Nice to meet you Malcolm

That was the craziest ending I have ever seen in sports. After Jermaine "Tyree" Kearse made his impossible catch, the script seemed to have its ending. 1st and goal from the 5 with timeouts left and the strongest running back in the sport. Marshawn Lynch would have had to average 1.3 yards per carry and the Seahawks would have saved the game. His first carry went for 4 yards and all that was left was to find out kind of weird trick play the Patriots would try on the ensuing kickoff. Then we all met Malcolm Butler.

I admittedly don't follow football beyond fantasy, which means I know about 3 defensive players in the NFL at any given time. But I'm pretty sure almost nobody knew who Butler was until there were about :30 left in Super Bowl 49 (screw Roman numerals). How do I know this? The super fan behind me screaming "Oh ya" all night who probably has the number "1" and "2" tattooed on each nut kept calling him "Jimmy" Butler all night, as if the starting shooting guard for the Chicago Bulls was also a football player.

Butler is an undrafted rookie out of a Division II (shit, numerals snuck back in) school. He played only 18 snaps in the game last night and didn't start. He was kicked out of community college and sat out of football for two years. But on that one play, as everyone watching was witnessing Pete Carroll's Grady Little moment, he jumped the slant route and landed his first career interception. He now gets to take over Dave Roberts' secret penthouse in the golden dome atop the Boston State House until the next unheralded Boston hero makes a crazy play.

Other thoughts:

• You will probably hear some people say that calling a pass play wasn't that bad of a call. In general, sure. Calling a pass play on second down from the 1 yard line is not a terrible call. Too often teams screw up by playing too conservatively and they get stuffed at the line. Belichick has made his career running play action from the 1 and throwing to a linebacker or lineman posing as a receiver. But when you have the strongest running back in football, a quarterback who is too short to see over the line and is more known for his running than his passing, you run the fucking football every time. That was an awful awful play call from a guy New Englanders knew to be a terrible coach.
• Anyone questioning whether or not Brady and Belichick are the best QB/Coach duo in history can now probably find something new (and super important) to debate. Other duos have won 4 Super Bowl's together, but none have come in the salary cap era. With all the supporting cast who have shuffled in and out over the last 14 years, it is really amazing what these two have done.
• Speaking of debates, I saw this stat on Twitter: Peyton Manning has had 9 one and done playoff appearances. Tom Brady has had 9 4th quarter or OT game winning drives in the playoffs.
• The parade is going to be on Tuesday, the day after another shitty snow storm. I get that you want to celebrate immediately, but where are they going to put anyone? Half the sidewalks in the city aren't cleared properly. Cars are parked about 20 feet from the curb. I know Mayor Marty Walsh likes to party but can't you wait a couple days?
• Other Patriots players that stood out last night: Julian Edelman who seemed to catch every important third down pass to extend a drive; Vince Wilfork inserting his glorious gut into any hole the Seahawks momentarily opened; Darrell Revis and Brandon Browner shutting down the passing game on almost every drive; Dont'a Hightower making the game saving tackle before the game saving interception because Marshawn was really close to scoring on that play.

THAT'S SO RANDOM

• The above quote from Ja'mie felt appropriate for a Super Bowl related blog. In case you were wondering, Ray Rice went to Rutgers and yes it is a public school. 
• Everyone is shitting on the Nationwide Dead Boy commercial. Why? That was the funniest commercial in Super Bowl history. It was so inappropriate, out of place and ridiculous that people are going to remember it forever. That's what brand marketing is, basically, being memorable. Best Tweet related to the commercial: (sung to the Nationwide theme) Nationwide your kid has died!
• The main theme of the Super Bowl commercials was "sad Dad". Nothing like a bunch of roided up monsters smashing each other to make you really reflect on how much you love your son. Now listen to a terrible cover of an American classic song and buy a pickup truck. DO IT FOR YOUR SON!!!
• In case anyone thinks the DreamingWithJeff.com thing is a joke, go to the site. I'll wait. Did you just have the best nap of your life? You are welcome.
• I'm sure this will make me sound insensitive, but I thought the "Throw Like a Girl" commercial was awful. I agree with the idea of the commercial. It's time to stop using that phrase. It's insensitive and moronic. But...if you want to erase that phrase from the mouths of asshole men, why would you get girls that live up to the stereotype? None of those girls could run, throw or fight well. Why wouldn't you hire Jackie Joyner Kersey, Jennie Finch and Ronda Rousey? Oh, that noise you are hearing right now is Sarah slapping me. I guess I shouldn't have touched this one.
• TV show recommendation for the week: The Americans. This is a show, now in its third season, about Soviet spies living in America pretending to be Americans in the 80s. It's probably the best drama on TV right now. It's intense but not over the top. The fight scenes are great and the disguise wigs are even better. It stars a grown up Keri Russell from Felicity and you see her butt a few times, much to Mike Feeney's delight. The show is so good that I am absolutely rooting for the USSR to win the Cold War thus negating my entire existence. 
• So happy the football season is finally over. Pitchers and catchers report in less than 3 weeks and I couldn't be happier.
• Finally, Missy Elliott stole the halftime show from Katy Perry, a lion, two sharks and a shooting star. I wonder if most youngsters these days really know much about Missy. She was at the height of the rap game for a few years. Her style, created with Timbaland, who people probably now know as Justin Timberlake's buddy, was completely unique at the time. To this day there is really nobody like her and every time I hear one of her songs it feels new. Here is "Get Your Freak On"

And a bonus video: Leslie Mann singing the same song in 40 Year Old Virgin

Why the Patriots will win the Super Bowl, Game 9 vs. the Jets and some other ramblings

A few weeks back I wrote that the upcoming stretch of games (Pitt through Philly) would be the stretch that tells us what we have for a Patriots team and what we can expect the rest of the season. Well so far they have failed that test pretty handily. After one of the worst performances in recent Patriots memory against the Steelers; the Patriots followed up by ending their 20 game home winning streak against the hated New York football Giants. While many Pats fans are all gloom & doom, doubting if the team will make the playoffs and even questioning if Belichick has “lost his touch” (blasphemy) – I see things a bit differently. While the Pats may have last the past two games, I saw some promising signs.

