Red Sox Off-season Review: Beware Worms

On December 10, 2014, the Boston Red Sox had the following rotation: Clay Buccholz, Joe Kelly, Ruby De La Rosa, Anthony Ranaudo and Allen Webster.

On December 11, 2014, the Boston Red Sox had the following rotation: Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Clay Buccholz, Joe Kelly, Justin Masterson.

The pitching staff on December 11 is better than the pitching staff on December 10. Analysis over. Article over.

Ok, since you all paid good money to read my thoughts (oh you are here for free?), I will dive a little deeper. The thing is, the analysis of the rotation as it stands right now is really that simple. The three players that the team acquired on 12/11 are better and more reliable than the players they replaced. At the heart of any transaction that a competitive team makes, the goal should be to get a player that is better than the player he is replacing. In these transactions, the mission was accomplished.

Let me get one thing out of the way real quick. I already discussed this in the Jon Lester piece, but when evaluating these deals I really only want to look at what happened and not what people think could have happened. If you want to say they should not have traded for Wade Miley because he had a down year last year and he may not be that good, that is ok. If you want to say they should not have traded for Wade Miley, they should have traded for Jeff Samardzija instead, that is not ok. I'm sure the Sox made an offer to Oakland, but Billy Beane decided he liked the White Sox package centered around a young, MLB ready middle infielder. The Sox have two guys that fit that profile in Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts, but I hope none of you think trading either those two for Samardzija would be a smart move.

Since each of these players is an individual, let's take a look at each move individually before discussing the rotation as a whole (if you want a quick analysis just skip to the end)...

Rick Porcello

I will address the other side of this trade (Yoenis Cespedes) when I talk about the offensive additions. For now, let's talk about Porcello, who I think is now the team's "number one" starter. Some people will think calling Porcello our number one is depressing. In his career, he has had an ERA better than league average twice in six seasons. He typically strikes out less than 6 batters per nine innings. His career high in wins is only 15 (you all know I think pitcher wins are as valuable as an asshole on your elbow). Since Porcello has reached the big leagues, he has been nobody's idea of a number one starter, let alone an ace. But he is right now the best pitcher on the Red Sox, and I don't think that is a bad thing at all.

I am very optimistic about Porcello this year. The number one reason is Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. These strapping young men were the third and first basemen, respectively, protecting Porcello's myriad of ground balls in 2012-13. Both men should probably be DH's and that's been true for at least the last 3 years and yet they were being relied on to field behind an extreme ground ball pitcher. This, predictably, led to Porcello surrendering a lot of baserunners which in turn led to a high ERA. In 2014, the Tigers removed Fielder and moved Cabrera to first base, instantly improving the infield defense. Guess what else instantly improved? If you said Porcello's ERA you are right! Well now Porcello is going to a team with a Gold Glove second baseman and two very good defenders at third and first. If all he does is repeat what he did last year in front of a strong defense, then he's a very good pitcher.

Which leads me to my second point and that is the fact that I think Porcello is going to be even better this year. Porcello is going to be 26 years old this coming year and yet this will be his 7th full season in the bigs. All the pitchers that were on the roster were the same age or slightly younger and had between one and two seasons in the majors. These are all players we viewed as prospects, but Porcello is already fully realized. If we were hoping for those other guys to be a little better this year, couldn't we also make the same assumption about Porcello? Players tend to peak in their mid to late 20's so it is entirely possible we still haven't seen the best out of this guy.

It sucks that we only have him under contract for one season, but Cespedes also only had one season left so it seems like a fair swap. If he pitches really well this year and prices himself out of the Red Sox budget, then we will get a first round draft pick for him. However, I think if he pitches well here, the Sox will try to extend him and he will accept. Because he is only 26 years old, the team will feel much more comfortable giving him a 5 or 6 year deal that takes him to his age 32 or 33 season.

Bonus fun fact: He's a handsome dude. Also, he and his dad are supposedly building a cabin in Vermont (do they allow father-son marriages now too?), so I guess this means he is even more likely to sign here long term.

Justin Masterson

I'm not incredibly excited about Masterson, but he is only signed to a one year deal and he is likely a better bet to be serviceable than the De La Rosa/Webster/Ranaudo trio. I do think it was a good gamble on someone who has produced very good seasons recently in the majors.

In 2013, Masterson was a really good starter. A pitcher who has always been a ground ball machine (his career rate of 56.6% ground balls would have ranked third in the league last year among qualified starters), he took his strikeouts to a whole new level. For most of his career to that point he struck out about 17% of the batters he faced. In 2013, he upped that to 24%, which ranked 15th in all baseball. The main change in his approach that season was an increased reliance on a nasty slider that was nearly unhittable. The performance earned him his only All Star appearance and at just 28 years old he looked like a young pitcher hitting his prime.

Then last year he crashed back to earth. An early season knee injury evidently lead to altered mechanics, decreased velocity on the fastball (over 3 MPH), and a diminished reliance on his dominant slider. He was still a groundball machine (his 58.2% rate was the second highest of his career), but the strikeouts fell back and the walks increased. Players seemed to be able to lay off the slider more this year because they could just wait on the hittable fastball. With more balls in play and a questionable infield defense (former catcher Carlos Santana started the year at 3B and played 26 games there), his ERA sky rocketed. An in-season trade to St. Louis proved not to help either.

So why am I slightly optimistic about Masterson? First, he claims to be healthy again. If he is able to get his fastball up to 93 MPH and the coaching staff can get him to rely on the slider again, I don't see why his high strikeout rate won't continue. The second reason is the same reason that I am optimistic about Porcello (and Wade Miley) and that is the infield defense. Despite the injury, Masterson still got hitters to pound the ball into the ground a lot last year and that should continue. And if Masterson can't return to what he was in 2013, this is only a one year deal and he could have value as a bullpen specialist against righties. There is still enough rotation depth to replace him if he struggles.

Bonus fun fact: He was born in Jamaica.

Wade Miley

This seems like a good time to explain a stat called FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. This is based off a theory developed years ago by a writer named Voros McCracken (sounds like a Bond villain), where he realized that pitchers only have so much control over what happens once a ball is hit. They mostly control strikeouts, walks and home runs, but once a ball is put in the field of play they can't really dictate what happens (later people realized that different pitchers have control over ground balls and fly balls at least).

If you think about it, and if you've been following my analysis of Porcello and Masterson, this makes sense. If a routine ground ball is hit to Derek Jeter's left, it's likely to get through the infield for a base hit because Jeter, like another Derek, Zoolander, can't go left. But if that same exact ground ball is hit to Andrelton Simmons, it's an easy out. In those situations, the pitcher did nothing different, but in one situation he gave up a hit and the other he came one out closer to getting out of the inning.

FIP strips away the majority of balls put in play and focuses mostly on strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed and produces a number that is scaled to look like ERA. FIP is particularly useful when trying to determine whether a player who had a bad ERA will bounce back the following year, or if a player with a great ERA will collapse. If your ERA is higher than your FIP, you probably had an unlucky season. If you subtract FIP from ERA, you can see who may have had the most unlucky season.

In 2014, Wade Miley had a 4.34 ERA and a 3.98 FIP. The difference of 0.36 was 17th in baseball among pitchers with at least 162 innings pitched. Oh by the way, number one on that list was Clay Buccholz with a difference of 1.33, yet another reason for optimism this year. Also, Masterson would have ranked number one if he had enough innings with a difference of 1.34.

Ok, this makes sense at a certain level, but does it actually hold true? Do starters with an ERA higher than their FIP correct themself the following year? Well, while one data point doesn't prove a theory, we don't have to look farther than our own Rick Porcello to find a correlation. From 2010-2013, Porcello had an ERA of 4.64 and a FIP of 3.95. In 2014 when he had a better infield to pitch in front of, he had an ERA of 3.43 and a FIP of 3.67. For pitchers that put a lot of balls in play, a good defense is so important.

Miley, like Porcello and Masterson, generates a lot of ground balls (51.1% last season). Like those two guys he has also had a really strong season in his past (his rookie year in 2012). The significant differences with Miley are that he's a lefty and he's under team control for 3 more years. Lefties can struggle in Fenway because of the short porch in left, but with his ability to keep the ball on the ground, I think Miley will be comfortable here.

