of guy. If Josh Beckett,John Lackey, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield andClay Buchholtz appeared in “Hell Yeah, I Like Appletinis” – Henry probably would have it on his iPod. Also likely on Henry’s playlist: “Hell Yeah, I Like Fish and Chips,” “Hell Yeah, I Like Pitchers Who Can’t Throw Six Innings” and “Hell Yeah Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez Were Washed Up.”

I'm not entirely sure it is the job of the principal team owner to know if his players make a cameo in some country music video even if it takes place on company property. And who gives a shit if they starred in this video? It's not like it's called "Hell Yeah, I Like Osama" or "Hell Yeah, I Like Genocide" or even, gasp, "Hell Yeah, I Like the Yankees". And Appletinis have more booze in them than beer so if that is what John Henry is drinking than he is considerably more bad ass than OBF. Also, the Red Sox didn't fail to sign Beltre and Martinez because they are CURRENTLY washed up, they passed for fear that they would be washed up fairly early in their long term deals and were too high a long term risk.

Team president Larry Lucchino, speaking with Henry in that revelation-filled interview with Dennis and Callahan on Friday, also said drinking in the Red Sox clubhouse was breaking news. “It was much after the fact that that point was brought to our attention and we're still trying to dig in to find out how pervasive it was,” he said on WEEI. Nothing brewing here, Larry.

These guys “privately" investigated Carl Crawford, can tell you the OPS of Curtis Granderson on Tuesday afternoons in Cleveland and even blocked yours truly from commenting on their Facebook posts (probably a wise move there) – but they didn’t have a mole in their own clubhouse? Where’s the Pakistani Intelligence Service when you need it? Maybe Bin Laden was hiding in the “Dunkin Dugout” all those years.

Two things: One, I don't like how the drinking in the clubhouse has become a reason for the pitchers sucking in September. We don't know who did it, how much they drank, on what off days they drank, and whether or not this is done throughout baseball, which I suspect it is. Two, nothing drives me crazier than when someone "makes fun" of a "stat-head" by saying something along the lines of "the OPS of Curtis Granderson on Tuesday afternoons in Cleveland". I get that it is an exaggeration to show the absurdity of "new stats", but usually the stats that a "common fan" cites are more convoluted (pitching wins) and less related to winning baseball games (RBI) than what "stat-heads" actually use. Also, the joke has been done to death poorly by thousands of lazy journalists so come up with a new fucking joke.

Side note: In case Henry and Lucchino missed it: Fowler told tasteofcountry.com recently that he and Beckett are “best buds” and he asked the Red Sox pitcher to appear in the video as a favor. Beckett, an avid hunter, and Fowler were also featured on ESPN2’s “The New American Sportsman” back in 2006 as they joined few pals hoping to “cull the herd” of white-tail deer on Beckett’s Herradura Ranch in South Texas. (Beckett also hosts a celebrity charity hunt there each year to raise money for wounded soldiers.) Fowler’s outdoors sitealso boasts several shots from Beckett's ranch - including one of Beckett with a white-tailed buck and another of Beckett enjoying a cold one during a post-hunt party. I like Fowler's sound and country music in general. He opened for Montgomery Gentry in Foxborough on Sept. 26 and tweeted a photo of himself touring Boston the day before the Red Sox were eliminated. Sounds like another Red Sox Curse to me – right there with LeBron Jamesand Larry David.

This paragraph makes no sense to me. What does it have to do with anything in this article? Just because he said "side note" he gets to talk nonsense?

So Beckett likes hunting and drinking beer – that ought to send the champagne and caviar crowd over the edge. No problem here – as long they're both done legally, responsibly and not during games in the Red Sox clubhouse. But please unload before you get loaded.

Really great word play here and thanks for the sound advice. Of course Beckett is the only player in baseball who likes to drink beer and hunt so this is a great explanation for why the team didn't make the playoffs. Oh, Cliff Lee likes hunting? Miguel Cabrera loves drinking? They both made the playoffs? Damn.

Henry also chimed in about the lack of physical conditioning on the Red Sox, saying he has “learned a lot” recently about getting athletes in shape by watching his soccer players in Liverpool. “I believe there were nutritional issues,” he said. What gave you that idea, John,Matt Albers' 12-pack?

The Scarecrow wanted a brain and the Tin Woodsman needed a heart. Lucchino and Henry need a clue.

Just...terrible. Get some new material you hack.

This ownership group has a terrific record: two World Series titles, the resurrection and renovation of Fenway Park and a determined effort to exorcise the Red Sox’s race-tainted past. But their heart is no longer in it. No one seemed to give a damn this year – from the front office on down – except for a handful of players and about 30 million fans. The manufactured “Sweet Caroline” mentality shoved in our face at Fenway and on NESN comes from the same mind-set. It’s all what they think fans want. Putting a winning team is only part of enhancing the Fenway Experience. But it should be the only concern. Fans will follow this team no matter what's playing on that high-def video board in center field or what the NESN baby says.

I agree that I don't like the extraneous crap and playing Sweet Caroline while the team is losing is a joke. But the truth of the matter is that Wally, Neil Diamond and all the pink hats help generate the revenue that allows the team to spend as much as they do to achieve that terrific record. What else needs to be said here? And why would anybody think that anybody on this team from ownership on down didn't give a damn this year? Doesn't the fact that the Red Sox were the most aggressive club in the off-season and made two trades at the deadline this year show they wanted to win?

The Red Sox are now a subsidiary of themselves – part of the Fenway Sports Management empire. Henry’s “collection of sports assets” landed him on the Forbes 400 list of richest Americans with a net worth of $1.1 billion. As Forbes noted "the assets in Henry’s commodities trading firm once totaled $3 billion put have plummeted more than 90% ... The Red Sox and NESN are what is driving the Henry’s net worth."

Sports ownership isn't a family business as much as it was in the old days. The teams are worth too much and too much goes into the management of other revenue sources for this to be the case across the board. Owning other properties is a BENEFIT not a detractor when you own a franchise. This is how a team in a mid-sized market can spend like a large-market team.

Why isn't the "Occupy Boston" crowd on Lansdowne Street protesting Lackey's contract?

OBF is able to go from a joke about a century old children's story to a joke about a mildly important current event all in the span of a couple of paragraphs. I can't tell if this is comedic genius or total and complete hackery. No, it's definitely genius.

The dispassionate Henry didn’t get to be a billionaire by playing hunches or going with his gut. He’s a numbers guy. We need a left fielder. Run the numbers. We want to add some more seats in Cambridge. Run the numbers. How much can we charge for a beer before fans start lining up for freebies in the Red Sox clubhouse? Run the numbers. The Red Sox spend money – that’s not the issue. They’ll keep spending as long as three million fans keep buying tickets, hot dogs, beer, sushi and millions more watch games on NESN, purchase Red Sox hats, Fenway shirts and an endless stream of merchandise. Henry knows he has to spend our money to make his money in this market.

So OBF admits that Henry got to where he is (a fucking billionaire) by running the numbers and using good business sense. But in doing so in this type of post he is making it seem like this is not a good way to go about running the franchise. A franchise that won two World Series, makes millions of dollars a year and is owned by a billionaire. Again, what exactly is the problem?

Throwing stuff at the television. Feeling unbridled joy after beating New York. Taking the World Series championship edition of the Globe to the grave site of your parents in Arlington so they could indeed rest in peace. None of that is real to these guys. They want their players hugging Yankees fans because it's politically correct and sells. The people who run the Red Sox are more antiseptic than a bottle of Lysol.

So is he saying the owners should be doing these things? Because I've definitely seen shots of Werner and Henry showing some unbridled enthusiasm when the team does well. Also, nobody is holding a gun to fans heads saying they can't act like this. If people aren't doing this anymore it is because the team has won so things seem less like life and death now, and ultimately I think that is probably a good thing. That's how the Brian Stowe beating happens.