In the Pittsburgh game – the Pats came out and let the Steelers march down the field on the opening drive as if they wanted them to score and never recovered. Regardless – as poorly as they played, on the road against one of the best teams in the AFC – they still had a chance to win the game on the last possession of the fourth quarter even after the worlds’ worst attempt at an onside kick. Continue on to last week’s frustrating loss against NYG – New England had four turnovers, didn’t look good in general and still managed to be one defensive stop away from pulling off a win against another top tier NFL team. It’s not often that a team can turn the ball over four times in a game and still be within 90 seconds of getting a W. The last drive by the Giants, as depressing as it was, was more of a function of too many simultaneous injuries at key positions to get that do-or-die stop. Chung went out with an ankle injury only to be replaced by Sergio Brown who picked up that atrocious pass interference penalty on the goalline to set up the Giants winning score. Couple that with the loss of both Brandon Spikes and Gary Guyton leading to career special teams ace Tracy White being thrust into action at LB on the most pivotal drive of the game. While White may be an excellent special teams player, a good Linebacker he is not. White was in coverage on both catches by Giants TE Jake Ballard (the long catch down the seam on the crucial 3^rd down, and the TD pass to end the game).

As frustrating to watch as the two losses may have been here is what I saw: I saw a team that can play far below their ability level against two of the better teams in the NFL, stand little to no chance of winning, but yet had the mental toughness to battle through their mistakes and stay competitive for all 60 minutes and still manage to give themselves a chance to win games that they didn’t deserve to. And while it’s easy to be discouraged at the recent results, the mental toughness and competitiveness of the team has me very optimistic for the Patriots in the 2^nd half of the 2011 season.

Many of the complaints you hear about this team is how bad their defense is, and critics are quick to point to New England’s last ranked Pass Defense as the main reason they can’t win the Super Bowl. If you were to ask anyone that follows football closely who they think the current Super Bowl favorites are; the majority of responses would be the Green Bay Packers – and justifiably so. However, if you were to ask these same fans what team ranks 31^st in pass defense; I doubt very few would correctly guess the same Green Bay Packers. New England gives up just over 17 yards passing per game more than the undisputed Super Bowl favorite Packers.

If you were to ask Bill Belichick what the most important stat in football is, he has frequently been quoted saying “Points”. In that regard, Green Bay and New England rank 15^th & 16^th respectively in opponents Red Zone scoring percentage, the most telling stat for Belichick’s ever important “Points”. So I ask you, why are the Packers viewed as such stronger Super Bowl contenders than New England? Obviously Green Bay’s undefeated record goes a long way to explaining this, and enforces the old adage “Winning is the best Band-Aid”; but it also will hopefully help some of you Pats fans ready to jump off the ledge take a step back and realize things aren’t quite as bad as they seem.

After the next 3 weeks (at NYJ, vs. KC & at Phil), the Patriots have one of the easiest schedules for the remainder of the season. As it stands, NE, NYJ and Buffalo stand tied atop the AFC East at the halfway mark of the season – essentially meaning these next 8 games are a new season in themselves.

Now in terms of today’s ever important game against the New York Foot-fetish Jets; I don’t know where to begin. After getting dominated in Foxboro just over a month ago, the Jets have turned their season around- reeling off three straight wins and fighting back to the top of the AFC East. Of course these 3 wins have come against the hapless Dolphins, San Diego (the game where Phillip Rivers decided to throw the ball away on 4^th down with no time left), and the rapidly fading Buffalo Bills. The Jets have gotten back to re-establishing their trademark running game; against teams that rank 14^th. 25^th and 19^th respectively in run Defense. The Patriots on the other hand rank 9^th on run D and while I would normally feel good about this match-up, the absence of Brandon Spikes tonight has me very worried. Spikes’ top replacement at ILB is Gary Guyton; and if you’ve read anything on SBS in the past you know just have little faith I have in Guyton’s run stopping abilities. Also, not to be lost in the shuffle is this weeks (somewhat ) surprising release of Fat Albert Haynesworth, who clearly is an asset in the run stopping department. After reading comments from Haynesworth over the past week, it seems to be that he was getting frustrated at lack of playing time and the differences in the Patriots version of the 4-3 defense as opposed to the 4-3 he thrived in his time in Tennessee. While Fat Albert didn’t produce the large sack numbers that some expected of him when he was acquired by the Patriots, he had some strong contributions (when not limited by injuries) and opened up many opportunities for his fellow d-linemen.

Along with the concerns with the Pats usually stout run D, there is obviously plenty to worry about with the often ridiculed pass D. Safety Josh Barrett was placed on IR this past week, leaving an already thin group even further decimated. If Chung is at all limited or can’t go due to his ankle injury, this is an area of major concern, and should provide plenty of opportunity for the talented but underutilized Dustin Keller. The Patriots D made some significant progress last week against the Giants (save for that last TD drive), limiting the Giants on 3^rd down conversions and fixing many of the errors that plagued them in Pittsburgh. The injuries have me plenty worried about our ability to stop the Jets and JV Sanchez, but hopefully they can put up enough resistance to give Brady and Co. a chance.

I'll need to write a dissertation on the offense later this week, but I think they'll utilize the running game that helped them thrive in the first match up between the rivals. Of course the Welker/Revis match up is on of the more entertaining ones you can watch as it is a top notch battle of of two of the best at their positions playing at the highest level in a pivotal game. If the Pat's D can fend off the Jets running game, the Patriots should be able to pull of a W in a hostile environment in the slums of North Jersey; but don't get me wrong - the injuries have me very concerned. Win or lose, I'll still remain in high hopes for the rest of the Patriots 2011 season and think they have all the pieces to win the Super Bowl and will do just that.

