Boston's Best Late Draft Picks Part 2

Rounds 2-30 of the MLB draft occurred yesterday. I’m guessing less than 2 of you knew any of Boston’s first round picks so I’m not going to spend much time on any of these later round picks, though I will touch on a couple in a bit (one more note: in the 28^th round the Sox selected RHP Brenden Shephard from my parents’ alma matter, Stonehill). So without further ado, here is Part 2 of the Boston’s Best Late Draft Picks…

5) Cecil Cooper, 1B, 1968, 6^th Round, Brenham HS, 34.5 Wins Above Replacement

1968 was one hell of a draft for the Red Sox in the late rounds. The team whiffed on first rounder Thomas Maggard, who never played in the majors, but in addition to Cooper and Ben Oglivie, who was number 10 on our list, they also drafted All Star pitcher Lynn McGlothen in the 3^rd round and Bill “Spaceman” Lee in the 20^th. Cooper was the best of this class, though. He was actually selected by the Cardinals in the Rule V draft in 1970 but was returned to the Red Sox. He moved quickly through the minors and debuted with the Sox at just 21 years old.  He was a key contributor to the 1975 AL Pennant winners, getting most of the DH at bats in the second half of the season and playoffs. After a disappointing follow up campaign, Cooper was traded to the Brewers before the ’77 season for Bernie Carbo and George Scott. One season later was reunited with fellow ’68 draftee Oglivie. Like Oglivie, Cooper’s career took off when he went to Milwaukee. Finally given the chance to start full time at first, he made 5 All Star games in his 11 seasons with the Brewers and finished in the top 5 in MVP voting 3 times.

4) Mark Teixeira, 3B, 1998, 9^th Round, Mount St. Joseph’s HS, 38.0 WAR

Tex is the second active player on the list and the second player drafted by the Sox who did not sign, choosing instead to go to Georgia Tech. Like Jack McDowell, the move paid off for Tex as he was also selected with the 5^th overall pick by the Rangers. After a strong start to his career, he was traded to the Braves for a huge haul of prospects including Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus and Matt Harrison who make up the young core of the current Rangers. The Braves then traded him a year later at the deadline to the Angels for Casey Kotchman, which pretty much made their two trades (to get him and give him away) some of the worst in MLB history. Sox Nation knows what happens next: the Sox offered Tex a top free agent contract and he was about to sign when agent Scott Boras took the deal to the Yankees and asked them to top it, which they did, and the Sox failed to counter the offer. Now, he stars in the middle of the Yankee lineup and is second in baseball in homers so far this year with 18. Tex will be an interesting Hall of Fame case when his career is done. He has been a nomad to this point in his career, but now that he has settled in New York his profile has risen. However, with a huge pool of great first baseman in the game (Pujols, Votto, Fielder, Youk, Gonzalez, etc.), it may be tough for him to distinguish himself for voters unless he wins an MVP or two and leads the Yankees to another title.

3) Amos Otis, SS, 1965, 5^th Round, Williamson HS, 40.4 WAR

In the first ever MLB draft, the Red Sox selected Billy Conigliaro, Tony C’s little brother, out of Swampscott, MA with their first pick. 4 rounds later, they found number 3 on our list, though he would never play a game for the club. The following year, the Mets drafted him in something called the minor league draft. I’m not sure exactly what this is and since I’m lazy and it wasn’t in the first 10 Google results, we may never know. Anyway, Otis got a couple cups of coffee with the Mets in ’67 and ’69, now as an outfielder, but was traded following the ’69 season. According to his Wikipedia page, Otis clashed with manager Gil Hodges back when the manager had a lot more say in who stayed and who went. He was traded to the Royals for Joe Foy and he became an instant star for one of the top AL teams of the 70's. Otis was one of the premier speed and defense players in a time when speed and defense was king.

2) Dwight Evans, 3B, 1969, 5^th Round, Chatsworth HS, 61.8 WAR

We’ve already discussed Evans at length. So I want to take a quick time out from the list before we reveal number one. In the spirit of this list, I want to choose a few late round Red Sox draft picks from this year to follow their progress and see if the team has struck gold as they have so many times in the past. Assuming my three picks sign, this will be a recurring theme for as long as I have this blog. My picks, with analysis from ESPN Boston writer Chris Hatfield are as follows:

5th Round: Markus “Mookie” Betts, SS, John Overton HS (TN) 

Betts was the first multi-sport athlete picked by the Sox. He was also all-state in basketball and -- get this -- named the state’s best bowler as a junior during high school. He is committed to Tennessee, noteworthy because the Vols just fired head coach Todd Raleigh in May. He played shortstop in high school, but was going to move to second base in college. The 5-foot-9, 160-pounder has plus bat speed and is very athletic. 

6th Round: Miguel Pena, LHP, San Jacinto College North (TX) 

Pena has been drafted twice before, in the fifth round by the Nationals out of high school and in the 13th round last year by the Padres, from whom he reportedly turned down between $150,000 and $200,000. He went 10-3 this year for San Jacinto with a 1.91 ERA, 93 strikeouts and 24 walks in 85 innings. He throws a low-90s fastball with a sharp mid-70s curve, as well as a slider and changeup, and has outstanding command of his pitches. Pena was reportedly sent home from the Cape Cod League last summer for disciplinary reasons. He is headed to Lubbock Christian if he does not sign.   