They are more about Excel spreadsheets than excellence on the field. Their entire management structure sat back and washed 2011 go down the drain without urgency thanks to those 712 straight sellouts.

The Excel spreadsheets contain information to help the team win, including stats and SCOUTING REPORTS! Excel is an excellent tool that EVERY SINGLE BASEBALL TEAM uses in order to organize information. In fact, the teams probably don't even use Excel they probably use Access or some proprietary database, so get your nerd jokes right if you are going to make them. And nobody sat back and watched 2011 go down the drain, Epstein was trying to make a deal on the last day of the frigging season to find a pitcher that could give them some solid innings.

Francona is gone to Fox. Theo has one foot in Chicago. But even if he goes (or stays with a promotion), it won't solve much. What happens on the field no longer drives the agenda at 4 Yawkey Way. This organization is sleepwalking. Ownership needs to either wake up or sell out.

The organization is absolutely not sleepwalking. Even if you consider the continued improvement of Fenway Park, increasingly creative marketing campaigns and the extreme efforts to make 712 straight sellouts a (semi-) reality "sleepwalking", the team outspent every other team last offseason, had an excellent amateur draft, and made a great deal of in-season moves to try and improve the club for a long playoff run that, for many reasons not related to the effort of the front office, never came.

I understand that Obnoxious Boston Fan is trying to be funny and not completely analytical. I understand that the popularity of the Red Sox with fair weather fans has gotten very annoying. But pretty much nothing this guy said in this post was right or carried any value (or really even funny). And yet there he sits under the banner of "Boston.com", poisoning the minds of impressionable Red Sox fans. The newspaper industry is dying, let's not kill off the internet at the same time.

Quick Hit thoughts for Game 5 vs. New York Jets

2011-10-09T12:10:00.000-07:00

I'm hungover, recovering from a wedding, have a cold and little to no interest in writing. But it's the Jets, so I have to get some thoughts out there.

No Jerod Mayo. Waaaaahh. Replacing Mayo with Gary Guyton is like going from dating Anna Kournikova to Serena Williams.
As of now it looks like Hernandez, Haynesworth and Chung will all be playing today. Obviously Chung is the most important of these because we have nothing else even resembling another safety; but boy is it nice to have Hernandez back. He adds such another dimension to the offense, and after the balanced rushing attack the Pats displayed last week, his return should get them back to good old unstoppable form.
Should be interesting to see how the Jets match up with the Patriots offense. It seems natural to assume that they'll move Revis inside to cover Welker (aka the current best receiver in the NFL), however, they like to keep Revis outside so this marquee match-up may be one we don't get to see much of.
Antonio Cromartie is one of the single most over rated players in the NFL. Please watch how many defensive holding penalties he gets away with today and how many tackles he shies away from. Of all the loathsome players on the Jets, I think I hate him the most. Second most is Cheddar Burress. God do I hate him too. Then Eric Smith and Sanchez.
Will rookie Stevan Ridley continue to see an increase in his carries after his solid week last week, or will Benny be the featured back? Regardless who it is, the Pats should be focusing on another balanced offensive attack today (30 rushes/30 passes last week) considering the Jets are giving up over 180 yards per game on the ground - not to mention their league leading pass D.
The health of NYJ Center Nick Mangold will be one of the key to the game. Mangold is by far and away the best Center in the NFL, and if he misses the game that is a huge advantage to the Pats. Take a nice day off Nick, you deserve it.
Sanchez has looked like a JV QB so far this season. If anyone can turn that around, it's the Patriots pass defense - so today will be a good test for both.
Due to Sanchez's struggles, Rex has been talking about getting back to their "ground and pound" approach, so the Pat's run D will have to set the tone today.
Lets hope Shaun Ellis took some notes from Richard Seymour last week on how not to perform when facing your old team for the first time.
If Woodhead is out, could it be time for Shane Vareen to make an appearance in the 3rd down back role?
The pass rush has been alllllmost getting there for a few weeks now. Today would be a great time for them to close the gap.
Prediction: New England 28 - New York 20

History Lesson: Depth (Part 3)

2011-10-07T12:14:00.000-07:00

Last night, Ivan Nova and Doug Fister squared off in Game 5 of the AL Division Series for the Yankees and Tigers, respectively. Nova is the Yankees's rookie sensation who won 16 games, including 12 decisions in a row, and headed into the post season as the team's number two starter. Fister was picked up in a trade mid-season from the Mariners and proved to be the most important trade acquisition in baseball, stabilizing a shaky Detroit rotation by going 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.6 BB per 9 innings after the trade.

The results of last night's match-up are inconsequential to this discussion (but thank baby Jesus the Tigers won). The reason for highlighting these pitchers is because Red Sox fans and media have wondered why the Red Sox didn't have a pitcher from the minors like Nova or why they didn't make a trade for a pitcher like Fister, but instead threw out the likes of Andrew Miller, Kyle Weiland and Tim Wakefield in key September starts while the playoffs were slipping away.

Hypothesis
The Red Sox had as much depth as any other contender to fill in for reasonable amounts of injuries through call-ups and trades. As I stated in Part 1, the injuries the Red Sox had to face were more severe than the other contenders and therefore giving September starts to Miller, Weiland and Wakefield did not expose their lack of depth, it exposed the severity of their injuries. The Red Sox traded for solid players and called up a few promising prospects just like their counterparts, but were unable to overcome their significant injuries.

Trades

I have heard a lot of people question why the Red Sox didn’tdo more at the trade deadline to acquire starting pitching. The simple answeris that they did! With the clock ticking away on the deadline, the Red Soxacquired Erik Bedard from the Seattle Mariners. Granted, Bedard was coming offan injury and with his long history of injuries the move was a risk.Prophetically, he reinjured his knee in September and was unable to come backeffectively. But did the team reallywhiff on anybody better?

There were 4 starters, including Bedard, who could beconsidered impact pitchers and were moved at the deadline and 2 pitchers theteam supposedly had deals for that fell through.

Ubaldo Jimenez was the prize pitcher of this year’s deadline. The Red Soxsupposedly made tremendous efforts to get him, but at the end of the day theydidn’t have tandem pitching prospects to match Drew Pomeranz and Alex White andeven if they did I would not have wanted them to give up that kind of package.Even if they were able to get him, he posted a 5.10 ERA with Cleveland so hewould not have been much help.
Edwin Jackson was having a solid year for the White Sox before beingtraded twice in one day. He pitched well down the stretch and pitched a greatGame 4 for the Cardinals a couple nights ago. But there is a reason Jackson hasbeen traded 6 times in his 8 year career. He usually wears out his welcome withpoor performance or poor attitude, two things the Red Sox did not need. Also,the Sox had nobody with near the value of Colby Rasmus besides Jacoby Ellsburyand I’m guessing nobody would want to make that trade.
Rich Harden was very nearly in Boston as there was a deal in place withOakland for Lars Anderson. Ultimately, the Sox looked at his medicals anddecided he would not be healthy enough to contribute to the team. It turns outthey were basically right. In August and September, Harden made only 2 morestarts than Bedard, but was way worse in his 10 starts than Bedard in his 8. In6 August starts, Harden posted an ERA of 4.76. In September, that jumped to a6.98 ERA over 4 starts. Harden would not have been part of the solution, hewould have been part of the problem.
Hiroki Kuroda also nearly became a Red Sox, but he invoked his no tradeclause to veto a deal that was supposedly in place. He pitched great down thestretch and would have been a HUGE addition to this rotation. But the mannegotiated a no trade clause into his contract for a reason and it is his rightto invoke it.
Finally, Fister was never rumored to be pursued by Boston. As apre-arbitration eligible player he did not seem to be a prime trade candidate.Also up until this season he had been a fairly uninspiring pitcher. He postedsome pretty small walk rates in previous years, but they were also accompaniedby small strike out rates. He did not allow many home runs, but he pitched inSeattle where nobody allows home runs. At 27 years old he just seemed like acontrol pitcher who benefited from a huge ballpark and some great defensiveteams. We have to tip our hats to the Tigers for seeing more in him, but we can’tfault the Red Sox for not picking him up.