One thing to note about Miley is that he saw an uptick in strikeouts in 2014. Like Masterson in 2013, Miley started throwing his slider a lot more. Sliders are really difficult to hit for same handed hitters because it starts off looking like a fastbll, but once you realize it's a slider it has started darting far, far away from you. It appears this is a swing and miss pitch that should help Miley get out of situations with runners on base if he keeps it up.

Bonus fun fact: The D-Backs tried to get him to stop eating gluten and he told them to fuck off. He's going to love the North End.

Final Thoughts

The Sox had a clear Plan B when they lost out on Lester and there are some themes shared by the players they acquired.

• Each player is in his 20's. The team is trying to avoid commitments to pitchers in their 30's.
• Each player has had at least one strong season in the majors. The trio of De La Rosa/Ranaudo/Webster all have promise but none of them have translated that to Major League success. It was clearly important to find guys that have done it before.
• The Sox must believe they have a strong infield defense. Joe Kelly gives up the fewest ground balls in the rotation at about 48% (still well above average), so the infield is going to get a workout. These days, pitchers with high strikeout rates are all the rage, but if you have the right players you can find value in guys who generate specific kinds of contact.
• The goal was to find players better than the players they had on the roster without dipping into their pool of top prospects. They dealt from a position of strength in getting Porcello and offloaded a couple young pitchers they no longer wanted to get Miley. Masterson only cost money.
• The rotation overall may not be elite but it will be deep. Each pitcher has a high likelihood of being at least average. Combine an average start with an elite offense and the team should win a lot of games.
• If any of the new or incumbent starters are hurt or ineffective, the team still has Ranaudo, Workman, Wright, Owens, Rodriguez and Johnson to step in. Or, they could dip into that depth to acquire any number of other pitchers mid-season.
• If a trade for an "ace" does present itself, any of these guys can be bumped from the rotation. If Ruben Amaro lowers his demands, the team will have no problem sticking Masterson or Kelly in the bullpen or trading away Buccholz or Miley.

Bottom line, the moves improve the team. I think there is a lot of upside with these guys and Ben Cherington did a great job to pivot so quickly when they lost their number 1 target. There is still a lot of off-season left so the rotation could change, but if the season started tomorrow (now that Rondo is gone baseball can't come soon enough) I would be very comfortable with this crew.

Emotioal Mark v. Rational Mark: Rondo Traded

In honor of Stephen Colbert's final show, I am going to try a new gimmick inspired by his "A formidable opponent" gimmick: Emotional Mark v. Rational Mark.

The first topic my duality will tackle is the trade of Celtics star Rajon Rondo. For those who don't know the details, Rajon Rondo and Dwight Powell were traded to the Dallas Mavericks for Jae Crowder, Brandan Wright, Jameer Nelson, a protected 2015 first round pick (likely to be received in 2016), a second round pick and a $12.9 million trade exception. I apologize in advance for Emotional Mark; he's got a dirty mouth.

Rational Mark: This is the best the Celtics could get for Rondo. Let's look at how the rest of the league views Rondo at this point. He is a free agent after this year and expects to be paid a max contract. He does a lot of things really well, but he also does a lot of things really poorly. These things include shooting from the foul line, shooting from the three point line, and this year (not in years past) shooting from mid-range. He's also not quite the defender he used to be (though he is better than he has gotten credit for this year). He definitely chases stats. There is nothing quite like realizing he is within a few points/assists/rebounds of a triple double and watching him literally chase rebounds or pass up open shots for a pass or take contested shots instead of pass. He also may or may not have a bad attitude. I tend to think that trait has been overblown, but it certainly could have driven down his market value. So adding all these factors up, it's not terribly surprising we couldn't get much back.

Emotional Mark: This is the best the Celtics could get for Rondo!?!?!?! What is the fucking point then? These are not real assets. The players we got back are role players and the first round pick is likely to be in the 20's two years from now. You know what types of players get picked in the 20's? Fab Melo and JaJuan Johnson. Great work Danny, can't wait to see the next Fab Melo walk through that door. Why wouldn't we just hang onto Rondo through the rest of the year, let him throw beautiful entry passes to Tyler Zeller, perform his around the back fakes, post his triple doubles and then sail off into the sunset next year. Ya we would lose him for nothing, but we basically got nothing back. There is even the possibility we could have got a better offer closer to the deadline. I know the "experts" are saying this is the best we were going to do even if we waited, but so fucking what? This return is shitty. When you can eat shit now or eat shit later, why not just eat shit later if you at least get to watch Rondo for 3 more months? It's not like this was a deal we couldn't refuse.

Rational Mark: The return isn't so bad. Wright is a super efficient post player. The all time record for field goal percentage in a single season is 72.7%, held by Wilt Chamberlain in 1972. Wright this year is shooting 74.8%. Not many people can claim to hold a statistic better than Wilt. He does a lot of his damage on pick and rolls, a play set that Brad Stevens clearly wants to run more. He is also the mythical rim protector the team has been desperate for since they traded Garnett. Crowder is a good wing defender and can shoot threes. The less said about Nelson the better, but maybe he'll be an even better mentor for Marcus Smart.

The first round pick and trade exception are the real keys to the deal. The trade exception means that the Celtics can take on any contract or combinations of contracts up to $12.9 million in a trade even if they are over the cap. A large trade exception from the Paul Pierce trade was the only reason the team was able to get Zeller, Marcus Thornton and a first round pick. In a league often driven by financial decisions, the team now stands poised to absorb an undesirable contract from a team with the caveat they sweeten the deal with a first round pick and/or a young player like Zeller.

The first round pick may end up in the 20's next year, but it could also end up in the lottery this year or next year as well. Rondo will probably make the Mavs better, but he also may not. As we discussed before, there was a reason he was able to be had so cheaply. He could screw up what the Mavs have going right now. He could also get hurt as could Tyson Chandler or Dirk, who are both deep into their 30's, and torpedo that team. The Western Conference is an unforgiving bitch and just one injury on any of those teams could drop them right out of the playoffs.

Emotional Mark: Brandan Wright shoots 75% because he gets open shots because the Mavs have shooters surrounding him to space the floor. Who is spacing the floor on the Celtics? And who is going to get the passes to him off the pick and roll any way? I honestly sometimes mistake Phil Pressey for the ball boy and Smart can't stay on the court. Speaking of staying on the court, Wright has never averaged more than 18 minutes per game in a season. And oh by the way, Wright is a free agent after this year! This is one of the things that pisses me off most about this trade. Rondo is a free agent after this year so I get why you trade him so you don't end up with nothing. But Wright and Crowder are also both free agents so that counts for nothing. Nelson isn't a free agent, but that's not a good thing since he is just going to clog up the Celtics' cap sheet next year. The only long term asset acquired is a likely shitty draft pick to add to our "treasure trove" of other shitty draft picks from the Clippers and Cavs. If these assets had any real value, the Timberwolves would have traded us Kevin Love before the season started and we wouldn't be having this talk right now.

Rational Mark: Regardless of what you think about the assets the team has acquired, it was time to accelerate the rebuild. The Celtics right now were mildly competitive. They have lost a lot of close games this year that could easily have been wins. They aren't far off from the number 8 seed in the Eastern Conference (ya, the league is that bad once again). Keeping Rondo around could have made the team good enough to make that 8 seed. And while playoff basketball is great, getting swept in the first round isn't really that fun. Typically teams that hover around that 8 seed have a hard time progressing much further than that. It is pretty clear that Danny Ainge and ownership aren't content with challenging for playoff spots. They want to win championships. In making the team worse this year, they can improve their draft position and hopefully land their future superstar in the draft to go along with the other quality young players on the team.

Emotional Mark: I'm sick of the fucking draft, I really am. I played this game last year and I'm done with it. So what if we lucked into the 8th seed this year? That would be a huge accomplishment for these young players and it would have been an indicator that Rondo is a good leader. This has been a crazy fun team this year. The close losses suck, but the thing about rebuilding is that you don't really care about the final results. The Celtics haven't had a team this entertaining since 2009. Rondo is a huge part of why they were so much fun to watch. He does stuff on the court that I have never seen before. Not everything is necessarily the right move and he may not help the team win as much as it seems, but he's fun! Wins are great and championships are great, but fun basketball is just as great. If you don't think it's fun to watch Rondo than you are probably an old white Boston sportswriter named Dan Shaugnessy or Mike Felger or Gary Tanguay.