As for tonight - Patriots 24 - Jets 20

Game 8 vs. The stupid Giants

Midterm week for school and close week at work means I had no time to put together anything worthy of a SBS post. Instead I'll leave a few thoughts for today's game:

1.) I am in no way prepared to see all of the obligatory flashback clips that FOX will show today from "the game that shall not be mentioned". I may have to start drinking now to deal with it.

2.) The Giants will be without Ahmad Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks and center David Baas. While Bradshaw and Nicks are much bigger names, Baas' absence may be most important. We've covered the importance of the center position in this space before, but the center is essentially the QB of the offensive line. Will Baas' absence lead to the Pats finally filling up the stat sheet with some sacks? No just QB pressures but some good old fashioned sacks? I think so.

Don't underrate the absence of Bradshaw either. Brandon Jacobs may be a well known name amongst fans, but the difference in skill between he and Bradshaw is about the same as downgrading from Leigh Bodden to Antwaun Molden. Oh wait; we saw how well that worked last week. Bradshaw is a far superior football player.

Happy Halloween: Game 7 vs. Pittsburgh

Every off-season, when the schedule is released, there is a stretch of games that stands out and you know after those games is when you will learn the true identity of the team. Last year it was the Pittsburgh through Jets Act 2 when the Patriots proved they were the class of the AFC (lets choose to ignore the playoffs for this exercise). For 2011, these next three - five games are that stretch. We should have a pretty clear picture after the following: at Pittsburgh, home for the Giants at the Jets; followed by a home game against the resurgent Chiefs and then on the road in Philadelphia. If the Patriots can go 4-1 over this stretch, they should be well positioned for the top seed in the AFC. It starts this weekend against a familiar foe, the one organization in the NFL that can come close to comparing to New England's resume over the past decade (although not really that close). Fresh off a bye week and with the return to health of a number of injured players, the Pats are in prime position to face a recently hot Steelers team coming back from a tough start to the 2011 season. Of course the Steelers are 0-2 when facing teams with winning records; their 5 wins coming against opponents that are a stellar 7-24 combined. The last time the Pats played in Pittsburgh on Halloween (in 2004) was also their last loss to the Steelers. Lets hope this time around goes a bit better.

Riding the RomoCoaster: Game 6 vs. Dallas

Ahhhhh; there is not much better than beating up on the Jets. After a weeks worth of blather from Rex about how the Jets would get back to their "ground-and-pound" approach, the Pats took that script and shoved it right down Rex's fat throat - out-rushing the Jets 152 to 97. Now the question becomes: how will the Pats respond coming off an emotional win (with their bye week on the horizon); facing a more formidable than you think Cowboys team coming off their bye week.

The two faced 'Boys stand at 2-2, but could very easily be 4-0. Or 0-4 (their game against Washington was one of the ugliest games I've ever watched). As the Romocoaster goes, so go the Cowboys (I've seen this clip probably 10 times now on SpotsCenter and have literally no idea what they say - it's too much fun to watch Marcellus Wallace's face). As much fun as it was beating up on Rex last week, the Pats face his equally talented, less obnoxious brother Rob this week. The last time the Pats didn't score 30+ points in a game was in their miserable performance against Cleveland last year. Cleveland's Defensive Coordinator last season? Rob Ryan. The Browns were also coming off a bye last year when they beat the Patriots, and I think it's safe to say that the Ryan brothers shared some ideas of how to stop the unstoppable Patriots offense.

Quick Hit thoughts for Game 5 vs. New York Jets

I'm hungover, recovering from a wedding, have a cold and little to no interest in writing. But it's the Jets, so I have to get some thoughts out there.

• No Jerod Mayo. Waaaaahh. Replacing Mayo with Gary Guyton is like going from dating Anna Kournikova to Serena Williams.
  
• As of now it looks like Hernandez, Haynesworth and Chung will all be playing today. Obviously Chung is the most important of these because we have nothing else even resembling another safety; but boy is it nice to have Hernandez back. He adds such another dimension to the offense, and after the balanced rushing attack the Pats displayed last week, his return should get them back to good old unstoppable form.
• Should be interesting to see how the Jets match up with the Patriots offense. It seems natural to assume that they'll move Revis inside to cover Welker (aka the current best receiver in the NFL), however, they like to keep Revis outside so this marquee match-up may be one we don't get to see much of.
  
• Antonio Cromartie is one of the single most over rated players in the NFL. Please watch how many defensive holding penalties he gets away with today and how many tackles he shies away from. Of all the loathsome players on the Jets, I think I hate him the most. Second most is Cheddar Burress. God do I hate him too. Then Eric Smith and Sanchez.
  
• Will rookie Stevan Ridley continue to see an increase in his carries after his solid week last week, or will Benny be the featured back? Regardless who it is, the Pats should be focusing on another balanced offensive attack today (30 rushes/30 passes last week) considering the Jets are giving up over 180 yards per game on the ground - not to mention their league leading pass D.
• The health of NYJ Center Nick Mangold will be one of the key to the game. Mangold is by far and away the best Center in the NFL, and if he misses the game that is a huge advantage to the Pats. Take a nice day off Nick, you deserve it.
• Sanchez has looked like a JV QB so far this season. If anyone can turn that around, it's the Patriots pass defense - so today will be a good test for both.
• Due to Sanchez's struggles, Rex has been talking about getting back to their "ground and pound" approach, so the Pat's run D will have to set the tone today.
• Lets hope Shaun Ellis took some notes from Richard Seymour last week on how not to perform when facing your old team for the first time.
• If Woodhead is out, could it be time for Shane Vareen to make an appearance in the 3rd down back role?
• The pass rush has been alllllmost getting there for a few weeks now. Today would be a great time for them to close the gap.
• Prediction: New England 28 - New York 20
  

NFL First Quarter Report

Bill Belichick often say it takes about 4 weeks to know what kind of team you have (6 may be more accurate this year given the lockout, but whatever) - so on that note, here are some random NFL thoughts after the first quarter of the season.