So the Red Sox did about as well as they could with whatthey had to offer. And in the starts that Bedard made besides his last 2, hewas pretty effective.

Another point to make is that on July 31^st, theSox didn’t really seem to need any more starters. This is what I wrote in mytrade deadline preview:

Today let’s start with the position that shouldn’t be a need, but with injuries to Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka and possibly Josh Beckett it could very well be a huge area of concern.(snip)Theo should stand pat for as long as possible. It appears that the injuries to Lester, Buchholz and Beckett will not be too serious and that barring any new injuries they will all be healthy for the post season. Even with a couple of these guys missing another month or two, I think the Red Sox will at worst end up as the Wild Card because of their ridiculous offense. If it turns out that one of these three does have a serious injury, then he really needs to look at acquiring someone from the Deschanel or Peet groups. The key here is the playoff rotation; if they acquire someone who will play a role in the playoffs then it is worth it. Otherwise, I don’t think anyone on this list (save for Jimenez and Garza) would push any of the Sox top 3 starters to the bullpen in the playoffs. In addition, I think Tim Wakefield, Andrew Miller, John Lackey, Felix Doubront, Kevin Millwood and Kyle Weiland are more than adequate to serve as 4^th and 5^th starters for the rest of the regular season.

At the deadline, we all thought Clay Buchholz would be back,but as I said, if one of the top 3 pitchers weren’t going to be back, the Soxneeded to trade for one of the pitchers I suggested, which they did (Bedard wasin my Amanda Peet group).

I also said that the team had plenty of pitching out of the4 and 5 spot to end up as the Wild Card. Here I was partially right. As 4^thand 5^th starters that group would have been fine. Unfortunately atone stretch in September, Lackey was 2^nd, Wakefield 3^rd,Miller 4^th and Weiland 5^th, which was completelyunforeseeable at the deadline.

Finally, we have to remember exactly what the state of therace was on July 31. The Red Sox were in first place by 2 games over theYankees. The next best record in the AL at the time was held by the Rangers andit was still 8 games worse than Boston. The Rays were 11 games back in the losscolumn. How many starting pitchers would you reasonably acquire with that typeof lead?

I will make a concession here. In hindsight, the teamprobably should have acquired a bullpen arm. Daniel Bard was already beingworked pretty hard and at that point Aceves hadn’t emerged as the SwissArmy Knife he would become. The Rangers picked up two impact relievers at thedeadline, but had to give up some major league talent that the Red Sox did notwant to spare for a reliever. The Rangers went 1 for 2 in their trades as KojiUehara suffered some serious gopheritis in Texas, but Mike Adams transformedthe Texas bullpen into a scary weapon. The Sox could have made the same trades,but it is so hard to know with relief pitchers that it is probably best theystayed out of this market.

Minor Leagues

Craig Robinson of the entertaining site Flip Flop Flyballput together a bunch of visuals about the 2011 playoff teams for Grantland.com.One of his visuals shows how each player on the 8 playoff teams was acquired(draft, amateur free agent, trade, free agent, Rule 5 draft, waiver claim). Belowis my best guess at what the Red Sox playoff roster would have been and howeach player was acquired:

DRAFT (8 players): Jed Lowrie, Dustin Pedroia, Josh Reddick, Jacoby Ellsbury,Jon Lester, Daniel Bard, Jonathan Papelbon, Clay Buchholz

TRADE (8): Mike Aviles, Adrian Gonzalez, Jason Varitek, JarrodSaltalamacchia, Josh Beckett, Erik Bedard, Andrew Miller, Franklin Morales

FREE AGENT (9): Marco Scutaro, David Ortiz, Carl Crawford, J.D. Drew, JohnLackey, Alfredo Aceves, Dan Wheeler, Darnell McDonald, Matt Albers

If you didn’t click through the link, I will let you knowthat the only teams with more players acquired through the draft than the RedSox are the Rays and Cardinals. In fact, with a healthy Kevin Youkilis and ifthey wanted to substitute Ryan Lavarnway for Andrew Miller or Franklin Morales,the Red Sox would have had as many drafted players as the Cardinals. In addition, Alfredo Aceves, Darnell McDonald and Andrew Miller started this year or last year in the Red Sox minor leauges and Jason Varitek was acquired as a minor leaguer.

One argument might be that, yes, there are a lot of homegrown players on that list, but what have you done for me lately? Well, the longest tenured player on that list is Pap and he debuted in 2005. Lester came up in 2006, Pedroia, Buchholz and Ellsbury in 2007, Lowrie in 2008, Bard in 2009 and Reddick last year. So no player that debuted this year was going to be on the post season roster, but most of these guys were left off post season rosters in their debut year also. Lavarnway, Jose Iglesias, Weiland, Doubront and Anderson all debuted either this year or last year and each could play a role on future Red Sox playoff teams. The Yankees, Rangers, Tigers and Brewers were all without drafted rookies on their playoff rosters as well.

The legit argument here is where the hell are the home grownforeign born players? Notably, the Yankees had 5 of these such playersincluding impact rookies Nova and Jesus Montero. Though Doubront and Iglesiasmade appearances this season, Doubront was not healthy enough and Iglesiassimply was not ready. But beyond these two players, what else do the Red Soxhave? Junichi Tazawa out of Japan, Chih –Hsien Chiang out ofTaiwan (but used to acquire Bedard), Yamaico Navarro from DR (also traded, for MikeAviles), Stolmy Pimentel from DR and Che-Hsuan Lin from Taiwan are the top foreignborn players that played in AA or AAA this year. None of them appear to bestars and some may not make the majors. Supposedly they have some intriguing foreign born players inthe lower levels, but these kids are teenagers and therefor hard to projectrealistically. The problem becomes magnified when you look at the Yankeesgraduating Nova and Montero this year and having Dellin Betances and MannyBanuelos ready to come up next year. Though it is disappointing to see a lack of young Dominicanplayers, I would counter that the Red Sox are still producing excellent draftclasses that far outshine what the Yankees do and that are not much worse thanthe Rays, while drafting in considerably lower slots.

Finally, the gripe over not having depth in the minorleagues seems to center around Ivan Nova (and Matt Moore and Jeremy Hellicksonwith the Rays, but in my opinion they are canceled out by producing Lester andBuchholz). Why were the Red Sox not able to call upon someone like Nova whenall the pitchers got hurt? First of all, this is not a 1 to 1 comparisonbecause Nova opened the year in the rotation, so he was never an injuryreplacement. Secondly, Nova was very lucky this season. Usually pitchers whostrike out 5 batters per 9 while also walking 3 batters per 9 do not find muchsuccess, so I’m not exactly sold on his future. And third, Weiland, though hewas a disaster in the Majors, had a comparable minor league track record toNova only with more strike outs and more walks, so while he was not up to the task the way Nova was, one could have expected at least capable performance.

Conclusion

I think I have to say that my hypothesis was about 90% correct. The key to my hypothesis was a "reasonable amount of injuries", which, I think, in Part 1 I showed the team had an unreasonable amount of injuries.

Next, I showed that the Red Sox did trade for one of the better available pitchers on the trade market to guard against Buchholz not returning. That Bedard did not work out as they hoped does not mean they did not make the effort. Though they could have traded for a reliever, it is not clear that another reliever would have helped much at all. I didn't even bring up the fact that they traded for a super utility player in Aviles, who, despite some adventures on the base paths and at an unfamiliar third base, proved to be extremely valuable as a fill in for Youkilis, Scutaro, Lowrie and Drew. Aviles was probably the best back up infielder among contenders besides Michael Young (who is really a DH) and Theo Epstein did a great job acquiring him.

