2009, Billy Wagner, Regular Season: 15.2 innings pitched, 3 runs allowed; Post Season: 1 inning pitched 2 runs allowed
2007, Eric Gagne, Regular: 18.2 IP, 14 R; Post: 4.1 IP, 3 R
2006, Javier Lopez, Regular: 16.2 IP, 10 R
2006, Bryan Corey, Regular: 21.2 IP, 11 R
2005, Chad Bradford, Regular: 23.1 IP, 10 R; Post 1.1 IP, 0 R
2005, Mike Remlinger, Regular: 6.2 IP, 14 R
2004, Jimmy Anderson, Regular: 6 IP, 4 R
2004, Terry Adams, Regular: 27 IP, 19 R
2003, Byung-Hyun Kim, Regular: 50.1 IP, 24 R; Post: 0.2 IP 1 R
2003, Scott Sauerbeck, Regular: 16.2 IP, 14 R; Post: 0.1 IP 0 R
2003, Scott Williamson, Regular 20.1 IP, 15 R; Post: 8 IP, 1 R
The Sixth Sense (the big names, could have impact)
Heath Bell, Padres;
Joakim Soria, Royals; Kerry Wood, Cubs; Huston Street, Rockies
Bell, Soria and Street are all well established closers who
post big save totals. Wood is the former Roger Clemens clone who has
rediscovered himself in the back end of the bullpen. All would fit nicely as a
7th/8th inning guy and Street and Soria could be kept
around for next year to replace Jonathon Papelbon. Personally, I wouldn’t trade
for any of these guys, and it’s not because “they’ve never done it in Boston,
and closing in Boston takes a special type of mentality that you just don’t
have when you close games in middle America” (an approximate quote from long time
baseball writer Tony Maserotti yesterday, conveniently forgetting that ’04 World
Series hero Keith Foulke was brought over from Oakland). The reason I wouldn’t
trade for any of these guys is because I think it would take far too much to
get them relative to their worth. It seems as though most Major League GMs
agree with this assessment as there have been very few big name closers traded
mid-season lately*. It is just not worth it to give up a prospect with a decent
chance of becoming a big league regular for a guy who may give you 20 regular
season and 5 post season innings. I would not expect to see any of these guys
in Boston this year (though watch out for Bell next year, even though I’d
rather keep Pap around).
*Francisco Rodriguez
was recently traded to the Brewers. This is a completely different situation
because of the Mets’ money woes and K-Rod’s $17.5M option that vests next year
if he finishes 55 games. The Brewers gave up little to get him because the Mets
just wanted to shed most of his salary.
Unbreakable (not well known but every bit as good as the big
names, could be had for much less)
Luke Gregerson,
Padres; Mike Adams, Padres; Rafael Betancourt, Rockies; Sean Marshall, Cubs; Randy
Choate, Marlins; Grant Balfour, A’s; Brad Ziegler, A’s; Koji Uehara, Orioles
All of these pitchers are having strong seasons for
non-contending teams. Because they do not pitch the 9th inning with
a lead of 3 runs or less they become undervalued. They all sport strong strike
out to walk ratios, which is what you look for most in a reliever. They would
all be the 3rd or 4th best reliever on the Red Sox if
acquired, but like The Sixth Sense
group, their impact would be minimal (sensing a pattern yet?). Marshall and
Gregerson would probably be the most difficult to pry away from their teams;
Balfour, Choate, Uehara and Betancourt would probably be the easiest. They could
probably be acquired for a C prospect like Jeremy Hazelbaker plus a really raw,
young pitcher from one of the Sox rookie teams.
The Last Airbender in 3D (saves in baseball=3D in movies,
both are totally pointless)
Matt Capps, Twins; Leo
Nunez, Marlins; Kevin Gregg, Orioles; Brandon League, Mariners; Jonathan
Broxton, Dodgers
Capps tricked the Twins into giving up a top prospect
(Wilson Ramos, now a regular for the Nationals) because they needed a new closer
who had “done it before”. Nunez is some average reliever who was essentially
the lesser of all evils for the Fish. Gregg is the magician who has lured 4
teams now into allowing him to close despite walking 4.5 batters per 9 innings
over the last 5 years. All Star Brandon League has a 3.85 career ERA. Broxton
actually used to be a really good reliever but injuries and wildness have
submarined his career. Trading for one of these guys is like paying an extra $5
for a 3D version of a movie just because 3D (like saves) is supposed to be this
wonderful, magical thing.
What the Red Sox should do
Trade for Choate. The one
weakness in the Red Sox bullpen is a lack of a lefty specialist. In the greater
scheme of things, a guy who has only pitched 18.2 innings this year won’t make
much difference between winning and losing. However, if the Sox are up 1 in the
bottom of the 7th in Game 7 of the World Series against the Phillies
and Chase Utley and Ryan Howard come to bat, it is going to mean a lot to have
a guy who can shut down lefties. This year, Choate has held lefties to a .250
OPS. Not average. Not OBP. Not SLG. A .250 OPS.
I would heavily advise them against trading for anyone but a
lefty specialist at this point in the season. Guys from The Sixth Sense and Unbreakable
groups would certainly be upgrades over current members of the bullpen. However,
I believe the Sox can make the playoffs with what they have in the bullpen
right now and once they are in the playoffs, the relievers would mean even
less. Because games are so spread out now, Papelbon and Daniel Bard can pretty
much pitch in every close game and pitch for more than 1 inning. The team will
also have Matt Albers, Alfredo Aceves, Dan Wheeler, Andrew Miller, Tim Wakefield and maybe
Bobby Jenks if he can get straight to fill in the gaps. Unless a game goes 14
innings, the only bullpen guys who are really going to matter are Pap and Bard
and I don’t think anybody on this list could or should replace them this year.
What the Red Sox will do
Trade for Balfour. Balfour is a high strikeout pitcher who
fares equally well against lefties and righties. He has had success in the AL
East when he pitched for the Rays the last few years. He also is signed for $4M
next year and was supposed to be part of a strong A’s bullpen that would help
them reach the playoffs. Since they are last in the AL West, Billy Beane is
probably not too thrilled about paying this kind of money for a bullpen
pitcher. He should be pretty easy to pry away, and though he is not a lefty
specialist, he would give Francona more flexibility than Choate. The same
flexibility that Jenks was supposed to provide when Theo envisioned the three
closer bullpen in the offseason.
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