* The biggest story of the season to date has to be the 4-0 Detroit Lions. The Lions flashed their potential in a major way against N.E. in the pre-season; but that was only preseason. While I figured they would be a good team, I ultimately thought they were a year away from making the playoffs (I picked them to go 8-8 in an article that never got posted). Calvin Johnson has looked downright unstoppable and could give Randy a run for his money for the TD record. What's been most impressive is the lack of quit in these young pups (down by 24 at Dallas & 20 vs. Minny). With quite a few winnable games remaining on their schedule (Chicago twice, Minny, Denver, Carolina & Oakland, among others); the Lions have a legitimate shot at the playoff and should be fun to watch for the rest of the season.

Hello old friend; it's really scary to see you once again - Game 4 at Oakland

The following is from one of my first SBS posts; a draft preview article discussing the need to draft a DE; and it seems worth repeating given the circumstances:

"The date was September 6^th, 2009- the Sunday of Labor Day weekend. I was sitting at a diner in Hyannis with a group of friends recounting ridiculous stories of the past weekend (people falling off docks and into the harbor for a late night swim, girls kicking through glass doors to get into the hotel, etc) when my phone rang. It was Papa O. I assumed it was the standard call to make sure I was still alive after a weekend adventure with the idiots I call my friends. Nope.

'Did you hear the Pats traded Seymour' he asked. Whaaaaaaa? I shared the news with the table and started getting chewed out as if I was the one who traded him. So much for don’t shoot the messenger. How could they trade Big Rich? One of the unquestioned leaders of the team; a 5 time Pro Bowl selection (and 3x 1^st team All-Pro); was gone? You know it’s bad when even the girls at the table are upset that a Defensive End was traded. I can’t even think of the male equivalent to that – being upset over what dress Jessica Biel wore to the Oscars? Outraged at which golddigger got voted off of The Bachelor? I don’t know, think of something funny and laugh."

This will be the first meeting between Big Rich and the Pats since the trade. While I love Seymour and everything he did for the Pats (and for punching Big Ben in the face; hence the picture above), I hope he remembers how much he enjoyed his years here and takes it easy on his old team. Stay away from Tom, Mr. Seymour. Please.

After a putrid week of sports throughout Boston, can the Pats put a historical loss behind them and move on against an up-and-coming Raiders team coming off a big win against the Jets? The secondary is thin once again (Bodden & Ras-I are out while Chung is coming back from surgery on his thumb), and the Raiders are leading the NFL in rushing. The freaks of the Black Hole celebrate Halloween year round, making Oakland a tough place to play. I enjoyed this quote from G Brian Waters (who traveled to Oakland many a time during his days with KC) about the weirdest thing he ever saw from the Black Hole: "I’ll say this, that's the first time I ever saw an old lady in a wheelchair shooting me the bird with both fingers. That’s crazy right there." So how will Brady and the Pats respond to the Raiders and their ill-mannered old women? Lets take a look at some key match ups.


New England Offense vs. Oakland Defense

Running Game:
While all the talk this week will be about the Raiders and their league leading Rushing attack, lets take a quick look at the other side of the ball. For all the success Oakland has had running the ball, they've been equally as bad at stopping the run. As talented as the Raiders D-line may be, opponents are averaging a league leading 5.8 yards per carry on the year. Raiders linebacker Rolando McClain made headlines this week by calling the Pats' a finesse team.The Patriots have a penchant for making anyone who runs their mouth eat their words (see ex-Steelers safety Anthony Smith), so perhaps the Pat's will make Mr. McClain realize that giving up 5.8ypc is just about as finesse as it gets. The Patriots struggled a bit at times to run the ball last week, but I see a focused effort on establishing the ground game to slow down the Raiders pass rush. Rookie Stevan Ridley was effective last week, so look for him to get a few more chances this week.
Advantage - Patriots

Passing Game:
As big of a disaster as last week was, consider this for a second: Tom Brady threw as many interceptions in one game last week, as he did in all 16 games in 2010 (45 attempts last week compared to 492 in 2010). While Brady's ridiculous stats in 2010 were an anomaly, so to was the game vs. Buffalo (plus, only one of those picks was his fault - well 1.5 if you want to give some of the blame on the one to Chad Johnson, which would be fair - but I hate Chad so I'm calling it one). Point being - last week is not going to happen again.

Now, onto this week. As banged up as the Pats' secondary may be, it's not all sunshine and rainbows in the Raiders defensive backfield. After losing their best player to free agency (Nnamdi Asomugha), the injury bug has hit Oakland's D-backs over the past couple weeks. As Tedy Bruschi points out:

"Free safety Michael Huff had a concussion. Left cornerback Chris Johnson injured his hamstring. So you have to monitor those two situations this week. Overall, this is a defense that has given it up against the pass -- 264 yards to Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 2, and 369 to Mark Sanchez last week. I'm sure Tom Brady sees that, and if he gets time, I think he'll like what he sees in terms of matchups."

The key here today will be how the offensive line can hold up in pass protection against the four man rush of the Raiders. So far this year, Oakland has sent 4 or fewer pass rushers on 76.4% of pass plays. The strength of their defensive line allows them to do this, as they can consistently generate pressure while rushing only four (10 sacks in 3 games) - which is of course led by our old friend Rich. The reason the Jets were able to win the playoff game last year was because they were able to generate consistent pressure while using only 3 or 4 pass rushers. If the Patriots O-line can protect Brady against the Raiders standard 4 man rush, he should be able to pick apart a banged up Oakland secondary. Also of note: WR Taylor Price will be making his season debut today. He had a monster pre-season and should be in the mix to challenge The Struggling Chad Johnson (yes, that is now his official name) for the WR3 role. I'm very interested to see what kind of playing time he gets. Regardless - we have Tom, and he has a fresh haircut, so:
Advantage - Patriots

P.S. - This is always fun to watch

Oakland Offense vs. New England Defense

Running Game:
The Raiders lead the league in rushing, with 185 ypg behind solid play from a brutish offensive line. The Patriots are without Fat Albert. But they did re-sign Gerrard Warren - a move I was very happy to see considering he looked like the best defensive lineman on the team during the pre-season. Now I feel a bit better - Shaun Ellis, Vince, Gerard. That's a good start. Cycle through Andre Carter, Kyle Love and Anderson. Given Oakland's lack of talented WR's, perhaps they'll play more 2 receiver sets and allow the Pats to stay in their base defensive (and even mix in some of the old 3-4). Regardless, McFadden, fragile as he may be, is one of the most explosive running backs in the NFL.