Then I looked at the help provided by the minor leagues. What I found was that in terms of home grown talent, the Red Sox are as good as almost any other team, despite not having an impact rookie this year. Injuries forced them to call upon Kyle Weiland and Jose Iglesias too soon and they were unable to answer the call, but this is not necessarily a failure of scouting and development. On the other hand, Reddick and Lavarnway made positive contributions this year and Navarro and other mid-level prospects allowed the team to make some needed trades. Where the organization appears to be in a rut is with its international scouting and development. If you want to find a flaw in the depth of the organization this season, that is where I will concede they failed.

A team can only plan to have so much depth. No team no matter how deep their pockets will have an All Star at every position, let alone an All Star to back them up. Every team, including the Red Sox, has to and usually is ready to cover up a certain level of injuries and had that threshold not been exceeded this year, it appears the club would have been fine. Unfortunately for us, the volume of injuries forced the team to dig deeper than any other contender to fill out an every day lineup and pitching staff. No amount of planning could have reasonably been ready for this.

Next, I will look into some individual offenders of the September collapse, starting with our beloved ace, Jon Lester...

NFL First Quarter Report

2011-10-06T12:29:00.000-07:00

Bill Belichick often say it takes about 4 weeks to know what kind of team you have (6 may be more accurate this year given the lockout, but whatever) - so on that note, here are some random NFL thoughts after the first quarter of the season.

* The biggest story of the season to date has to be the 4-0 Detroit Lions. The Lions flashed their potential in a major way against N.E. in the pre-season; but that was only preseason. While I figured they would be a good team, I ultimately thought they were a year away from making the playoffs (I picked them to go 8-8 in an article that never got posted). Calvin Johnson has looked downright unstoppable and could give Randy a run for his money for the TD record. What's been most impressive is the lack of quit in these young pups (down by 24 at Dallas & 20 vs. Minny). With quite a few winnable games remaining on their schedule (Chicago twice, Minny, Denver, Carolina & Oakland, among others); the Lions have a legitimate shot at the playoff and should be fun to watch for the rest of the season.

* As good as Detroit may look, the road through the NFC North; and NFL for that matter; still goes through Green Bay. The Packers look to be by far and away the best team in the league. Aaron Rodgers has quickly staked his claim as the 2nd best QB in the NFL and has weapons galore. They have the least flaws of any team, and have yet to show any signs of a "Super Bowl Hangover". Apparently they didn't spend 3 months in Vegas celebrating their championship a la Paul Pierce.

* On the opposite end of the spectrum from Detroit, I'd like to congratulate the Philadelphia Eagles for winning this years "Washington Redskins Memorial May Super Bowl Champions" award. Every year the 'Skins make headlines in the off-season with big name signings and high hopes as Super Bowl contenders. And every year they suck. "The Dream Team" has looked like anything but so far this year. While they should still sneak into the playoffs, it's hard to see them living up to expectations.

* I understand the need to protect Quarterbacks/defenseless receivers to a certain degree, but the league has gotten out of control with these penalties. I've seen countless flags for personal fouls on plays where defenders use textbook tackling technique, or an offensive player ducks into an "illegal" hit to draw a flag. It's football. People are going to get hit hard. Save the penalties for blatant violations, otherwise, let them play. We don't want this NFL to turn into this.

* This one hurts: I wanted so badly for Cam Newton to be terrible. I wanted to laugh at Carolina for taking him #1 overall and having him be a complete bust. All sings pointed to him being Vince Young 2.0; supremely athletic but by no means a quarterback. Well so far I was about as close as a Donavon McNabb throw on that one. I guess that's what I get for not watching much college football. Of course 4 games is way too few to judge, and I'm not convinced he'll get much better from here; but still; ouch.

* Found this stat pretty interesting: Since the start of the 2010 season, BJGE has 14 rushing TD's, second in the NFL only to Arian Foster.

* Found this stat pretty funny (or depressing depending on how cynical you want to be): Leading the Patriots in interceptions in Kyle Arrington with 3. Second on the team - Big Vince Wilfork. While that may not be shocking, this is - the 325 lb. Wilfork leads the team with 47 interception return yards, more than all of the other interception returns. COMBINED. (44 yards on 5 INT's to Vince's 47 on 2)

* After 4 games I have literally no idea who the favorite in the AFC should be. As frustrating as the Pats D has been to watch, every team in the conference has flaws. The two top competitors in the AFC for the Pats so far look to be Baltimore and Houston. I have about as much confidence in their QB's as I do that this article will get read by more than 10 people. Add in how injury prone the Texans have historically been, and the aging Ravens defense, and I'm not very concerned. Of course there's the Jets, but they've looked terrible to date and we'll get plenty more answers about them come Sunday. It may be tough to have much long term faith in the Pats given their last place D, but if you look around the league, things could be worse.

* If you like to look at the technical aspect of football or want a better understanding of how a play works, then ESPNBoston's Patriots blog has an awesome new weekly piece that is worth a look. Using screen shots, they break down the "Play of the Game" for each week and dissect the key match-ups within that play. This past weeks' edition for Stevan Ridley's 33 yard touchdown run is a fine example.

* Tom Brady is really, really good. So is Wes.

History Lesson: September Pitching (Part 2)

2011-10-05T10:32:00.000-07:00

The Red Sox pitching in September was Loiazan. This is no surprise, and it is not my hypothesis. Even the staunchest supporters of the "bad chemistry" theory can admit that the pitching was just plain terrible in September (although all those chemists point to this drinking story as a reason why, not a combination of bad talent and bad timing; because the Red Sox are definitively the only team in baseball with pitchers that drink between starts; riiiiight).

In September, Red Sox pitchers allowed 6.37 runs per game (earned and unearned). From April-May they had allowed 4.19 runs per game. They went from an above average pitching staff to an historically bad one. While this was happening, the offense more or less remained the same (5.4 runs per game in September, 5.4 runs per game through the whole season), elite compared to the rest of the league, but not historically elite. Because the 2011 Red Sox offense was unable to morph into a combination of the late 90s Cleveland Indians and late 20s New York Yankees, that September pitching became a problem.

Hypothesis
It is impossible to win consistently when giving up over 6 runs per game. Now I know this won't exactly get me a book deal or a job as Theo Epstein's Assistant General Manager with the Chicago Cubs (gulp!). But I think this is a necessary hypothesis to pursue. I still hear people explaining the collapse with intangible reasons, but even if we don't want to admit injuries played a major (in my opinion the biggest) role in the collapse, the bad pitching is so glaringly obvious I do not see how people don't just use this as the reason and move on. Below is a whole bunch of examples showing just how difficult it is to win while allowing over 6 runs per game.

The 2011 Red Sox
The 2011 Red Sox allowed 6 runs or more in 52 games this season (32% of all games), 5th worst in the American League. In these games they had a record of 14-38, amounting to a .269 Win Percentage. The 14 wins and .269 Win Percentage were the best in the American League in games where teams allowed 6 runs or more, a testament to the mighty Red Sox offense (Baltimore was just 1-65 in these games). I'll repeat that: the Red Sox had the best record in the American League when allowing 6 runs or more, but that amounted to just a .269 Win Percentage.

In September, things got really insane for the Red Sox. In 27 September games, the Red Sox pitchers allowed 6 runs or more in 19 games (70% of games). Until September, the Red Sox had only allowed 6 runs or more in 33 games (24% of all games). If they had kept this pace, they would have only 6 or 7 games in September in which they gave up 6 runs or more. Instead there were 19 games. In those 19 games, the Red Sox won 4 for a .210 Win Percentage, which was still above average for the league.

One last set of numbers: In September, the Red Sox's Win Percentage was .259, almost exactly what it was over the course of the season when allowing 6 runs in a game.

Historical Record in 6+ Run Games
Even though offense was down some this year, teams never do well in games when they allow at least 6 runs. The Major League Win Percentage for teams allowing 6 or more runs per game this year was .149. Most years, the Win Percentage is a little higher than this, but not much. The highest league wide Win Percentage was .247 in 1930*.

*1930 was one of the most ridiculous offensive seasons of all time. The league average for runs scored was 5.6 runs per game; 8 hitters hit at least .370; Hack Wilson set the Major League RBI record with 191.