8th Round: Senquez Golson, CF, Pascagoula HS (MS)  

Golson is committed to the University of Mississippi to play both football, at cornerback, and baseball, and could prove to be a very difficult player to sign. Golson possesses great speed (4.0 seconds to first base) and was considered one of the best athletes in the entire draft. He is no project though, as he has great bat speed and raw power potential. He hit .345 this spring for Pascagoula with 3 home runs and 16 stolen bases. 

I think this is a good mix of picks. Golson looks like he won’t sign, but he seems like the most intriguing prospect to me with his speed and strength. Pena could be a big surprise as well with his height and mix of pitches, plus being drafted 3 times means 3 teams saw serious potential in you. Finally, rooting for a 5’9’’ dude named “Mookie” is just fun.

1) Wade Boggs, SS, 1976, 7^th Round, Plant HS, 89.7 WAR

The top player on our list is Hall of Famer Boggs. The Red Sox actually did well in their first round pick this year, drafting Bruce Hurst, but in the 7^th round they found one of the greatest hitters of all time. It actually took Boggs 6 years to reach the bigs, but once he did he never stopped hitting. This fried chicken eating mother f*&^er led the league in batting in just his second season (his first of 5 batting titles). He would go on to make 12 All Star teams and win 8 Silver Slugger awards as the best hitting third baseman. He was a Boston cult hero, apparently drinking upwards of 50 Miller Lites on a cross country team flight and eating fried chicken before every game. Unfortunately for us, he signed with the Yankees in 1992 and we all had to watch with mouths full of vomit as he clutched a New York policeman on the back of a horse celebrating the 1996 World Series win.

The baseball draft is as much of a crapshoot as anything in this world, save for probably marriage. Albert Pujols was drafted in the 13^th round of the 1999 draft, a year in which 4 of the top 10 players selected never sniffed the freshly washed jock straps that big leaguers get to wear. In 45 years of the draft, there have been 0 number 1 selections to make the Hall of Fame (though Ken Griffey Jr., Chipper Jones, Alex Rodriguez are all likely to make it and Josh Hamilton, Adrian Gonzalez, Joe Mauer and Justin Upton are on the right path). As much as our knowledge of baseball has advanced through improved scouting and understanding of statistics, we still really have no idea when it comes to the draft. The next person to really figure out how to consistently look at some skinny 18 year old kid and project a future All Star will be the first and will always have a job in Major League Baseball. Until then, like with marriage, we can enjoy the honey moon of the draft and hope for the best five years from now.

Boston's Best Late Draft Picks Part 1

How many of you knew there was a baseball draft last night? Probably not many. MLB’s draft is not the spectacle of the NFL or even NBA draft for 2 reasons. The first is that college baseball (let alone high school) is not nearly as big as its counterparts so the players who are drafted are not household names. That is especially the case this year as, despite this being one of the strongest draft classes ever, there are no phenoms like Bryce Harper who made the cover of Sports Illustrated at 16 years old. The second reason is that it can take anywhere from 1 to 5 years for these first rounders to make the majors. Again, since there is no mature stud like Stephen Strasburg, it is unlikely we see any of these players on the big stage before the middle of next year. It is this overall anonymity that makes studying, watching and analyzing the MLB draft quite difficult.

The Red Sox had 4 picks last night in the first and “Sandwich” rounds (the round between the first and second for compensation picks awarded to teams for losing free agents), which was the second most on the night to only the Rays who had a whopping 10 of the first 60 picks. Armed with a large budget and an array of picks, it was pretty difficult for the Sox to have a bad night. The picks were as follows:

19. Matt Barnes, RHP, UConn

26. Blake Swihart, C, Cleveland HS (Rio Rancho, NM)

36. Henry Owens, LHP, Edison HS (Huntington Beach, CA)

40. Jackie Bradley, CF, South Carolina

I won’t try to analyze these picks because frankly I don’t know anything about any of them besides a few things I’ve read. You can get some analysis from Dallas Jackson at Yahoo! Sports, and below is a quote from ESPN’s Keith Law on the Red Sox, whom he deemed a “Winner” on the night:

 I hinted at this on Twitter, but some of the credit for Boston's draft is just that the right guys fell to the team. However, the Red Sox do deserve the rest of the credit for actually taking them (and, presumably, paying them). They got Blake Swihart, who I think will be an impact hitter and has a chance to do it as a catcher, with their second pick after preseason top-10 guy Matt Barnes -- whose velocity was fine but didn't show great command this year -- fell to them at No. 19. Henry Owens was spot on in the sandwich round as a projectable lefty who already hits 93 mph and has great deception, and they took a flier on Jackie Bradley's recovery from injury much as they did last year with Anthony Ranaudo.