Limiting Oakland's running game is going to be the most essential aspect of the game for the Patriots today. If the Patriots can hold Oakland to short gains on early downs, it will take away the play action pass and make Oakland's offense one dimensional. Tackling by the cornerbacks will be of added importance in order to contain McFadden's big-play-ability on runs to the outside.
Advantage - Oakland

Passing Game:
Oooh where to begin? The Patriots pass defense is giving up 377 ypg, meaning, well, they basically could be as effective even if they weren't on the field. The pass rush has been generating decent pressure, but it seems like every play they have been just a split second late. McCourty is in the midst of a brutal sophomore slump - being targeted, and burnt, early and often - but I have confidence he'll return to form shortly. The inexperience of the safeties (sans Chung) shone through in a major way last week - and bears questioning the decision making of releasing both Merriweather (nope, he stinks, right move) and Sanders this offseason.

From Oakland's perspective: Jason Campbell is playing with the same offensive coordinator as the previous season for the first time in his career. Yes, he has been in the league for 7 years. Campbell has been thriving under the new found continuity, sporting a cool 93.8 passer rating through the first three games. Granted this is based off a small sample size, and is in no doubt benefited from the strength of the running game - but I have always felt Campbell was underrated as a quarterback. The Raiders don't have much in terms of talent at the Wide Receiver position, but Rookie 5th round draft choice out of Tennessee Denarius Moore has shown plenty of potential to date (leading the team with 9 catches for 181 yards and a TD). Add in the receiving threat that McFadden brings to the table (2nd on the team with 11 catches for 84 yards and a TD) and the acquisition of TE Kevin Boss; and the Raiders passing game seems to be heading in the right direction.

Until the Patriots prove that they can at least pretend to stop the pass, this match up will go against them no matter who the opponent (well save for Tavaris Jackson and Alex Smith). So:
Advantage - Oakland

Special Teams:
As much as I like the Patriots' combination of Zoltan and Gostkowski; Shane Lechler and Sebastian Janikowski are the best pair of kickers in the league.
Advantage - Oakland

Prediction:
I'm dying to pick the Pats in a blowout in this one. Brady coming off one of the worst games of his career and facing a beat up Raiders secondary. The Raiders, running their mouths coming off a big win. In years past, I would have chalked this one up as NE 44 - Oak 7. But this team isn't quite there yet. The defense is going to take time to come together, and while I believe they will be great by the end of the year, the won't be by the end of today. The once laughable Raiders have built a solid foundation and will give the Patriots a test. In the end, the Pats offense will be too explosive allowing N.E. to hold on for the W. September football - win and move on; no matter how ugly the wins may be. With the Jets traveling to Baltimore tonight and into Gillette next weekend; Belichick won't let the possibility of a two game lead over the loud-mouth boys in green slip away against a beatable opponent this afternoon.
Patriots 30 - Raiders 20

The Streak Rolls On: Game 3 at Buffalo

A very lazily prepared preview for today's game, a surprising battle for first place in the AFC East vs. little brother Buffalo

New England Offense vs. Buffalo Defense

Running Game:
Despite having one of the most underrated interior D-lineman in the league in NT Kyle Williams, Buffalo's run D is anemic at best. The Pats gained over 200 yards on the ground in both games last year against the Bills, and will feature the run game with Aaron Hernandez missing the game today. Watch Williams vs. Connolly as a great test of how Connolly will fair at Center for the rest of the season; and I'm interested in seeing what kind of impact rookie Marcell Dareus will have.
Advantage - Patriots

And So It Begins: Game 1 at Miami

A breakdown of key match-ups, players to watch and various ramblings on tonight's season opener at Miami

New England Offense vs. Miami Defense

Running Game:
The Dolphins have one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL. The front seven features two 2010 Pro Bowlers (Cameron Wake and Randy Starks), top tier MLB Karlos Dansby and an offensive line eating Nose Tackle in Paul Soliai. Given the Pats health concerns on the offensive line as well as newly acquired RG Brian Waters being thrust into action, this one goes:
Advantage - Dolphins.

What to Watch For: Preseason Game 2 vs. Tampa Bay

1.) Return of the Dead Eye: After sitting out Preseason Game 1, Brady will be getting the start tonight. All reports out of training camp are that he looks great; but how will the foot hold up in live action? With Matt Light unlikely to play, Nate Solder quickly becomes the most important player on the field. Solder played well last week, but can he protect the most valuable man in football against an aggressive Tampa D? God do I hope so.

Some quick thoughts on last nights 47-12 drubbing of Jacksonville

Positives:

• Taylor Price: The second year receiver went a long way to securing a roster spot last night. He had 5 catches for 105 yards and a ridiculous TD Catch. Price looked fast on some catch and runs down sideline, and showed ability to go over the middle. Some poor decisions on punt returns, and alligator arming a would be pick (negated by an unnecessary roughness penalty) we minor blemishes on an otherwise impressive night. 

What to Watch For: Preseason Game 1 vs. Jacksonville

Football is finally back and so am I. There is plenty to catch up on, as the Pats have made some big splashes since the lockout ended, and I'll post about those in due time. Xmark emailed me 2 weeks ago to put up a post about the acquisitions, but I was on a 2 week vacation; and faced with the decision between sitting on the beach or sitting in front of my laptop my was no choice at all. If it makes you feel any better, I was lobster red with a goof burn for a few days after, as I decided I had as much interest in sunscreen as I did writing.