Only 15 teams have ever had at least a .400 Win Percentage in these games:

1946 Red Sox, .400 - Ted Williams' first season back from WWII and first MVP
1999 Indians, .403 - First team to score 1,000 runs, averaged 6.22 runs per game, often hit Jim Thome 7th, Manny Ramirez drove in 165 runs
1942 Red Sox, .405 - Ted does it again
1939 Yankees, .406 - Team scored 967 runs, averaged 6.27 runs per game, Joe Dimaggio hit .381 and won his first MVP
1928 Yankees, .408 - Lou Gehrig, Babe Ruth, nuff ced
1999 Diamondbacks, .412 - 1999 was a truly crazy offensive year
1995 Indians, .415 - 50 HR from Albert Belle, Manny batting 7th
2008 Cubs, .415
1902 Pirates, .417 - Only 25 such games
1927 Yankees, .419 - Probably the greatest team of all time, Ruth's 60 HR season
1961 Yankees, .429 - 54 HR for Mantle, 61 HR for Maris
1934 Tigers, .440
1929 Cubs, .450 - Rogers Hornsby and Wilson combine for 308 RBI
1912 Giants, .452 - Only 32 such games
1975 Reds, .500 - Big Red Machine, only 28 games

The reason I wrote this list out is to show you that even the best of the best struggle to win when allowing 6 runs a game. The best record ever is only .500. On this list we have probably the two best teams ever ('75 Reds and '27 Yankees), 2 of the previous single season home run record seasons, teams led by Ted Williams, Joe DiMaggio and Rogers Hornsby and the first team to ever score 1,000 runs in a season. We also have a few instances of teams rarely allowing 6 runs, which can lead to a fluky record. There are really only 2 seasons that seem inexplicable ('08 Cubs and '34 Tigers), but, as we all know now, you kind of have to expect the unexpected with baseball every now and then.

Bad Pitching Staffs

Over the last 20 years, in some of the craziest offensive seasons in baseball history, only 1 team has allowed more runs per game over a full season than the Red Sox did in September this year. I will get to that team in a bit.

Over this time, 12 pitching staffs have given up at least 5.95 runs per game over a full season.

1996 Rockies, 5.95 runs, 83-79 - The league average runs allowed was 5.05 this season and the team scored only 3 less runs than it allowed on the whole season
1993 Rockies, 5.97 runs, 67-95 - First season in the franchise's existence, Armando Reynoso is the only starter with an ERA under 5
2008 Rangers, 5.97 runs, 79-83 - Vicente Padilla led the team with a 4.74 ERA
2001 Rangers, 5.97 runs, 73-89 - 4 starters started at least 15 games and posted ERAs over 6; A-Rod had 52 HR and Palmeiro had 47 to keep the record respectable
2003 Rangers, 5.98 runs, 71-91 - John Thomson led the team with a 4.85 ERA
2006 Royals, 5.99 runs, 62-100 - Luke Hudson led the team with a 5.12 ERA, 17 different pitchers started a game, only pitcher with an ERA under 5 to start a game was Adam Bernero who started twice, Mark Redman makes All-Star game and finishes season with 5.71 ERA
2000 Rangers, 6.01 runs, 71-91 - The inspiration for the A-Rod mega deal, Esteban Loiaza appears
1994 Twins, 6.09 runs, 53-60 - Strike season
1994 Rangers, 6.11 runs, 52-52 - Strike season, ended up FIRST in the AL West
1995 Twins, 6.17 runs, 56-88 - Strike season, Kevin Tappani led the team with a 4.92 ERA
1999 Rockies, 6.35 runs, 72-90 - The league average runs allowed was 5.08 this season, Jamey Wright led the team with 4.87 ERA, John Thomson started 13 games and had an 8.04 ERA

The only team with a worse runs per game average than the September, 2011 Red Sox is the 1996 Detroit Tigers. That team allowed 6.81 runs per game and finished the season with a 53-109 record, one of the worst in Major League history. Offense was way up in 1996 as the Braves led baseball with 4 runs per game, but this was a terrible pitching staff. 16 different pitchers started a game. Felipe Lira led the team in starts with 32 and finished with a 6-14 record and 5.22 ERA. Omar Oliveres led the team in wins with 7 and had a 4.89 ERA. Greg Olson led the team in saves with 8. Only 1 pitcher on the entire team had an ERA less than 4.18 (Joey Eischen with a 3.24 ERA in just 25 innings pitched).

The reason I bring up these teams is to show you the types of pitching staffs that usually produce this poorly. In every situation there was either a crazy offensive environment, a crazy hitters' park, terrible pitchers or a combination of all three. These staffs usually lead to a terrible team record; the high octane '96 Rockies being the exception. The Red Sox played this year in a decent offensive environment, decent hitters' park and mixed Jon Lester and Josh Beckett in with some terrible pitchers. In other words, they don't fit the usual model.

Conclusion

It is impossible to have a winning record when allowing 6 runs or more per game. No shit.

So maybe I did not discover the theory of relativity here, but I hope I was able to show just how bleak the Red Sox staff was in September. The team gave up 6 runs or more in 70% of its September games. This season they won about 27% of all these types of games, which was still above the league average of 15% and historically was in the top 10%. Even the best teams in history were never able to win more than half of these types of games, and that was only one special team. The staff performed worse than all but the worst of the pitching staffs of the last 20 years, but did so with much better pitchers including Beckett and Lester.

Some people may want to say that this bad pitching was the result of the pitchers not having enough testicular fortitude, but I think the reasons are far more tangible than that. The fact that the team only had one good, healthy pitcher pitching every turn in September is a big cause for this massive decline. Lester was the only above average pitcher to make every start in the final month and even he couldn't pitch up to his usual standards (we will explore why in another History Lesson). The other two good starters, Beckett and Erik Bedard both missed starts with injuries and both were unable to perform in the starts they made, maybe because of injuries. The rest of the starts were taken by 3 pitchers who just aren't good enough to start for a contender (Kyle Weiland, Andrew Miller, Tim Wakefield) and a formerly good pitcher having the worst season in Red Sox history (Lackey). Add in the struggles of an overworked bullpen and it was too much for the team to over come.

For the next History Lesson, I will look at the pitching again and try to determine if a lack of depth magnified the injury problems and how they could have solved this...

History Lesson: Injuries (Part 1)

2011-10-04T11:28:00.000-07:00

It is time to dive into the collapse once and for all. I amnot sure how many parts this will take or what answers I will find. I havepreconceived notions about each topic that I plan to discuss, but I am going toback each argument up with research. Sometimes I may be wrong and sometimes Imay be right, but I promise to give unbiased research for each topic. I willstart each part off with what I think is right and then will dive into theresearch to confirm or refute my own theory. Sounds exciting right? While thescientific method may not sound exciting, hopefully it will bring us all someclosure.

Today I will look at injuries as a cause for the Red Soxcollapse. Injuries seem to be the topic that nobody likes to discuss. For one,people tend to think that every team has injuries so if everyone is on a levelplaying field with respect to injuries then this is a poor argument. Two,talking about injuries is just sad and boring. There is no way to predictinjuries (yet) and prevention is equally unpredictable. Plus, we as fans arenot really privy to the methods of preparation and prevention nor the people incharge of the medical and training staffs so when there is a failure there isnobody to focus the blame on so it becomes a dead end. And three, people seeinjuries as a cop out. They think that these pretty boy millionaires should beable to play through a stiff neck, strained muscle or bone sticking out of theflesh because at the end of the day they get to go home to their mansions andsuper model wives and this is their job, damnit!

Hypothesis

I think injuries were the major cause of the Red SoxSeptember collapse. I believe that early season injuries led to a weakening ofthe team’s pitching staff and then September injuries to key everyday playersturned a steady and great offense into a streaky unpredictable one. I alsobelieve that these problems were worse for the Red Sox than for every otherAmerican League contender (New York, Tampa, Detroit, Texas, Los Angeles). Toback this hypothesis up, I am going to look at the opening day starters (orplatoon partners in cases like Scutaro and Lowrie), rotation, and top 4 bullpenarms for each contender and see how much time they missed over the season. Hopefully this will shift the talk of chemistry over to the talk of biology (science joke!).