I also want to address this chase for the Championship. Winning the title in 2008 was amazing. I was there. It was one of the best nights of my life and I would love to get back there. The reality is that it is nearly impossible to win a championship in the NBA. In my 30 years on this earth, there have been 8 different NBA teams to win a championship. That means 22 teams have not won in that time. Almost every team that wins is anchored by a top 10 player and one or two more top 20 players. Getting guys like that is really difficult. I don't think Rondo is a top 20 player right now and I don't think he would help us land one. I also don't know that these draft picks will yield those players either.

My point in bringing all this up, is that it is more likely that the Celtics will not win a title in the next 30 years no matter what moves they make unless we luck into a once in a generation talent in the draft. So if we aren't going to win a title any time soon, why not just watch fun, unique, awesome players and teams? Trading Rondo makes me enjoy basketball less.

Rational Mark: You know what EM? You are right and surprisingly rational. This trade blows. What's the frigging point of watching basketball if teams are just going to consider the players a bunch of line items on a balance sheet? Basketball is a multi-billion dollar industry, but it's also a game. Games are supposed to be fun. Happy fucking holidays Boston, enjoy Jameer Nelson. It's 10:36 AM as I am writing this. Is that too early for a drink?

Emotional Mark: Not at all, RM. I'm already on my third. Let's go to whatever bar will have us and watch Rondo Youtube highlights.

Red Sox Offseason Review: Jon Lester

Repeat after me: Jon Lester is a Chicago Cub. Repeat after me again: Jon Lester was an Oakland A's free agent. Accepting these two basic facts is the first step towards understanding how the Red Sox were unable to bring one of the best left handed pitchers in team history back to Boston.

My simple analysis here is that I would have been happy if Lester had come back, even if the Sox were willing to match the $155 million contract he received, but I am not upset that he didn't return. I think there is a very healthy debate to be had over whether or not bringing him back on a six year deal was the right move at all, let alone one that will pay him over $25 million a year.

Since all the radio discussions have started/focused on the contract extension negotiations in March, I guess that is where I will start too. I will get this out of the way by saying that in making a 4 year $70 million offer to open negotiations, the team basically killed its chance at extending Lester for the notorious "hometown discount." I definitely don't think it killed their chances of signing him at all, but it meant he was going to test the waters to see what his market really was.

The thing is, in March 2014, his value shouldn't have been crazy high. Let's play a little game of player A and player B (granted I am cherry picking here; the analysis for long term contracts is much more nuanced here but it is illustrative of how the Red Sox could have started with 4 for $70).

From 2012 to 2013:

Player A: 24-22 record, 4.28 ERA, 418.2 IP, 97 ERA+*, 1.34 WHIP, 2.54 K/BB ratio
Player B: 25-24 record, 4.08 ERA, 390.1 IP, 95 ERA+*, 1.29 WHIP, 3.12 K/BB ratio

*ERA+ is a players ERA compared to his league average taking into account whether he pitches in a pitchers or hitters park. Player A is 3% worse than average; Player B is 5% worse than average.

Player A is Jon Lester; not exactly a great performance in the time leading up to the extension talks. Player B is Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco was a free agent after 2013 and he signed a 4 year, $49 million contract with the Minnesota Twins that off-season after posting very similar numbers to Jon Lester the previous two years.

Now, there are several differences that make Nolasco worse at that particular time than Lester. Nolasco was a year older (though when their new contracts start they would be the same age) and right handed. Lester had just had a dominant post season run while Nolasco pitched in one playoff game and gave up 3 runs in 4 innings. Lester also had many years of success prior to 2012 where Nolasco was below average most of that time. Nolasco pitched in the easier National League in a pitchers park while Lester was in the AL in a hitters park (though this is taken into account in ERA+). On the other hand, Nolasco was a free agent and free agent deals are always going to cost more than extensions before free agency.

I am not saying Nolasco is the equal of Jon Lester. In fact, offering Lester 4 for $70 shows that the Sox agree with that. All I am doing by pointing this out is that Lester's bargaining position wasn't as strong at the beginning of 2014 as people think. Until August 6, 2013, Lester had a 4.52 ERA before he got hot for 2 regular season months and one playoff month. With 2 years of data showing diminished performance and a much diminished strikeout rate, it was fair for the Red Sox to wonder whether it was smart to throw huge money at the guy for the next 6 years, all of which would be in his 30's when players typically decline. The team knew 4 for $70 wasn't going to get it done and maybe that was the point. Maybe they never really wanted him back, but I will get to that in a minute.

Lester headed into the 2014 season without a new deal. He bet on himself and it was clearly the right decision. By any measure (ERA+, WAR, FIP, ERA, K/BB) he had the best season of his career. The success seemed to show that maybe he made some kind of adjustment in his approach or mechanics in the middle of 2013 so this probably wasn't a fluke (seems like he ditched his changeup and threw his cutter more). Unfortunately for the Red Sox, Lester couldn't help the Red Sox score any runs so his success on the mound was completely neutralized. When the trade deadline rolled around, the team was faced with a choice: hang onto Lester and risk losing him for a late first round draft pick, or trade him for future assets. The Sox chose the latter and it was absolutely the right choice.

Some people believe that by trading him, the Sox hurt their bargaining position with him in free agency. I think this is completely false. Forgive me for temporarily speaking in hypotheticals and playing armchair psychologist, but by offering Lester 4 for $70, the team ended any hope they had in extending Lester or getting him for a major discount. Trading him at mid-season did not hurt their position whatsoever because he was not going to sign an extension and the Sox were going to be treated like any other team no matter what. If anything, the Sox did Lester a favor by giving him a chance to win another ring. This says nothing of the fact that the team traded 2 months of a player they had no use for for an extra year of a middle of the order bat plus a second round draft pick. It was a great trade for the Sox.

When the off-season started, the Sox began their pursuit of Lester pretty quickly. Reports said the first offer was 6 and $110 million, which seemed like another offer that meant the team didn't really want him back. But this wasn't a take it or leave it offer. When negotiating, one side offers low and the other side counters high. Eventually you meet somewhere in the middle. The Sox did nothing wrong starting at this level. They continued to increase their offer up to the end. John Henry flew to Lester's house to meet with him. These may have been PR moves, but at the end of the day the team made a pretty large offer to him and if he had accepted it then he would have been our Opening Day starter with no regrets. The Red Sox were one of two finalists for his services because Lester wanted to pitch here despite the low-ball March offer, the mid-season trade and the initial low offer to start the off-season. He was not insulted by anything the team did, nor should he be.

$135 million over 6 years is a lot of money and you can easily argue that is what Lester is worth. You can also argue that he is worth $155 million over 6 years. You can also argue that no pitcher in his 30's should get a 6 year deal. All arguments would be valid. Different teams have different methods of evaluating talent and all the wicked smart people in the Boston front office determined that Jon Lester was at most worth $135 million over 6 years. You could say that $155 million is only an extra $3 million a year so why not just give it to the guy if that's what would get it done, but where does it end? A team has to trust it's analysis and set a ceiling for what it is willing to pay. It is possible that the team knew that $135 million was just enough to be competitive but not actually get the job done, but that's a dangerous game to play. If you don't want a player for that much money you shouldn't offer it just in case he accepts.

Let's also be clear about something: this is a crazy risky deal. Pitchers are so unpredictable because of injury. Most pitchers get injured, even ones that looked durable when they were younger. CC Sabathia was a better and equally durable pitcher when he signed his big contract at age 28. The first 3 seasons of that deal worked out well, but then he under performed greatly in season 4 and was injured in season 5. He still has 2 years left and is going to be 34 next year. I think there is a much greater chance that Lester is bad for the last half of this deal than he is good, though some people seem to be ok with that. But why? Why just accept that for 2 or 3 years of a contract you are going to burn $25 million per year and it won't matter? It will matter! That's still a lot of money that you can't just ignore. Look at the Yankees this past year. They had all those expensive arms that were hurt or not effective and there was nothing they could do to fix it. Teams do have a limit on what they can and want to spend.

This is the problem with getting hung up on any one player. Yes, Jon Lester would have made the Red Sox a better team next year. He was the second best pitcher available in free agency and far better than any pitcher the team had under contract at the time of the negotiations. But he was not the only pitcher available and he was not the only pitcher that was better than what the Sox had at that time and signing an "ace" (which is still debatable whether he even is one) is not the only way to make your team better. You can improve the offense (which the team did), the bullpen (which is still possible) or the rest of the rotation where you have crappy options (which the team did). You can also realize that it is only early December and there is plenty of time to make other moves.