Some solid praise for a team that has had a strong recent draft history. And that is what I would like to look at today, the Red Sox draft history. Since we won’t know for several years if Barnes is the next Josh Beckett, Swihart is the next Jason Varitek, Owens is the next Jon Lester or Bradley is the next Jacoby Ellsbury, let’s look back and see how the Red Sox have done unearthing talent in the draft. To do this, I want to look at the 10 best later round (5^th or later) picks the Red Sox have had since the draft began in 1965. Why not look at earlier round picks? Because that is too easy and boring. Do I really need to talk about how impressive it was to find guys like Clemens, Nomar, and Fisk in the first round? Wouldn’t it be more fun to learn about the needles in the haystack (or the hay in the needle stack)? Well I think so so that is what we will do.

I will be using career Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to make my list. For this exercise, don’t worry too much about what WAR is, just think of it as a way to measure how many wins a player contributed to his team over the course of his career. Someday I will go much more in depth on WAR, but for now it is just a nice tool for us to use. This is Part 1...

10) Ben Oglivie, LF, 1968, 11^th Round, Roosevelt HS, 25.7 Wins Above Replacement

Ogilvie, a native of Panama, made his debut with the Red Sox in 1971. He played 3 underwhelming seasons for the club and with Dwight Evans already in Boston and Jim Rice and Fred Lynn knocking on the door, Oglivie was deemed expendable. He was traded to the Tigers in 1974 (for aging second baseman Dick McAuliffe). In his 4 years with the Tigers he was never a full time player, but he provided  above average hitting when he got his chances. In 1978 he was traded to the Brewers and his career took off. He became one of the better power hitters in the game and was a key member of Harvey’s Wallbangers. He tied for the league lead in HR (with Reggie Jackson) with 41 in 1980, which was also the first of 3 All Star appearances. Oglivie was really only a full time player for about 8 years, but he retired at the age of 37 with 235 career home runs.

9) Jack McDowell, RHP, 1984, 20^th Round, Notre Dame HS, 26.8 WAR

Black Jack McDowell was originally drafted by the Red Sox, but he did not sign. Instead, he chose to go to Stanford and after his junior year was drafted 5^th overall by the White Sox. This is a highly common occurrence in the draft. The baseball draft is different that the NFL or NBA draft in that players don’t declare themselves eligible for the draft. Teams are allowed to draft the best players eligible (HS seniors, college juniors, seniors and some sophomores, junior college grads) and it is their job to convince them to sign. Typically, high school players will get picked in later rounds, like McDowell, and forego the low signing bonus to go to college and improve their skill and in turn their draft position. Going from a 20^th rounder to the 5^th overall pick was a huge coup for Black Jack. He was a three time All Star and (undeservedly) won the AL Cy Young in 1993 due to his league leading 22 wins.

8) Kevin Youkilis, 3B, 2001, 8^th Round, University of Cincinnati, 28.4 WAR

Youk is one of two active players on this list. He made it to the majors at 25, but gained notoriety a couple years prior when Billy Beane designated him “The Greek God of Walks” in Michael Lewis’ book, Moneyball (Youk is of course Jewish, not Greek, just ask Dennis Leary). In fact, Youk was even famous before being mislabeled by Beane. If you pay attention real closely to this clip, you will see a 14 year old Youk with a small part in Milk Money (he's the kid collecting money), starring Melanie Griffith. Since the acting didn’t pan out, he decided instead to become one of the best two way players in baseball, a key player on two World Series champions and a cult hero in Red Sox nation, while Griffith now looks like this.

7) Brady Anderson, OF, 1985, 10^th Round, UC Irvine, 30.7 WAR

Anderson was a part of one of the biggest trades in Red Sox history that worked well for the team in the short term, but backfired long term. At the 1988 trade deadline, the Sox traded Anderson and minor league pitcher Curt Schilling to the Orioles for Mike Bodicker. Bodicker pitched 3 strong seasons for the Sox and was key in the 1988 and 1990 playoff runs. Unfortunately, Anderson turned into a 3 time All Star and Schilling a potential Hall of Famer while the Sox failed in both postseasons to win it all. Anderson is probably best known for being the fishiest player to ever hit 50 home runs in a season. What makes his accomplishment crazier is that those 50 homers didn’t lead the league (McGwire had 52) and even though he helped lead his Orioles to the playoffs that year he only finished 9^th in the MVP voting, behind his teammate Rafael Palmeiro, who finished 6^th. This was probably because Anderson only had 110 RBI to show for his 50 HR, but this was a function of the fact that he hit leadoff or second in every game he started that year (another reason why RBI are worthless). I also like to think that the voters realized how fishy his season was and couldn’t bring themselves to vote him any higher.

6) John Valentin, SS, 1988, 5^th Round, Seton Hall, 30.9 WAR

Valentin is a prime candidate for a “Back to the Future” post so I’m not going to go in depth here. I would like to point out that Valentin had two teammates on that Seton Hall team that would go on to become much more famous than he. The first was his future Red Sox teammate, Mo Vaughn, who would be drafted in the first round the following year and would later win the 1995 AL MVP. The second was drafted the previous year in the first round as a catcher. His name was Craig Biggio. That 1987 team also starred National Collegiate Player of the Year Marteese Robinson, who was drafted in the 6^th round by the A’s year but never made the majors. 

Stay tuned for Part 2 tomorrow...