First Base

Boston: 2 games (All games missed were best estimates based on Game Logs from Baseball-Reference.com)

New York: 2 games
Tampa: 0 games

Detroit: 0 games

Texas: 0 games

Los Angeles: 162 games

Los Angeles lost Kendrys Morales before the season startedfor the full year, but got decent production out of Rookie of the Year candidateMark Trumbo. Boston, New York and Detroit all have MVP level first baseman whomissed few to no games this year. Tampa and Texas had a first base committeebased on effectiveness and specialty so it is too difficult to assign injurytime to them.

Second Base

Boston: 0 games

New York: 0 games

Tampa: 0 games

Detroit: 0 games

Texas: 3 games

Los Angeles: 14 games

LA starts the injury prone Howie Kendrick, who actuallyplayed in his second most games in his career this year. Boston, New York andTexas all start MVP caliber second basemen. Tampa starts an MVP caliber secondbaseman in Ben Zobrist, but he also plays right field so it is tough to measurehow many games were missed due to injury. Detroit has a poor man’s Zobrist inRyan Raburn, who shared the position with Ramon Santiago and a few others.

Short Stop

Boston: 57 games

New York: 18 games

Tampa: 0 games

Detroit: 0 games

Texas: 8 games

Los Angeles: 14 games

Boston lost Jed Lowrie for 51 games and Marco Scutaro for 6. Derek Jeter spent 18 days on the DL in mid-season, but this was also right in the middle of a huge slump, after which he turned his season around. Tampa again had a short stop by committee all season. Detroit had an All Star shortstop healthy for the whole year. Elvis Andrus never missed more than 4 games in a row. Erick Aybar got his DL stint out of the way in April for the Angels.

Third Base

Boston: 32 games (probably should have missed more)

New York: 56 games

Tampa: 28 games

Detroit: 0 games

Texas: 37 games

Los Angeles: 7 games

Boston, New York, Tampa and Texas all lost their All Star third basemen for long stretches of the season, but only Texas was lucky enough to also have an All Star (Michael Young) as a replacement. Detroit had Brandon Inge starting most games, but he also had stints in AAA which led to his games missed.

Catcher

Boston: 2 games

New York: 9 games

Tampa: 24 games

Detroit: 6 games
Texas: 8 games
Los Angeles: 0 games
The only team with real injury issues was Tampa, but their catchers were terrible healthy or not. Los Angeles gave 36 starts to a third catcher (Bobby Wilson) but this is because Hank Conger was sent down to AAA for a month.

Left Field
Boston: 24 games
New York: 0 games
Tampa: 0 games
Detroit: 0 games
Texas: 36 games
Los Angeles: 26 games
Boston and L.A. probably wished their left fielders (Carl Crawford and Vernon Wells) missed more time. Detroit lost youngster Brennan Boesch for the last month of the season, but he had already been replaced by Delmon Young at the trade deadline. New York got a full season out of a rich man's Crawford (Brett Gardner) and others. Texas dealt with another incomplete season from Josh Hamilton. Tampa started the year with Sam Fuld, but he gave way to super prospect Desmond Jennings.

Center Field
Boston: 3 games
New York: 0 games
Tampa: 2 games
Detroit: 3 games
Texas: 0 games
Los Angeles: 11 games
What a healthy position center field turned out to be. You'd think with all the running and highlight real plays made in center there would be more injuries. Boston and New York had MVP caliber center fielders stay healthy all year. Tampa, Detroit and Los Angeles had elite defenders in center staying healthy most of the year. Texas had a center field by committee.

Right Field
Boston: 70 games
New York: 7 games
Tampa: 0 games
Detroit: 0 games
Texas: 34 games
Los Angeles: 3 games
Detroit employed a right field by committee led by aging star Magglio Ordonez. Texas got another injury prone season from Nelson Cruz. Red Sox fans may be shocked to know this was the only season in 5 years that J.D. Drew played in fewer than 109 games.

DH
Boston: 12 games
New York: 0 games
Tampa: 0 games
Detroit: 13 games
Texas: 0 games
Los Angeles: 0 games
New York employed a DH by committee for their older players. Tampa and Los Angeles featured a couple former Yankees hitters for the majority of the year (Johnny Damon and Bobby Abreu). Only David Ortiz and Victor Martinez missed time to injury in this group.

POSITIONAL GAMES MISSED TOTAL
Boston: 202 games
New York: 92 games
Tampa: 54 games
Detroit: 22 games
Texas: 126 games
Los Angeles: 237 games
L.A. is the only team to miss more games from starting position players than the Red Sox, but 162 of those games were missed by 1 man and his replacement nearly duplicated his output.

Starts Outside of Original 5 Starting Pitchers
Boston: 52 starts
New York: 28 starts (not including 2 end of season starts in meaningless games)
Tampa: 14 starts
Detroit: 19 starts
Texas: 5 starts
Los Angeles: 37 starts
With huge injuries to Daisuke Matsuzaka and Clay Buchholz, the Red Sox run away with this one. New York's numbers are skewed because they used a 6 man rotation for parts of the season and Phil Hughes missed as many starts to injury as he did to ineffectiveness. Los Angeles's numbers are pumped up by the mysterious case of Scott Kazmir who makes John Lackey look like Bob Gibson at this point.

Top 4 Bullpen Pitchers (Closer, 7th and 8th inning guys, Lefty specialist)
Boston: Bobby Jenks appeared in 9 games after April; Rich Hill appeared in 9 games total
New York: Rafael Soriano missed a month and a half
Tampa: Juan Cruz missed 2 weeks, Kyle Farnsworth missed 2 weeks
Detroit: No established 7th inning guy
Texas: Mark Lowe missed 2 weeks
Los Angeles: Fernando Rodney missed a month and a half, Scott Downs missed 2 weeks
Again, the Red Sox had way more time missed to their top bullpen guys than any other team. The Angels come in second yet again. New York, Tampa, Detroit and Texas (the 4 playoff teams) had very healthy bullpens.

Conclusion
The Red Sox were more injured than any contending team besides maybe the Angels. The Angels lost more positional games than the Sox, but 68% came from one player (Kendrys Morales) who was actually replaced very admirably by a Rookie of the Year candidate (Mark Trumbo). The big injuries for the Red Sox were in the starting rotation and bullpen, which led to a horrendous final month in pitching (this will be the topic of the next History Lesson). Not all injuries are created equally, but the Red Sox lost a couple of their best players (Youkilis and Buchholz) for a large portion of the season so it's not like we are talking about Darnell McDonald missing a couple weeks with hemorrhoids (from sitting the bench so much). The Yankees and Rays lost their MVP-caliber third baseman also, but were otherwise relatively healthy.

The dirty little secret in baseball and all other sports is that usually the healthiest teams prevail. Starting caliber players start for a reason and when they miss time there is usually a sizable drop in talent and production in their replacement. Great teams are able to absorb an major injury or two, but in the case of the Red Sox (and the Angels) there were too many injuries to cover up. I really do not think it is a coincidence that the 2 most injured teams out of the 6 American League contenders were the 2 teams that did not make the playoffs. Feel free to argue this point if you want, but please show your work.

Next, I will look at just how bad the pitching was in September and the rest of the season...

Hello old friend; it's really scary to see you once again - Game 4 at Oakland

2011-10-01T19:01:00.001-07:00

The following is from one of my first SBS posts; a draft preview article discussing the need to draft a DE; and it seems worth repeating given the circumstances:

"The date was September 6^th, 2009- the Sunday of Labor Day weekend. I was sitting at a diner in Hyannis with a group of friends recounting ridiculous stories of the past weekend (people falling off docks and into the harbor for a late night swim, girls kicking through glass doors to get into the hotel, etc) when my phone rang. It was Papa O. I assumed it was the standard call to make sure I was still alive after a weekend adventure with the idiots I call my friends. Nope.