Yes, I'm aware that most people couldn't care less about preseason football. Yes, I'm aware the game will be very sloppy and probably pretty boring. That's ok, because I'll still be watching. This is where position battles and roster spots are won; breakout players are spotted and we get to see cheerleaders for the first time this year. For those of you who care to watch here's a quick list of the top things you should pay attention to:

2011 NFL Draft: 2nd & 3rd Round Thoughts

What to do, what to do? If you’re Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots, the answer is, well, just about anything you want. Currently the Pats have 5 picks tonight. I say currently because it is all but assured that this will change. In Round 2 they have #’s 1 (33 overall), 24 (56), and 28 (60). In Round 3, its #’s 10 (74) and 28 (92). Talk about options. The first round went just about perfectly to leave their first pick, #33, with maximum value. The early run on QB’s last night left on two top signal callers (Dalton & Mallett) with a number of QB needy teams who will need to move up if they want to grab one. Teams potentially looking to trade up for a QB – Cincy, Cleveland, Arizona, San Fran, Washington and Oakland. With QB needy Buffalo sitting at #34, this is ideal for the Pats. Apparently Cincy even tried to trade up to #32 with Green Bay to take Dalton last night. There are also several highly rated players (Bowers, Reed) still available for one reason or another, that New England could either select, or find other trade partners for. Of the 5 picks tonight, I would guess that four players are chosen, with one pick being moved into next year.

While last night may have left many fans disappointed, it addressed one major area of need – Offensive Tackle. Tonight’s selections should address the remaining positions – OLB, DE, RB and OG. I was planning on putting together a list of players I thought the Pats would select until I came across ESPN’s Mike Reiss’s 2^nd Round Mock Draft. He hit the three players I was targeting for the Patriots to select:

#33 - Jabaal Sheard (OLB, Pitt): I covered him earlier this week and still think he’s the right fit for an OLB in the Pats 3-4. He has the ability to move to DE in sub-packages. While Reiss is projecting him at #33, I foresee a trade with one of the QB needy teams mentioned above looking to leap-frog Buffalo and Cincy to grab Dalton. My best guess is Arizona (6^th pick of 2^nd round) or Washington (9^th).

#56 - Allen Bailey (DE, Miami): Also covered here this week. Earlier than I projected, but since the depth at DE is gone, it’s the right idea to take him here.

#60 - Mikel Leshoure (RB, Illinois): Reiss, Kiper and McShay all project the Pats taking Leshoure here, and while I agree; that probably means it won’t happen. He’s a better fit for the Pats than Ingram, given his superior pass blocking ability (meaning he can play all 3 downs), is a one-cut type runner that the Pats love (like Benny) and bigger than Ingram.

Here are some thoughts on other names of note that are options tonight:

Da’Quan Bowers (DE, Clemson)– Bowers was initially projected to go in the top 10, but a recent knee injury has scared teams away from him. Somewhat reminds me of Sergio Kindle last year. He’s an immensely talented player, and someone will take the injury risk for his tremendous upside early in Round 2. I don’t see that team being the Patriots. Shocking I know. But Bowers (6’3”, 280lbs) is a bit small to play DE in the Pats 3-4, and doesn’t project well at OLB. Plus knee injuries are something they tend to shy away from. Tempting, but I don’t see it.

Brooks Reed (DE/OLB, Arizona) – Reed was discussed here earlier this week, and is now in the range where he could be worth the pick. Mel Kiper Jr. now has the Pats taking him with #33, but the more I read about him, the less I’m sold. Jerry Thornton’s take (linked yesterday) sums it up pretty well.

Akeem Ayers (OLB, UCLA) – Also covered here earlier this week, but I still think he’s too small.

Justin Houston – Most likely pick if they don’t go with Sheard.

Dream scenario trade that is based off of absolutely nothing and probably extremely unrealistic, but I figured it would be fun to try:

New England to Washington:

#33 overall pick (1^st pick, Round 2)

#74 overall pick (10^th pick, Round 3)

#125 overall pick (28^th pick, Round 4)

Washington to New England:

#41 overall pick (9^th pick, Round 2)

#49 overall pick (17^th pick, Round 2)

Washington gets Dalton and picks up 3^rd and 4^th round picks for this year (of which they have none). New England picks up and extra 2^nd Round pick, giving them 4 for this year. The Pats use #41 and still get Sheard, the player they want. After that, they use two of the other picks on the players mentioned above, and trade another into a 2012 1^st Round pick, giving them three 2012 1^st Round picks. Like I said, unrealistic, but man would that be sweet.

All I know is that it should be an awfully exciting night from a Patriots perspective. The only problem is that Roger Goodell decided it would be a good idea to have the draft on a Friday night. Apparently he doesn’t go out. But I do; so hopefully there is a more dedicated writer out there than I so I can catch up on all of Belichick’s moves in the morning.

2011 NFL Draft: 1st Round Reaction

For Patriots fans, last nights’ draft went as they always do. Most enter with great expectations, hoping for sexy names at flashy positions. This year, with two first round picks, expectations were even more inflated than normal. A top-tier pass rusher? Heisman winner Mark Ingram? Needless to say, the first round ended in typical Patriots fashion. To the dismay of many, there was no Clay Matthews 2.0, no big names, and the Patriots even traded away the pick that was used to select the highly coveted Ingram. What we are left with – a mountain of a left tackle to protect Brady’s blind side; an extra 1^st round pick for next year, and an army of frustrated fans who will never learn. After the Solder pick was announced, the texts began to fly in – “What the hell???”, “Are you f’in kidding?”, “Who?”, etc.. Apparently my friends don’t read Sexy Boston Sports frequently enough. After trying to justify the pick, one of my friends sent the following: “You are the biggest Patriots apologist on Earth”. While that may be true, it is hard to argue with the selection of a monster of a LT to add to and Offensive Line in desperate need of a youth movement. In regards to Ingram, he is just not the type of player the Pats will select. They only choose player in the first round who they will get maximum production out of. Talented as he may be, Ingram lacks the pass protection abilities to play on 3^rd downs, and the team cannot justify the expensive cap figure that a first round RB commands. I have no doubt that Ingram will be a solid Pro, but this team has always run the ball very effectively without big name backs; and they will continue to in the future thanks to the big guys up front like Solder.

