1. Jacoby Ellsbury, LF

Baseball Prospectus' 2010 Projection:

Age	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	WARP
26	684	107	36	8	10	62	52	83	55	13	0.297	0.358	0.428	3.1

Baseball Prospectus' Take:

"Classic case of speed and some highlight-reel dives distracting from bad routes, bad jumps, bad positioning, and a bad arm...Ellsbury's batting-average dependent production won't carry him in a corner...Unless you're Rickey Henderson or Tim Raines, stealing 70 bases is not a sustainable skill...Jim Rice thinks Ellsbury has Hall of Fame potential, which is true if you work under the assumption that the standards will continue to erode, thanks to the induction of players like Jim Rice."

X-Mark's Take:

It looks like BP is pretty down on the biggest Boston heartthrob athlete not named TFB. Usually I would completely agree with this assessment, and in a way I do. Jacoby is batting average dependent, meaning if he has a few unlucky months where some of his groundballs get swallowed up and his liners find the wrong people and he ends up with a .270 AVG, his above average OBP and solid-for-a-speed-guy SLG will start to look pretty awful.

And as fun as it is to watch Jacoby get on his mythical horse and chase down a deep fly to the triangle, he really did look confused in center last year (although I think his true talent is somewhere around average and last year was sort of an aberration).

But check this out:

Age	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	WARP
25	691	94	27	10	8	60	49	74	70	12	0.301	0.355	0.415	2.4
25	624	93	37	9	11	80	32	112	50	10	0.315	0.355	0.466	4.2

The first player season is Jacoby from last year (shit, another guy who could really use a nickname; unfortunately the obvious ones are all Native American related and my guess is that would not really fly these days).

The second player season is Carl Crawford from 2007. The same Carl Crawford who is going to get a 6 figure deal from either the Red Sox or the Yankees in 2011.

There are some differences here. Crawford had a little bit more power, Ellsbury a bit more patience. And the WARP is better for Crawford but that is mostly because of Jacoby's outlier of a defensive season. But at the end of the day, they are both pretty similar in their age 25 seasons in value.

This really gives me pause because I've always been a big Jacoby detractor. But maybe the move to left will give him a little better health and the ability to drive the ball a little more. Also, his defense should almost definitely improve although in his 81 home games it will be a little bit of a wash (of course his presence will allow Cameron to shade a bit back and towards right therefore capably manning the triangle).

What I'm getting at is that Jacoby has some potential for a real breakout this season even beyond all the stolen bases and highlight reel defensive plays. With his improving patience at the plate he should be one of the better lead off hitters this year and challenge Crawford for the top defensive left fielder.