In sports, players are really assets to the front office. It's weird to say because as fans we love the human element. It's what brings us to the ballpark. The thrill of victory and agony of defeat. But when you are building a team, each player is essentially a number on your ledger of wins and losses. If you get hung up on specific players rather than the wins and losses you end up overpaying in dollars or prospects when you could have shifted strategies to improve your team just as much in another way. The Sox missed an opportunity to improve their roster at that time with just one player, but, as you will see, they have since found other ways to improve in 2015 and maintain a more flexible future.

We will all miss Jon Lester. He helped bring 2 World Series to Boston. He recovered from cancer to become one of the best pitchers we have ever seen in Boston. He helped bring chicken and beer to the clubhouse (oh wait, we are supposed to hate him for that right?). He was a very intense competitor. He threw a gorgeous cut fastball. He was a three time All Star. He has an outside chance at the Hall of Fame. The Cubs got an excellent player who should help accelerate their bid for contention. But in the long run, I think the Boston Red Sox will be better off.

Red Sox Offseason Review: Preface

I was driving on the Mass Pike this past Friday around 4 o'clock in absolutely brutal traffic. I guess people, myself included, don't work until 5 on Fridays anymore? Any way, I was having a bad time. Maybe it was the bad time I was having, the flurry of Red Sox moves made this week or the fact that I had already listened to my Presidents of the United States of America CD two times that day, but for some reason I decided to flip on sports radio for a bit to see what they had to say about the moves. If any of you have listened to Boston sports radio, you can imagine what the hosts and callers were saying. The team is too cheap even though they have the third highest payroll! How could you sign Justin Masterson to replace Jon Lester? Why would you spend so much money on two guys who aren't even that good and will probably get hurt? Let's talk about what happened last March! 2013 was just lucky and an aberration!

It was all so predictable, uninformed and short sighted that I felt it was necessary to say something. Before I get into the individual moves, I wanted to go through some common themes that have come up through their moves and in all the moves of the baseball world this offseason.

1. Money doesn't matter except when it does: The team clearly has a lot of money to spend. Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval will make a combined $40 million this year and Lester would have added another $23 million. The team has already made it clear that they are willing to blow past the luxury tax threshold for THIS year. But one thing they don't want to do is go past it for multiple years because when you do that, your tax payments increase dramatically. So the team is fine with large payouts this year, but when they look 4, 5, 6 years down the line they want to maintain financial flexibility. This article shows the teams with the largest guaranteed payrolls in each future season for the next 13 years. In 2016, the Yankees already have $170 million committed to just 10 players including the no longer effective CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, and Martin Prado. So the Sox are fine with offering long term contracts to players, but if they want to avoid what the Yankees, Dodgers, Rangers, Tigers and Angels are facing, they need to limit the total number of long term deals and the number of players over 30 years old that have them. In the short term, it is fine to spend a lot, but the money matters long term so they can continue to add to their team.
2. Offense is more difficult to acquire right now than pitching: I will get into this much more in depth when I cover the additions of HanRam and Panda. The Red Sox pounced on these two very early in free agency even though they already had a strong lineup in place and a terrible rotation at the start of free agency. Offense is down around baseball and there were only a few legit offensive threats on the market this year, compared to a robust free agent and trade market for pitchers. I have a feeling like the Red Sox internally have a valuation that says offense is even more important than we realize. Which brings me to my next point...
3. MLB front offices are smarter than me, you and definitely everyone on the radio: With the exception of Ruben Amaro in Philly and possibly whoever is running the Rockies these days, baseball front offices are smarter than they have ever been. There aren't many Woody Woodward's running around any more (the man who traded Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb). Sure, teams make debatable moves all the time and part of being a sports fan is arguing these moves. But one thing we have to admit to ourselves is that these people making the moves know more about stats, scouting, business, negotiation and player valuation than any of us. They have proprietary databases, financial experts and access to cutting edge data that none of us have even seen. If you think a player is worth $X and they think he is worth $Y, I am siding with them.
4. Prospects matter except when they don't: Sorry for another confusing headline. Prospects are really important to fill your team with cheap, controllable players so that you can fill other spots with expensive players who are more likely to perform. However, aside from the elite, near major league ready prospects, every other one is expendable in a trade. The team saw last year that it is just too risky to rely on too many young players that aren't elite. Even Xander Bogaerts, who is absolutely still elite, went through some prolonged slumps. This is why the team can't get rid of their top 4 young players, but anyone else should be free to go. I will go much deeper into this in the pitching section. 
5. Spring training doesn't start until mid-February: One thing the bitchers seem to forget is that there is still a LOT of offseason left. The team still needs more relief pitching, a backup catcher and they could use a better starter than what they currently have, not to mention they have too many outfielders still. People are acting as if the team is done. They are not done at all.
6. There is more than one way to win: The team needs an ace! Where's our ace! Gimme an ace! Ok, it would be nice to have an "ace", it really would. But that is not the only way to win in this league. The Royals won with a dominant bullpen, contact hitters, decent starting pitching, defense and speed. The Giants won with a stars and scrubs lineup and rotation and a dominant "ace." Other teams win with slugging offenses. Other teams win with 3 aces. There is no one way to do this. The goal should be to find as much talent as possible and that's what the Red Sox re dong right now.
7. Ignore hypotheticals: One of the most frustrating things this offseason, and probably every offseason, is how people just assume that the Red Sox can get any player they want with money or by trade. Why didn't we get Jeff Samadzija, we could have beat that offer? Maybe Billy Beane just really wanted Marcus Semien? If we had just matched the Cubs offer of $155 milllion we would have gotten Lester. Maybe he just wanted to go to Chicago for a new challenge? If we just offer Mookie and Xander to the Phillies we can get Hamels. Maybe that is dumb? I want to only focus on what the team actually did.

So over the course of the next couple weeks, I will dig into some of the major moves (and non-moves) the team has made so far. First up will be a review of the Jon Lester saga. Stay tuned...

Bring out your short stops!

Pretty exciting Winter Meetings this year, no? Aside from the Miami Marlins' (gonna take some getting used to) spending spree and the Albert Pujols derby, there has been some closer musical chairs, a rush on mediocre utility infielders, some smaller trades and a couple players (Papi) tucking their tales between their legs and accepting arbitration to come back to their old teams.

One very interesting development that could have an impact on the Red Sox is that the top 2 short stops on the market, Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins, are about to come off the market. Reyes took Miami's sweet sweet tax-payer-robbed-stadium money and Rollins appears to be heading back to the Phillies. What that leaves on the free agent market is Rafael Furcal and a bunch of players that probably belong in Eric Idle's wheel barrow (with Miguel Tejada playing the role of the dude saying "I'm not dead yet!") and a lot of teams needing to replace equally decaying options.

Enter Boston. The Red Sox find themselves in a position of relative strength with 2 and a half short stops on the big league team (Mike Aviles should not be considered a full time option) and the hopeful short stop of the future knocking on the major league door. With David Ortiz back (he is going to accept arbitration), Kevin Youkilis will likely stay at third base so the Red Sox are left with Jed Lowrie and Marco Scutaro fighting for the starting SS gig. Both players have been injury prone and neither is very expensive so the team could just hang onto both. But with Aviles as a backup and Jose Iglesias possibly joining the team after the All-Star break or in September, Boston can seriously think about trading Scutaro or Lowrie. Both offer a team in need a serious improvement over the remaining free agent options save for Furcal. So let's see if we can match up one of our guys with a team in need and see if they have some useful pitching to send back in a deal (because let's be honest, pitching is really the top need of this Boston team).

First, a list of all the teams that need a short stop, as I see it:
Baltimore
Minnesota
Oakland
Seattle
Mets
Atlanta
Milwaukee
St. Louis
Pittsburgh
Houston
San Fran

Right away, I think we can cross Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Houston off the list. They are all either just starting to rebuild or still rebuilding. Scutaro would definitely not be a fit and though Lowrie is youngish (28 next year), he is entering his first year of arbitration so he's not totally cheap, so I don't think he'd be a fit for these teams.