'Did you hear the Pats traded Seymour' he asked. Whaaaaaaa? I shared the news with the table and started getting chewed out as if I was the one who traded him. So much for don’t shoot the messenger. How could they trade Big Rich? One of the unquestioned leaders of the team; a 5 time Pro Bowl selection (and 3x 1^st team All-Pro); was gone? You know it’s bad when even the girls at the table are upset that a Defensive End was traded. I can’t even think of the male equivalent to that – being upset over what dress Jessica Biel wore to the Oscars? Outraged at which golddigger got voted off of The Bachelor? I don’t know, think of something funny and laugh."

This will be the first meeting between Big Rich and the Pats since the trade. While I love Seymour and everything he did for the Pats (and for punching Big Ben in the face; hence the picture above), I hope he remembers how much he enjoyed his years here and takes it easy on his old team. Stay away from Tom, Mr. Seymour. Please.

After a putrid week of sports throughout Boston, can the Pats put a historical loss behind them and move on against an up-and-coming Raiders team coming off a big win against the Jets? The secondary is thin once again (Bodden & Ras-I are out while Chung is coming back from surgery on his thumb), and the Raiders are leading the NFL in rushing. The freaks of the Black Hole celebrate Halloween year round, making Oakland a tough place to play. I enjoyed this quote from G Brian Waters (who traveled to Oakland many a time during his days with KC) about the weirdest thing he ever saw from the Black Hole: "I’ll say this, that's the first time I ever saw an old lady in a wheelchair shooting me the bird with both fingers. That’s crazy right there." So how will Brady and the Pats respond to the Raiders and their ill-mannered old women? Lets take a look at some key match ups.

New England Offense vs. Oakland Defense

Running Game:
While all the talk this week will be about the Raiders and their league leading Rushing attack, lets take a quick look at the other side of the ball. For all the success Oakland has had running the ball, they've been equally as bad at stopping the run. As talented as the Raiders D-line may be, opponents are averaging a league leading 5.8 yards per carry on the year. Raiders linebacker Rolando McClain made headlines this week by calling the Pats' a finesse team.The Patriots have a penchant for making anyone who runs their mouth eat their words (see ex-Steelers safety Anthony Smith), so perhaps the Pat's will make Mr. McClain realize that giving up 5.8ypc is just about as finesse as it gets. The Patriots struggled a bit at times to run the ball last week, but I see a focused effort on establishing the ground game to slow down the Raiders pass rush. Rookie Stevan Ridley was effective last week, so look for him to get a few more chances this week.
Advantage - Patriots

Passing Game:
As big of a disaster as last week was, consider this for a second: Tom Brady threw as many interceptions in one game last week, as he did in all 16 games in 2010 (45 attempts last week compared to 492 in 2010). While Brady's ridiculous stats in 2010 were an anomaly, so to was the game vs. Buffalo (plus, only one of those picks was his fault - well 1.5 if you want to give some of the blame on the one to Chad Johnson, which would be fair - but I hate Chad so I'm calling it one). Point being - last week is not going to happen again.

Now, onto this week. As banged up as the Pats' secondary may be, it's not all sunshine and rainbows in the Raiders defensive backfield. After losing their best player to free agency (Nnamdi Asomugha), the injury bug has hit Oakland's D-backs over the past couple weeks. As Tedy Bruschi points out:

"Free safety Michael Huff had a concussion. Left cornerback Chris Johnson injured his hamstring. So you have to monitor those two situations this week. Overall, this is a defense that has given it up against the pass -- 264 yards to Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 2, and 369 to Mark Sanchez last week. I'm sure Tom Brady sees that, and if he gets time, I think he'll like what he sees in terms of matchups."

The key here today will be how the offensive line can hold up in pass protection against the four man rush of the Raiders. So far this year, Oakland has sent 4 or fewer pass rushers on 76.4% of pass plays. The strength of their defensive line allows them to do this, as they can consistently generate pressure while rushing only four (10 sacks in 3 games) - which is of course led by our old friend Rich. The reason the Jets were able to win the playoff game last year was because they were able to generate consistent pressure while using only 3 or 4 pass rushers. If the Patriots O-line can protect Brady against the Raiders standard 4 man rush, he should be able to pick apart a banged up Oakland secondary. Also of note: WR Taylor Price will be making his season debut today. He had a monster pre-season and should be in the mix to challenge The Struggling Chad Johnson (yes, that is now his official name) for the WR3 role. I'm very interested to see what kind of playing time he gets. Regardless - we have Tom, and he has a fresh haircut, so:
Advantage - Patriots

P.S. - This is always fun to watch

Oakland Offense vs. New England Defense

Running Game:
The Raiders lead the league in rushing, with 185 ypg behind solid play from a brutish offensive line. The Patriots are without Fat Albert. But they did re-sign Gerrard Warren - a move I was very happy to see considering he looked like the best defensive lineman on the team during the pre-season. Now I feel a bit better - Shaun Ellis, Vince, Gerard. That's a good start. Cycle through Andre Carter, Kyle Love and Anderson. Given Oakland's lack of talented WR's, perhaps they'll play more 2 receiver sets and allow the Pats to stay in their base defensive (and even mix in some of the old 3-4). Regardless, McFadden, fragile as he may be, is one of the most explosive running backs in the NFL.

Limiting Oakland's running game is going to be the most essential aspect of the game for the Patriots today. If the Patriots can hold Oakland to short gains on early downs, it will take away the play action pass and make Oakland's offense one dimensional. Tackling by the cornerbacks will be of added importance in order to contain McFadden's big-play-ability on runs to the outside.
Advantage - Oakland

Passing Game:
Oooh where to begin? The Patriots pass defense is giving up 377 ypg, meaning, well, they basically could be as effective even if they weren't on the field. The pass rush has been generating decent pressure, but it seems like every play they have been just a split second late. McCourty is in the midst of a brutal sophomore slump - being targeted, and burnt, early and often - but I have confidence he'll return to form shortly. The inexperience of the safeties (sans Chung) shone through in a major way last week - and bears questioning the decision making of releasing both Merriweather (nope, he stinks, right move) and Sanders this offseason.

From Oakland's perspective: Jason Campbell is playing with the same offensive coordinator as the previous season for the first time in his career. Yes, he has been in the league for 7 years. Campbell has been thriving under the new found continuity, sporting a cool 93.8 passer rating through the first three games. Granted this is based off a small sample size, and is in no doubt benefited from the strength of the running game - but I have always felt Campbell was underrated as a quarterback. The Raiders don't have much in terms of talent at the Wide Receiver position, but Rookie 5th round draft choice out of Tennessee Denarius Moore has shown plenty of potential to date (leading the team with 9 catches for 181 yards and a TD). Add in the receiving threat that McFadden brings to the table (2nd on the team with 11 catches for 84 yards and a TD) and the acquisition of TE Kevin Boss; and the Raiders passing game seems to be heading in the right direction.

Until the Patriots prove that they can at least pretend to stop the pass, this match up will go against them no matter who the opponent (well save for Tavaris Jackson and Alex Smith). So:
Advantage - Oakland

Special Teams:
As much as I like the Patriots' combination of Zoltan and Gostkowski; Shane Lechler and Sebastian Janikowski are the best pair of kickers in the league.
Advantage - Oakland

Prediction:
I'm dying to pick the Pats in a blowout in this one. Brady coming off one of the worst games of his career and facing a beat up Raiders secondary. The Raiders, running their mouths coming off a big win. In years past, I would have chalked this one up as NE 44 - Oak 7. But this team isn't quite there yet. The defense is going to take time to come together, and while I believe they will be great by the end of the year, the won't be by the end of today. The once laughable Raiders have built a solid foundation and will give the Patriots a test. In the end, the Pats offense will be too explosive allowing N.E. to hold on for the W. September football - win and move on; no matter how ugly the wins may be. With the Jets traveling to Baltimore tonight and into Gillette next weekend; Belichick won't let the possibility of a two game lead over the loud-mouth boys in green slip away against a beatable opponent this afternoon.
Patriots 30 - Raiders 20

Save Terry

2011-09-30T08:56:00.000-07:00

Do not get rid of Terry Francona. I repeat, do not get ridof Terry Francona. At least not yet.