The only disappointing aspect of the night for me came after the trade with New Orleans. Once I heard the details of the trade (#28 for #56 and a 2012 #1 – an absolutely awesome deal) - and looked at the remaining players on the board; I was ecstatic. Only 5 picks until the Pats were back on the clock, and both Mo Wilkerson and Cameron Heyward were still on the board. Could we possibly get either of the two best DE’s for our system at #33 overall. Mind you, both of these guys were projected to go in the Top 20. A top tier tackle at #17, one of the best DE’s, plus the haul from the New Orleans trade? Too good to be true. Then the Jets and Steelers had to go be their typical D-bag selves and mess everything up. This left a bit of a sour taste after an otherwise exciting night. That said, there is still plenty of talent available, and tonight will tell the story of the 2011 Draft for the Patriots. Check back later for predictions on Rounds 2 & 3.

A few random thoughts from Round 1 worth mentioning:

- I absolutely LOVED the boo’s Goodell was greeted with last night. Go away Roger.

- Cam Newton is not and will never be a franchise QB. I have no idea why Carolina would take him there. Why guarantee a guy $50+ million who MIGHT be good? Give a sure thing like Patrick Peterson or Von Miller any day.

- By far the most shocking moment of the night to me was the Falcons trading up to select Julio Jones. No that they did it, but how much they gave up. 2011 1^st, 2^nd & 4^th round picks plus 2012 1^st and 4^th? Cleveland couldn’t have said yes fast enough. GM Thomas Dimitroff started with the Patriots, and that is about as un-Patriot like a move as you could make. Especially for a guy who’s first 3 minutes of highlights ESPN showed were him dropping wide-open passes (he’ll be nasty, but still). I guess they must have been blown away by the results from his new Under Armour Shirt.

- How about the two newly formed scariest young DL combos in a long time: Houston DE’s Mario Williams and JJ Watt and Detroit DT’s Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley. Wow.

Hastily Put Together Last Minute Draft Thoughts

I wanted to put together previews for all positions, but just didn’t have enough time so here are some quick thoughts for tonight:

- First and foremost be ready for the Pats to trade. A lot. Just read this. There is a negative percent chance that they’ll make both picks in their assigned spots. I expect the Pats to only make one pick tonight, moving the other one either into a combo of picks in the later rounds, next years draft, or most likely – both. When a player you’re hoping for starts to fall down the draft and the Pats are about to be on the clock – don’t get excited and think they’ll pick him. They won’t. They’ll trade back. Be like a Buddhist Monk, just wait and wait and wait some more.

- Whenever the Patriots make a pick tonight, it will be a Defensive Player. If they somehow make two, the other will be an offensive lineman.

- I’ve been hearing a lot of talk about the Pats possibly taking Ingram or Locker. That’s just silly. C’mon people. Ingram wasn’t even the best RB on his own team last year, and why would they waste a pick on a guy who (hopefully) wouldn’t play for 5+ years in Locker. Also, Lockers’ biggest knock is accuracy – only the 2^nd most important trait the Pats look for in their QB’s.

- The “We Want Football!!” chants Goodell came out to were awesome. I hope he gets booed all night.

- The earlier the run on QB’s the better. It only gives more value to the picks that Belichick will inevitably be trading.

- Read the following links for position projections. They’re done by Jerry Thornton of Barstool Sports, and he does an excellent job. He highlights many of the players I planned on talking about, and his intro in the “Guards” preview is spot on:

o Tackles

o Guards

o D-Backs

o Running Backs

- If the Pats were to pick in their two spots (which won’t happen), I would say OT Nate Solder at #17 and DE Cameron Heyward at #28.

- Don’t get frustrated. Remember that you are watching one of the all time greats at working the draft. Enjoy it.

2011 NFL Draft Preview: Outside Linebackers

Outside Linebackers

The Patriots need a pass rusher. I could toss out a whole bunch of stats from the past few years, I could quote hundreds of analysts discussing the topic, or point out examples from specific games last year; but why bother. The Patriots need a pass rusher, it’s as simple as that.

Position need:

Very high

Prototype:

6’2” – 6’4”, 255-270lbs., freakishly athletic. Way too fast and agile for their size; these guys need to do it all rush the passer, drop into coverage, set the edge in the run game. Versatility is essential for an OLB in the Pats system. OLB’s must be able to do everything mentioned above when in the Base 3-4, and be capable of playing Rush DE when the defense switches to sub-packages in passing situations. Given how pass happy the NFL has become, the Patriots spent nearly as much time in sub-packages last year as they did in their base D. Look for someone who has experience dropping into underneath zone coverage at the college level.

Draft Depth:

Lots of quality pass rushing DE’s, but most are better fit for the 4-3 and don’t have the versatility required for the Pats system. Most of the players that fit the prototype are rated as 2^nd-3^rd round players.

Guys likely to be gone:

Von Miller (A&M), Robert Quinn (UNC)

Fits but not the pick:

Brooks Reed (Arizona)- 6’2”, 263lbs. A guy with a non-stop motor and the work ethic that fits the Pats mold. A team captain, and has a huge passion for the game. Noted as one of the better pass rushers in the draft, but struggles some at setting the edge against the run. The fact that he was once a teammate of Gronk is almost enough to sell me on him. Seems to lack the agility to play in space at OLB. Also, projections have him going in the mid/late first round, whereas his skills seem to be more in line with a 2^nd round player. I would love to see him end up on the team, just not in the first round.