Minnesota has enough (shitty) options to make do at short so they should be out. Seattle has Brendan Ryan who is one of the game's best defensive short stops; they seem to understand the value of strong defense at premium positions, but if they decide this is a position where they want more offense they could pick up the phone and call Ben Cherington, but I doubt it. Ditto Oakland and Cliff Pennington (unless they want Lowrie at third).

That leaves 5 teams that could be intrigued by Lowrie or Scutaro if they whiff on Furcal. Here they are in reverse order of who I think is the best fit (not necessarily the most likely to make a deal):

5) Mets
I have seen conflicting reports saying the Mets are looking to deal anybody that isn't bolted down (David Wright) and that the Mets are not ready to tear it all down. In the former case, the Mets probably aren't a fit, unless teams view Lowrie as a short stop of the future type. In the latter, Scutaro would be a great fit. The Mets just lost one of their franchise players (Reyes) and have someone they think could be his replacement in Ruben Tejada. Tejada will be just 22 years old this year. He had a decent season last year filling in for the injured Reyes, but I think he could use more seasoning in AAA. The Mets have been notorious for rushing their prospects the last half decade so they probably see him as their starter next year, but Scutaro would provide them a great opportunity to be patient.

The Mets have some interesting pitching options to send back to the Sox in the bullpen and the rotation. 25-year old Jonathan Niese is the best starter available, but Scutaro won't bring him to Boston. R.A. Dickey would be a really cool addition because he is Tim Wakefield's knuckle ball heir and could spend a season learning from Wake, but Scutaro still probably is not enough. Bobby Parnell was given the opportunity to close last year, but blew 6 saves in 12 chances so the Mets went out and signed two potential new closers. He has a high strike out rate and he puts a lot of men on base, but I think he'd be worth a look. He'd be my target.

4) St. Louis
Had I wrote this yesterday when it looked like Pujols was going to Miami, I would have put St. Louis number 1. If the team lost Albert they probably would have used their money to improve their rotation in the form of Mark Buerhle, C.J. Wilson or Edwin Jackson and would have had some pitchers to trade. Now, with Pujols coming back they probably can't afford any of those pitchers (especially Buerhle, because, you know, he's not a free agent anymore) so they do not have as much starting depth to trade. In addition, I see this as the most likely landing spot for Furcal, who won a long overdue World Series ring with the team last year.

3) San Fran
I've long since given up trying to figure out what Brian Sabean thinks when putting together his teams. He did an incredible job drafting Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner (not to mention Buster Posey), but seems to have no idea how to put together an offense. The team wasted so many roster spots on aging veterans who can't hit last year that they failed to capitalize on the second best pitching staff in baseball. Right now they appear poised to give the job to 25-year old Brandon Crawford. The same Brandon Crawford who posted a triple slash line of .204/.288/.296 last year.

Should Sabean decide that offense is a priority (because it is), they have some good bullpen arms to deal for Scutaro including Jeremy Affeldt, Javy Lopez (former Sox) and, my choice, Sergio Romo and his 13.1 strike outs per nine. Since Sabean looooooooooooves veterans, Scutaro is the more likely target. However, if I were running the Giants, I would target Lowrie. And if I were simultaneously running the Red Sox (a boy can dream, it is the holidays) I would only take Romo for Lowrie.

2) Atlanta
The Braves are cheap. Let's just get that out of the way. In that event, they will most likely settle for one of the bottom of the barrel players on the market like Orlando Cabrera or Alex Gonzalez again (to Red Sox fans that long for these players, they are nowhere near what they used to be). They are another offense-starved team that could really use either Scutaro or Lowrie, but with Scutaro's $6 million salary and Lowrie entering arbitration, the Braves could be scared off. Lucky for us, the Red Sox have a lot of money and could afford to kick in some money in any deal with the Braves.

Atlanta could part with Kris Medlen, Peter Moylan or lefty Eric O'Flaherty for Scutaro with that aforementioned money kicked in. OR, the Sox could aim for a starting pitcher like Mike Minor or Jair Jurjens (I prefer Minor) if they want to expand the deal to include either Ryan Kalish or Josh Reddick and a prospect. This is unlikely, but it is definitely my favorite option if they could make it work. A starter would be a much more important add to this team than a bullpen arm, especially a young one.

1) Milwaukee
Let's run through what it takes for a team to make a trade one more time:

• A need: The Brewers employed Yuni Betancourt at short last year, one of the worst players in baseball for several years now. Their top two shortstops in the minors last year were 16 and 29 years old.
• Money: The team is probably not going to bring back Prince Fielder; they whiffed on Jimmy Rollins (and will probably whiff on Furcal); they may or may not bring in Aramis Ramirez to play third but that shouldn't break the bank.
• Assets: The Brewers had a very good bullpen last year that they improved at the deadline with the acquisition of Francisco Rodriguez, who is now a free agent. Except, reports are that he is set to accept the Brewers offer of arbitration tonight, meaning he will return to the team on a 1-year deal, likely north of $10 million. I think the man formerly known as K-Rod is the perfect return for Marco Scutaro. The Sox would only take on $4-7 million in this deal. The Brewers get a solid short stop on a 1 year deal so they free up money in subsequent years to extend either Shaun Marcum or Zack Greinke, or both. Finally, the Sox get a motivated K-Rod in either the 8th or 9th inning looking to prove that he can close again and get a bigger contract in 2012 when the closer market shouldn't be as flooded as this year. With the differences in salary, the Sox may even be able to ask for a second bullpen arm that would deepen the pen. If I am Ben Cherington, I am eagerly waiting K-Rod's arbitration decision. Like when Rafael Soriano accepted the Braves arbitration in 2007, the Brewers are unlikely to want to keep a setup man at that price.

Of course, the Sox will probably trade Aviles to the Pirates for Evan Meek. Who's excited for 2012?

This guy

Hello New Friend: Third Base

NOTE: The views expressed in this post are almost entirely my own opinion and are not based on any rumors or reports of the team's actual intent.


Red Sox fans got down on Theo Epstein for some of the high profile moves he made in his tenure in Boston. I don't need to run through the list because Dan Shaughnessy has used the list in each of his last 59 columns about the team. These free agent busts don't bother me so much because the team has the budget to absorb these contracts while they were also turning out high impact prospects. Two transactions that I want to focus on as Theo settles into the friendly confines involved the same player: Adrian Beltre.

Beltre was brought in on a make-good-1-year-deal after a disappointing final season in Seattle. Despite his down offensive numbers in that last season, Beltre was one of, if not, the best defensive third basemen in baseball and there were good indications that his right-handed power would play much better in Fenway Park than in Safeco Fielld. The gamble paid off as Beltre turned in the second best season of his career, leading the league in doubles and playing his usual amazing defense. Then Theo traded for Adrian Gonzalez to take over first base and he had a decision to make: pick up David Ortiz's one year option and move Kevin Youkilis back to his original position or decline the option and make an effort to bring Beltre back and play Youk full time at DH. Well, those of us who watched the playoffs this year and saw Beltre smash 5 home runs on the way to the AL Pennant know how that turned out.

So now, Theo's replacement, Ben Cherington, is left with another decision: allow Youk the Incumbant (that'd be a cool name for a modern day politician, kinda like Alexander the Great or Attila the Hun) to hold down the hot corner or shift him to DH where he can rest his aging body.

To examine the options, I am going to compare the players to Saturday Night Live cast members. With Eddie Murphy's recent resurgence (which appears to be short lived after Tower Heist bombed and Eddie decided to pull out of hosting the Oscars) I have been watching a lot of SNL, especially old ones. I have come to realize just how unfunny a lot of those episodes were even at the supposed heights of the original cast and Eddie's peak. Maybe it's just a sign of the times, but the Phil Hartman and Will Ferrell led casts were much more funny in my opinion. Anyway, onto the third base options.


Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
The current star of the internal options, Youk may follow Chevy Chase in being a one-year wonder. Chevy left SNL after just one year to pursue a lucrative (if brief) movie career. Youk may be wise to do the same. I've discussed it before, but he has the potential to mirror Edgar Martinez's career path if he makes the shift to DH full time this year. I really don't think his body is in the position to handle the rigors of playing third base, but he can still be an excellent hitter and a big part of this team. If I am calling the shots, I am planting his ass on the bench when the team takes the field.