The worst collapse in Major League history justcame to its horrible conclusion less than 36 hours ago. The wound is stillfresh. Gangrene hasn’t even set in yet. Of course, since this is Boston, a lotof idiot media members demand a scape goat. In order to fight through all thebull shit, they have to come up with sensational solutions. Whoever yells theloudest, or comes up with the stupidest shit will ultimately be the one to getthe most notoriety.

Today that sensationalist is Jackie MacMullan of ESPNBoston, formerly of the Globe. What does she use to blast through the noise?Chemistry (stick to basketball Jackie, you are one of the best in that sport where, yes, chemistry matters). Yup. Whenever a “numbers” focused organization fails, it’s always becausethey forgot that all important, and immeasurable, chemistry.

While the Rays were young, hungry and edgy, the Red Sox were arrogant, complacent and, worst of all, entitled.
They took their baseball gifts for granted, and when those gifts abandoned them, as they almost always do during a long baseball season, they were either too lazy or too cocksure to recognize what was required of them to maintain the consistency that is so vital in baseball...

People say we make too much of the value of good chemistry and camaraderie. They are wrong; it matters. When things get tough, teams with unified players step up. They rely on guys who believe in leadership and accountability -- and each other -- to turn things around.

So from May to August, when they were the best and scariestteam in baseball, were they too lazy and cocksure then? When the team started2-10 and they looked like massive failures, did they continue to play horriblybecause they had no resolve, no leadership, no accountability, no unity?

The worst part about the chemistry argument (besides any lack of proof whatsoever) is that it onlycomes out after the fact. You never see pre-season predictions highlightingchemistry. They talk about new players, returning players, off-season training,etc. You never read a report in spring training that one team is a bunch ofarrogant jerks that wouldn’t piss on each other if they were on fire. You mayhear about how well a team gets along, but if they come out of the gate poorly,I promise you that will be the one and only time you hear about thiscamaraderie.

I don’t want you to think that I think that baseball is justplayed on a computer. Positive attitudes and calm demeanors absolutely helpplayers play better. We’ve seen players go through stressful family situationsand have it negatively affect their production. But chemistry is a wholedifferent issue. Chemistry implies the strength of a bond between teammates. Tome, chemistry is really only important between pitchers and catchers and tosome extent second basemen and shortstops. Otherwise, baseball is enough of anindividual sport that it is in every player’s best interest to play theirhardest. If I was batting leadoff and I hated the guy batting second behind me,what incentive would I have to not try and get on base just to screw him over?If I don’t try my hardest it only makes me look bad.

The truth of the matter is, if my best friend pitched andacted like John Lackey for a full season I would be pretty pissed at him too.If my close knit group of college friends caused me to lose 20 games inSeptember, I don’t think I’d want to really see any of them for a long time.Hell, if I get a key question wrong in trivia, Sadie Sloe Gin can barely standto be around me for the rest of the night. None of that means we have badchemistry, it just means we are having normal human reactions to shittysituations.

The thing is, it is always easier to have great chemistrywhen you are coming from behind with low expectations. If your comeback fallsshort, well it’s ok because you gave it your all, together. But when you collapse,everybody is looking for someone to blame, mistakes start to cascade and peoplequestion themselves and those around them. Even the strongest willed peoplewill start to point fingers when the shit rolls down the slope.

Say what you want about "The Idiots" of the 2004 champion Red Sox. They were loose cannons, irreverent, wild and unorthodox. ButKevin Millar and Johnny Damon and Derek Loweand the boys were tight. They had each other's backs. When they fell behind 3-0 to the Yankees in the American League Championship Series, they vowed it wasn't over, even though nobody believed them. It was of little consequence that no one else thought it possible because the only ones who mattered -- them -- did.

I love this argument when people want to talk aboutchemistry as a reason for winning or losing. Damon, Millar and Lowe were allbig parts of the 2004 Championship team and all members of the “Idiot” crew.You know what else they were part of? The 2003 team that blew an 8^thinning lead in Game 7 of the ALCS to the Yankees. Damon and Millar were alsopart of the 2005 team that got swept in the first round of the playoffs. Wherewas the chemistry those years? Also, you know who the manager was of that 2004team that had such great chemistry? Terry Fancona.

I personally do not think managers have a lot of influenceover the success of a baseball team. I think really bad ones can definitelycost their team, but the great ones probably only add a win or two. In a game,the manager has control over lineup construction, pitching changes, and smallball strategies. With all three of these, managers do not differ too much onwhat they do and even those that do only save or cost their teams a couple runsover the course of the season. I don’t think Francoma (as X Dad calls him) is the best tacticalmanager by any means, but for the most part he doesn’t try to do too much and he lets his considerably talented teams do what they do best, unlike guys likeDusty Baker or Tony LaRussa. His failings in this part of the game arecertainly not enough to cut bait on him and I am almost positive Theo Epstein wouldagree.

The other area managers have some control over is the moodof the team. This is where Francona has stood out in his 8 year tenure. He hasalways seemed to be able to handle eachof his players as they need to be handled. He was very close with CurtSchilling and is practically best friends with Dustin Pedroia. He defendedDavid Ortiz and Mike Lowell when they were clearly slipping. He brought youngplayers like Lester, Ellsbury and Pedroia into a very veteran clubhouse. Hehandled Manny Ramirez with the skill of the head doctor at a mentalinstitution.

Until this September, nobody has ever questioned Francona’sability to handle his clubhouse. On a team with a lot of well paid players, hewas well liked and respected because of his ability to deflect criticism. Whenthings got really bad this month, it appeared as if his hold on the clubhousewas slipping. Players started speaking out, word leaked out that there wereissues, and Francona started getting extra testy with the media. All of asudden, everybody outside the organization thought he had lost his players.After 8 seasons of relative harmony, he loses everybody in one month? Please.

So the team wants to get rid of the manager for one bad month and 52 good months? Ok smart guys, who do you want to replace him? John Farrell would have been a good option but he's gone. If Dusty Baker gets fired by the Reds they could look to him, but I may burn down Fenway if they hire him. Joe Torre is sitting comfortably in the commissioners office. Bobby Valentine is the Tom Selleck of managers (only good in Japan). All of the other big names hanging around are old school managers that would not get along with Epstein at all. And I don't think bringing a young, statistically-minded manager would be a good fit for the guys on this team. Nobody is able to straddle the line of being a relatable former ballplayer and forward thinking organizational soldier better than Francona. Joe Maddon is not walking through that door, and even if he did I'm not so sure his shit would work with this group of players.

This was an historic collapse. We have never seen anythinglike it in baseball history (of course the Braves nearly matched the feat thisyear). When the sensational happens it seems like people need to reach for thesensational to explain it away. This is how the mystical chemistry gets thrownin our face. This is how curses and bad karma get brought up. This is howotherwise good citizens get forced into hiding to escape overblown criticism(Buckner and Bartman). This is how an otherwise calm, steady, level-headedorganization like the Boston Red Sox gets pressured by the panicky media to find a scape goat in the best manager in franchise history. The official announcement of his departure has not come yet. Red Sox, you still have a chance to make this right.

UPDATE
It appears (H/T to Hardballtalk) that after the meeting with Francona, the team is going to wait to make a decision. This is all I was really asking for in this post. If they take the time and decide that he is no longer a fit and they can find a better manager, then good for them, I hope they are right. My biggest issue was overreacting to an outlier of an event just 36 hours after it happened with such a huge change. The Red Sox prove again that they are smarter than the average local newspaper writer.