Justin Houston (UGA)- 6’3”, 270lbs. I’ve seen a few people project Houston to the Pats, and it’s easy to believe given Belichick’s affinity for SEC defenders. Another top notch pass rusher who struggles against the run. Projected late first rounder with 2^nd round value.

Akeem Ayers (UCLA)- 6’2”, 254lbs. A bit small, but still an effective run defender, proving capable of setting the edge. Has plenty of experience in pass coverage and does well, but is not an elite pass rusher. Also, has a less physical style than the Pats typically look for on D. Was a Team Captain.

Mid-round Options:

There are a lot, so I will just list a few that I wouldn’t be surprised to see end up in a Patriots uniform should they wait to select one:

Greg Romeus (PITT)

Ricky Elmore (Arizona)

Cliff Matthews (S. Car)

Sam Acho (TEX)Jeremy Beal (OU)

The pick:

Jabaal Sheard (PITT)- 6’3”, 265lbs. A team captain that fits the prototype size requirements that the Pats look for. Noted as one of the top pass rushers in the draft; relying on relentlessness, strong hands and a wide array of moves. Not a great run defended, but does an adequate job of sealing off blockers and setting the edge, which is key to run defense in a 3-4 scheme. Noted as having excellent instinct and play recognition skills. Has proved effective at dropping into zone coverage, and seems to be the all around player the Pats will be looking for. Look for Sheard to be picked with one of the two 2^nd round picks. Also, saved an old lady from a burning building when he was in high school so he’s got that going for him; which is nice.

2011 NFL Draft Preview: Defensive Ends

Defensive End

The date was September 6^th, 2009- the Sunday of Labor Day weekend. I was sitting at a diner in Hyannis with a group of friends recounting ridiculous stories of the past weekend (people falling off docks and into the harbor for a late night swim, girls kicking through glass doors to get into the hotel, etc) when my phone rang. It was Papa O. I assumed it was the standard call to make sure I was still alive after a weekend adventure with the idiots I call my friends. Nope.

“Did you hear the Pats traded Seymour” he asked. Whaaaaaaa? I shared the news with the table and started getting chewed out as if I was the one who traded him. So much for don’t shoot the messenger. How could they trade Big Rich? One of the unquestioned leaders of the team; a 5 time Pro Bowl selection (and 3x 1^st team All-Pro); was gone? You know it’s bad when even the girls at the table are upset that a Defensive End was traded. I can’t even think of the male equivalent to that – being upset over what dress Jessica Biel wore to the Oscars? Outraged at which golddigger got voted off of The Bachelor? I don’t know, think of something funny and laugh. Anyways-

After finding out the details – a 2011 first round pick (from the Raiders!! #1 overall???), and the unlikelihood that Rich was going to re-sign – I felt a lot better about the trade. But since that day, there has been a MASSIVE (6’6”, 310lb.) hole at RDE. Gerard Warren and co. played well last year, but there is an obvious need evidenced by the fact that NT Vince Wilfork was forced to move to DE against certain opponents. And now Warren is a Free Agent. Our other Warren –Ty - is coming off of hip surgery and has seen a decrease in production the past few years. Jarvis Green was forced to leave via Free Agency to make sure there were enough letters for BenJarvus Green-Ellis’ jersey. While there is good depth along the D-line, it’s time to find a top-tier anchor so Vince can stay at nose and the linebackers can roam free.

Position need: Moderate

Prototype: A behemoth (6’3”-6’6”, 290+ pounds) who can take on double teams and effectively two-gap when in the Base 3-4. Ideal player can move inside to DT (both for 3 and 4 man lines) on passing downs and pressure QB from inside/collapse the pocket.

Draft Depth: Analysts are raving about the depth of DE’s in this years class, but keep in mind that many of those players are in the 250-280lb range. Players of this size would play OLB in the Pats base 3-4 and will be covered later. I don’t see much depth for the above prototype. Belichick will either be selecting a DE with one of the two 1^st round picks, or wait for developmental prospect in the mid-late rounds.

Guys likely to be gone: It’s unlikely that Belichick will trade up in the first round, so don’t get your hopes up for these guys who should be gone before #17- J.J. Watt (Wisc), Cam Jordan (Cal)

Fit but not the pick: Mo Wilkerson (Temple)- The 6’4”, 315lb. beast has the ideal physical make-up the Pats target and is very athletic for his size. Team Captain in 2010. Has experience playing both DE and DT. Excellent run defender and can effectively rush the passer from both DL spots. However, there are concerns about his work ethic in the weight room.

I was ready to pencil Wilkerson in as my pick until I started reading pre-Combine reports. He was projected as a late 3^rd-early 4^th round pick. The Pats never seem to go for these “fast-risers”, and judging by most mock drafts, they’d have to take him at #17, which seems a bit rich for a player with some developing ahead of him.

Mid-round Option: Allen Bailey (It’s all about The U)- A 6’3”, 285lbs. physical freak. He grew up on an island off the coast of Georgia, with a population of 80 people. I know that isn’t football related, but what the hell? He also once killed an alligator with a shovel- badass, sign him up.

Belichick was at Miami’s Pro Day and most likely spent time reviewing film with him. He was a Team Captain and scouts rave about his work ethic. Played both DE and DT in college, and is stout against the run. Has less than average instincts, evidenced by slow play diagnosis. Lacks great hand technique. If Belichick passes on taking a DE early, look for Bailey in the late 3^rd round.

The pick: Cameron Heyward (THE Ohio State University)- 6’4”, 295lbs.. Sound run defender, with the size and strength to take on double teams and anchor on the outside. Good, not great pass rusher but relentless worker and can play DE or DT. Great instincts/play recognition. Read the following Scouts’ Inc. description for Heyward under “Intangibles” and tell me if it sounds familiar:

“Humble leader that deflects praise to teammates. A pace-setter both on game day and during practices. Was awarded Jack Stephenson Award (outstanding defensive lineman) by coaches in 2009 and team's outstanding first-year player on defense in 2007. Father is former NFL RB Craig 'Ironhead' Heyward.”

Sounds like a Patriot to me.