Jed Lowrie, Red Sox
Lowrie is another guy I have written about before. He may not have been the savior I was saying he'd be, but he is very useful. Like Dan Aykroyd, Lowrie will probably never be a star, but he has a set of skills that allow him to be very valuable. Aykroyd is one of the most versatile actors ever to be on SNL, but was always left in the shadow of Chase, Belushi and Murray. Lowrie is similarly versatile and also shadowed by home grown stars like Ellsbury, Pedroia and Youkilis. His defense may be stretched thin at short, but at third it could be an asset. He's got a little bit of power and some on base abilities. His biggest problem is staying healthy so he may not be an option as the full time starter at third. But with Youk still around and the next guy on the list possibly hanging around as well, Lowrie could take the majority of the time and receive some days off to preserve his health.

Mike Aviles, Red Sox
Aviles gets the unwanted mantle of the Garrett Morris of the internal options. Some readers may not even know who Morris is because he was never given much to do besides being the token black guy on a TV show that existed in a still racist TV landscape. But he wasn't completely without his uses, especially the "News for the Hard of Hearing" sketch. Aviles also has his uses, namely his speed, power and versatility. I would not want him as the full time starter, but if someone can teach him how to run the bases, he could be a useful guy to have around as a super-utility player.

Will Middlebrooks, Minor Leaguer
Murray was not an original cast member. He was brought in to replace Chevy, which he did better than anyone could have hoped. Middlebrooks really broke out this year, hitting 23 homers in just 439 at bats. He will be just 23 this season and struggled in a brief appearance in AAA. My guess is he starts the season there this year, but we could see him in September. He has some OBP issues and he strikes out a lot so he may never become a valuable Major Leaguer, but the power appears to be real so he is worth keeping an eye on. For now, he is a not ready for prime time player.

Aramis Ramirez, Free Agent
That picture is of Michael McKean. He joined the cast in 1994 after already having a long and well established career (Laverne and Shirley, This is Spinal Tap, Clue, Short Circuit 2). He was 47 years old when he became a full time player. Ramirez has had a long and well established career as well. The Cubs basically stole him from the Pirates as a 25 year old who already had a 34 HR season under his belt. For 8 years, he was one of the best hitters in the Cubs lineup and last year bounced back after a tough 2010. He could go on to have some good years in the twilight of his career (like McKean did with Best in Show and A Mighty Wind), but he seems too risky to me and his defense at third is very sub par.

Michael Cuddyer, Free Agent
That picture is of Harry Shearer (and Martin Short) in one of my favorite ever SNL sketches, the "Men's Synchronized Swimming" sketch. Shearer is even more versatile than Aykroyd because of his incredible voice. He is one of the main voice actors on The Simpsons and has partnered with McKean and Christopher Guest to basically invent and perfect the "mockumentary." But he is definitely not a well known star. I wrote about Cuddyer in my right field analysis and the same holds true here. Love the versatility, but I don't think his bat plays well in a corner position and I think he will be paid more than he is really worth. I also would not be surprised if the Sox brought him on board.

Martin Prado, Braves
Anthony Michael Hall had 4 successful movies (16 Candles, Breakfast Club, Weird Science, Vacation) before joining SNL at just 17 years old. Martin Prado has had 3 successful seasons (2008-2010 OPS+ 18% above league average) and is just 28 years old. Some similarities there, but the key similarity comes in the fact that Hall was a terrible fit for SNL and Prado would be an equally bad fit as the new Sox third baseman. Prado is a good player and he has that key word "versatility" I keep mentioning, but his career high in HR is 15 and walks is 40. This is not the profile of a third baseman for a top offense. He has been mentioned in a lot of trade rumors (not involving the Sox, though) and has plenty of experience at third, but I just can't see it. In fact, after his down season last year, he may follow Hall in another way: falling into complete obscurity.

David Wright, Mets
As the best player on this list, I was tempted to give Wright the Eddie Murphy spot. But let's be honest, unless we are talking Mike Schmidt or George Brett, no third baseman can compare to Eddie's SNL stint. So instead we will go with the man who was rejected from SNL originally only to return almost 10 years later after a successful stand-up career and a star turn on Soap. For the first 5 years of his career, everything pointed toward Wright being an all time great. He hit over .300 every full season, increased his home run totals almost every year, stayed healthy and played excellent defense. Then, when Citi Field opened, he posted 10 HR in a full season. The next year, the power returned but the average and elite OBP took a tumble. The next year, the health disappeared as well. Now we don't know what to expect of this once steady and amazing player. With the Mets not bringing Jose Reyes back and facing financial issues thanks to the Wilpons and Bernie Madoff, Wright could be had for the right package. I'm just not sure the Sox would have what it takes to bring him on board. If the Mets get desperate I would definitely try to trade for him, but I don't know if that will ever come. My guess is any potential package would start with Jose Iglesias, but with the way the short stop market looks right now the team can't afford to give that up.

What to do, what to do?
Once again, I think the option is to stay internal (boring, I know). I really don't like the free agent options and I think Wright would cost too much in talent to bring on board. The best options as I see them is either give Youk one more chance to prove he can handle the position (I doubt he can though) or shift him to DH and let Lowrie and Aviles take the job. The position may take a hit on offense in that event, but the improvements that Lowrie and Aviles may offer on defense, plus a healthy and productive Youk at DH should make the move a net zero. We have to remember that this team should have won between 95 and 98 games last year, so we do not need to make big improvements. As long as we hold steady at most positions while improving some intangibles, those 95 wins (and thus a playoff spot) should still be within reach.

Bonus
Here is a funny video from this past week's SNL with host Jason Seigel:

Hello New Friend: Closer

NOTE: The views expressed in this post are almost entirely my own opinion and are not based on any rumors or reports of the team's actual intent.


"Shipping up to Philly" just does not have the same ring as "shipping up to Boston," does it? As most of you have heard by now, Jonathan Papelbon has taken that sweet Philly money to blow, I mean close out 1-0 gems spun by Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels. For $50 million over 4 years, the Phillies are the latest team to gamble that their reliever will be the second exception (Rivera being the other) to the rule that signing relievers to long term deals is a bad idea. I have definitely advocated for the Red Sox to bring him back for 3 or 4 years before, but now that I see that contract in print, I think I may have had a momentary lack of judgement.


With his departure, there are two key questions that need to be answered. The second, which I will get to in a moment, is who closes for Boston next year? The first and most important is what local song does Pap choose as his new entrance music? One obvious choice would be Motown Philly by Boyz II Men, but that doesn’t seem to have the ability to pump someone up. Will Smith has a long and illustrious catalog (Boom Shake the Room would certainly get me going), but I don’t think even Pap would have the hubris to deface this legend. John Coltrane called Philly home, but I would guess Pap understands the intricacies of jazz about as well as he understands the intricacies of the English language. Patti Labelle and her heir apparent Jill Scott are options, but not realistic. Philadelphia Freedom by Elton John would be cool, but last I checked Elton was from somewhere east of Philly so it doesn’t follow the Dropkick rule. Joan Jett’s I Love Rock and Roll could be cool, but Pap doesn’t seem the one to cross gender lines and seek equality. Hall and Oats is also an option, but in the homophobic culture of baseball, I don’t think Maneater would fly. So if he is sticking local, that really only leaves one option, though I really don’t like the song or the band: Bloodhound Gang’s Bad Touch. 

Now that we got that important decision out of the way, let’s look at who may be taking the mound in the mythical closer’s role this year. Since I am still celebrating Movember (donate here: http://mobro.co/sexybostonsports) I am going to break the candidates down into categories based on famous moustachioed men.

Tom Selleck: The Pantheon of Moustache

Nobody

I only include this category to show off perfection and to explain that there is nobody available that is close to the pantheon of closers. The only closer of the last 20 years who we could comfortably compare to the Selleck Stache is Mariano Rivera (fittingly, his nickname is “Mo”). Even before Pap signed, I would not have put him in this spot. Closers not named “Mo” are extremely volatile, so even when you find one of the top ones of the last couple years, chances are he will have some ups and downs over the length of a long-term contract. Keep this in mind if your team signs a reliever for 3 years or more.

Ron Swanson: The Current Elite

Ryan Madson, Free Agent; Heath Bell, Free Agent; Daniel Bard, Red Sox

This group of pitchers has been consistently excellent over the last couple years and should have a few more years of effectiveness in them. Like Ron Swanson, they are not household names, but they do all the important things you need.

Bell has the most closing experience and is the oldest of this group (34). Since the Mets stupidly traded him to San Diego 4 years ago, he has been absolutely lights out. He has saved over 40 games the last 3 years, if you are into that sorta thing (I am not). There are a few big red flags here, however. In 2009-10 his strike outs per 9 was 10.6, but it dropped to 7.3 per 9 this year. Reports I have read say this is due to a decrease in fastball velocity. The other issue is that he likes to pitch up in the zone, a strategy that works wonders in the expanses of Petco Park, but may not fly in the smaller Fenway. I think he also wants to stay in San Diego so he would probably be expensive to pry away.

Madson became the odd man out when the Phillies signed Pap. This is what Keith Law (Insider Only), ESPN writer and former Blue Jays scout, has to say about Madson: 

I'd give him more money and more years than any other reliever on this market, and I think he has the best chance to defy the high attrition rates that characterize his brethren of the bullpen. He throws hard, misses bats with his changeup, pounds the strike zone (eight unintentional walks in 2011, 10 the year before) and is as good a bet as anyone on this market to avoid arm injury.

I fully agree with Law. People said that Madson "couldn't handle the job" because he had never done it before and then when he was finally given the opportunity he continued to be lights out. Another case of people overstating the value of the "closer" tag. Madson was reportedly close to a 4-year $44 million contract with the Phillies before they signed Pap. If it takes 4 years to get him done, I would avoid him, but 3 should be good.

People seem to be down on Bard because of the 9 losses he took on the season. His ERA also jumped from 1.93 to 3.33 from ’10 to ’11. This has led to questions about whether or not he can “close” and if he has the mentality for it. I think this is all a bunch of crap and don’t see any reason why he shouldn’t be able to. If you look beyond losses and his ERA, his WHIP, HR/9, SO/9, BB/9 and SO/BB were all equal or better last year than the year before. I will admit that in pressure situations he was not as good as he was the year before, but the fact remains that he was excellent in these situations the year before. What this really shows is not that Bard can’t handle the job, but that relievers fluctuate greatly year to year with their situational pitching. The fact that Bard was able to maintain his talent level even though he didn’t maintain the performance in pressure situations is encouraging. If I were running the team, I would be handing Bard the ball in the 9^th (well, if I were running the team, I would hand the ball to Bard in whatever was the most difficult situation in the game, like a tie game in the 7^th with the bases loaded).

Carl Weathers: Underrated Group

Joel Hanrahan, Pirates; Huston Street, Rockies; Fransisco Rodriguez, Free Agent

I’m gonna get real with you for a second. Black men do not get their due for excellent moustaches. Look at Carl Weathers up there. What doesn’t he have that white moustache greats like Selleck, Swanson and Mercury do have? I admit that I am inherently biased towards white moustaches, but I don’t know why. Black men can sport a luscious mound of lip cover just as well as white men can and it is a damn shame they don’t get credit for this. We have a black president now, guys, we have to get with the times.

Hanrahan and Street are the most intriguing trade candidates. Hanrahan is a former high strikeout/high walk fireballer who changed his approach this year and became a much better pitcher. His strikeouts were down, but so were his walks and he learned how to keep the ball on the ground this year. He only allowed 1 HR last year, which isn’t sustainable, but I think he would be a great fit on this team and in this ballpark. The Pirates may be unwilling to trade him, though, because they have some (delusional) designs on contending this year.

If hitters who put up huge numbers in Colorado get instantly discounted for their work, why is it that pitchers don’t automatically get bonus points for surviving the mile high air? Street was traded to Colorado 3 years ago and has maintained the same excellent strike out to walk ratio he had in Oakland (he set a personal best last year with a 6.11 ratio). Where he has suffered is in giving up extra base hits. He went from one of the most pitcher friendly ball parks in Oakland to one of the most hitter friendly in Colorado and his ERA predictably went up. To me, he still seems like the above average closer from his Oakland days and would be a worthy gamble. Colorado appears to be shopping him as well so they could dangle a groundball specialist from the minors if they have one.

Rodriguez (formerly known as K-Rod) was one of the more recent closer busts. He suffered from injuries, bad behavior and a drop in velocity during his contract with the Mets, but bounced back to have a solid season last year. He no longer blows people away with his fastball, but he has found a good mix with his fastball and changeup to keep hitters off balance. Teams will probably be looking at him in a set-up role, but a 9^th inning guarantee would probably put him in Boston. For a high value 1-year deal (maybe $7-8 million) I would give him a shot to re-establish his value.

Charlie Chaplin: Damaged Goods

Jonathan Broxton, Free Agent; Joe Nathan, Free Agent; Brad Lidge, Free Agent

Two controversial categories in a row! Chaplin represents the damaged goods group because of his style of moustache. Though he rocked this style first, it is forever condemned for obvious reasons. Michael Jordan (what the H?) has made a valiant effort to take the style back, but it is unclear whether or not the glory can ever be recaptured. Just like these former great closers who have suffered a string of injuries recently.

Broxton was fighting with Papelbon to be the heir apparent to Rivera just 2 seasons ago before injuries took their toll (volatility!). He only pitched in 14 games last year and walked over 6 guys per 9 before he was shut down for the season. He had surgery for bone spurs in his elbow, which is easier to recover from than Tommy John surgery, so he could bounce back a bit. He’s another guy who should have to accept a 1-year deal with some incentives built in. He may be open to working as a set-up guy behind Bard first to prove his health.

Nathan actually was the second best closer in baseball from 2004-09. He struck out a lot of guys, did not walk many, kept home runs down and was excellent in pressure situations. But he missed all of 2010 recovering from Tommy John surgery and missed time in the middle of last year. He was mostly ineffective last year and could be done as an effective reliever period. He did still strike out almost a batter per inning and kept his walks down, but he suffered from some serious gopheritis like never before. I would probably stay away from the 37 year old.

To me, Lidge will always be the guy who served up the 3,000 foot home run to Albert Pujols in the 2005 NLCS. I don't know how he ever recovered from that. He also missed time last year with an elbow injury suffered in 2010. When he returned, he took his repertoire as a high strikeout/high walk pitcher to a new level. He struck out 10.7 per nine, a little below what he did in his prime, but he also walked 6.1 per nine in his 25 appearances. Yikes. He did have a strong September in 12 appearances so he may have gotten his control back under…control. I think he is the riskiest of all the Chaplin group and I would stay away.

Bobby Valentine: Closer Posers (rhyming!)

Fransisco Cordero, Free Agent; Octavio Dotel, Free Agent; Matt Capps, Free Agent

That's your potential new manager, Sox fans! Dale Svuem is looking pretty good right about now, no? This incident came back in 1999 when Bobby V was managing the Mets. He was ejected late in a game, but apparently was not ready to hit the showers. So he went to the clubhouse, grabbed a fake moustache (they have these just lying around the Mets’ clubhouse?) and sun glasses and returned to the bench. Unsurprisingly, he was caught and suspended. This group of “closers” are like Bobby V’s fake ‘stache: they have qualities of a moustache/closer (hair on the face/saves), but ultimately are not acceptable.

Cordero just finished a 4-year deal with the Reds when they declined his 5^th year option for $12 million. Though $12 million is a lot, if you have a strong closer and you are trying to contend, you can accept a few extra million on a 1-year deal. Red flag number 1. Cordero is basically riding off the shine of his high save totals. Over the last 4 years, he saved 150 games, 3^rd most in baseball. So does that mean he is the 3^rd best closer? Absolutely not. If you look at some of his other stats that relate to his actual talent level you see a middle of the pack reliever: Strikeouts 29th; Walks allowed 8th worst; ERA 42nd; ERA+ 41st; OPS allowed 59th; Strike out to walk ratio 280th (YIKES); WPA 33rd (a stat that measures performance in pressure situations). In addition, his fastball velocity has dropped the last 2 years and it’s movement has increased meaning it is harder to control (more walks). Also, he started throwing his slider more than ever last year, but it had the least movement on it in his career so it is becoming more hittable. He’s also 36 and will probably look for at least a 2-year deal and closing duties. No. Thank. You.

Dotel was excellent for the Cardinals down the stretch (despite not being deployed properly by Tony LaRussa in the World Series). He is a phenomenal reliever and I would love to have him on the Red Sox. But not as a closer. A closer needs to be able to dominate righties and lefties equally and Dotel has pretty extreme splits. Last season, versus lefties he allowed a .845 OPS; against righties it was .410. Definitely try to bring him to Boston but keep him away from lefties.

Finally, Matt Capps. I have heard rumors of the Sox being interested in Capps, though not as a closer. It’s not surprising that the Sox aren’t blinded by his save numbers from a year ago when he was hilariously an All Star. What I don’t get is why they would want to bring him in at all? The positives are that he is young (still only 28), gets a lot of ground outs and does not walk many. The negatives are that despite inducing ground balls he also gives up a lot of home runs, he doesn’t strike many people out, he may come expensively because of the “proven closer” label, and he doesn’t exactly dominate righties (though he is effective against them). So if they bring him in as a set-up guy he will probably be too expensive and as a situational guy he lacks any particular situation to be deployed in. Let some team like the Royals get starry eyed at his save totals, thank you very much.

What to do, what to do?

Give the job to Bard. That is how the team has been grooming him the past 3 years. He has youth, a blazing fastball, a strong slider and changeup and good numbers. The “closer mentality” is largely a myth and I don’t think he will have problems stepping into the role. Instead of spending big on Madson or Bell, I would take that money and spread it out over some guys on this list like K-Rod and Dotel to deepen the bullpen, because that was the biggest issue last season, a shallow bullpen. As long as the new manager is open to deploying his best relievers in the toughest situations and Ben Cherington supplies him with enough talent to mix and match, Bard should be a great option as the leader of the new bullpen. 

Hello New Friend: Right Field

NOTE: The views expressed in this post are almost entirely my own opinion and are not based on any rumors or reports of the team's actual intent. Enjoy.


2012 marks the sad likely departure of fan favorite J.D. Drew. After 5 magical seasons, the Drewster is probably headed toward the happy hunting grounds (literally). From day one, J Dizzle endeared himself to Red Sox nation with his steely demeanor, keen batting eye, self preservation, and effortless grace in the outfield. Best of all, J to the motha fuckin D put to rest the horrible memory of his predecessor Trot "I am a crook" Nixon. The next player to man Pesky's Pole will have some massive shoes to fill on the field and in the hearts' of Red Sox nation.

Soooo, about the only thing true in that opener is that J.D. is on the way out. I know he was never a fan favorite, but I have shown before that he was actually pretty valuable to this team until 2011 both on offense and defense. His personality may never have been a fit for this town, but the J.D. Drew of 2007-10 will be hard to replace. Today, I'll look at these potential replacements compared to Right Fielders of Red Sox past. This is actually a fairly strong field of players in this year's weak market.

Save Terry

Do not get rid of Terry Francona. I repeat, do not get rid of Terry Francona. At least not yet.

The worst collapse in Major League history just came to its horrible conclusion less than 36 hours ago. The wound is still fresh. Gangrene hasn’t even set in yet. Of course, since this is Boston, a lot of idiot media members demand a scape goat. In order to fight through all the bull shit, they have to come up with sensational solutions. Whoever yells the loudest, or comes up with the stupidest shit will ultimately be the one to get the most notoriety.

Trade Deadline Thoughts

It Wasn't Meant To Be

Since the trade deadline is the time for wacky rumors and unfulfilled promises, let’s start with the top 3 players traded at the deadline, all of whom the Red Sox (or at least the fans) had some interest in. I am talking about Ubaldo Jimenez, Carlos Beltran and Hunter Pence. First of all, there was no way the Sox could have topped any of the packages that Colorado, New York and Houston received for these players. Drew Pomeranz, Zach Wheeler and Jared Cosart are all projected to be number 1 or 2 starters in this league and all would have ranked as the Red Sox top prospect. The current top pitcher in the Red Sox system is Anthony Ranaudo and he is not nearly as well-regarded as these 3 guys. Colorado and Houston also each received a second prospect (Alex White and John Singleton, respectively) who would have ranked on par with Ranaudo and Will Middlebrooks. Add in the fact that I don’t think Boston needed Beltran and Pence and I can go to sleep at night being ok with the fact that the Sox didn’t get any of these players.

Trade Deadline Targets: Catcher

The title for this post is a little bit of a red herring. You will not see any catching trade targets in this post. Well you will, briefly, but not for the purpose of listing people the Red Sox may acquire. You see, after a horrible start to the season in which no Red Sox catcher homered until May 15^th, both Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Jason Varitek are hitting above average for the season.

In case you have forgotten how bad things were with the Red Sox catching position back in May, here is an excerpt from my Week 5 Observations post back on May 10:

Red Sox catchers. If you combine the OPS’s of Jarrod Saltalamacchia(.522) and Jason Varitek (.466), they would still rank just 6^th in all of baseball. Salty has allowed the most stolen bases in the AL and Varitek ranks to third last in caught stealing percentage of all AL catchers with at least 15 starts. We are supposed to believe that Varitek has played a large role in Beckett’s and Dice K’s turn around and apparently Salty is getting much better at calling games. But when do we see some tangible production from this crew? Varitek is hanging on because he’s the captain and Salty is holding it down because he still has promise and is the same age as Varitek when it clicked for him. This is all well and good, and I can live with low production from this spot on offense, but it appears neither are doing anything well, which is just depressing.

Mark Twain taught us that tragedy plus time equals comedy so feel free to laugh at that early season depression. As of this writing, Salty’s On Base Plus Slugging (OPS) is .758 and Tek’s is .741. Combined, Red Sox catchers rank 7^th in all of baseball in OPS and they are closer to 2^nd than they are to 12^th. And if you put stock in this sort of thing, the two have helped guide a rag tag bunch of starting pitching replacements to a respectable 15^th in runs allowed in baseball. It seems pretty clear to me that catching is no longer a problem for this team this year, and that is a very, very good thing.

The trade market for the catching position is about as thread bare as Oscar Bluth’s remaining pair of pants. Former General Manager Jim Bowden lists as his top available catchers Rod Barajas, Dioner Navarro, Ivan Rodriguez and Jose Molina. Of the first three, Rodriguez has the highest average (.214) and on base percentage (.276) this season and Barajas has the highest slugging percentage (.370). Molina is having a strong season in limited playing time, but at 36 years old he has a career .286 OBP so I would not expect his strong start to continue.

The fact of the matter is there are not a lot of great hitting catchers out there. Besides the insanely underrated Brian McCann (6 All Star games in his 6 full seasons and he gets very little mention as a potential Hall of Famer why?), the rest of the top performing catchers (by OPS+*) are a strange brew. Detroit’s Alex Avila had “nepotism” written all over him last year, but this year is the best hitting catcher in the American League. Ramon Hernandez of Cincinnati is a former All Star, but he is 35 and shares time with Ryan Hannigan. Carlos Santana spends 1/3 of his time wearing a first baseman’s mitt for Cleveland. Miguel Montero, Buster Posey, Wilson Ramos and Matt Wieters (ranked 5^th-8^th, respectively, in OPS+) represent the next tier of established catchers in or approaching their prime behind McCann. Then sitting 9^th is our own Salty (Tek is 13^th ) ahead of recent or current All Stars Yadier Molina, Carlos Ruiz, Geovanny Soto and the cold as ice Russell Martin.

*OPS+ is the percent above or below average (average represented by a value of 100) a batter's OPS is compared to his position with adjustments for playing in a hitter's or pitcher's park.

Should either of the current catchers falter or get hurt, the Sox should still be all set. Down in Pawtuckett, 23-year-old Ryan Lavarnway is establishing himself as a legitimate player and pulling away as the Sox top catching prospect. Since his promotion to AAA in June, he has hit .381/.451/.729 in 133 plate appearances. He could definitely use some more time in the minors, but in a pinch he should serve as a more than adequate compliment to the remaining catcher. For more on Lavarnway, here is prospect maven John Sickels: 

All told, Lavarnway is a career .284/.375/.509 hitter in 320 minor league games, with no deterioration in his performance as he's moved up the ladder. Indeed, if anything he's improved, easing scout concerns about a long swing by showing power to all fields. He has decent plate discipline and his strikeout rate has actually declined as he's moved up. Although he won't win batting titles in the majors, I expect that he'll carry the power forward. The serious question has always been defense, and while Lavarnway has spent much of his career as a DH, his glove has improved...Although Lavarnway will never win gold gloves, if he maintains his current progress he can be at least adequate defensively, while providing considerable power on the offensive side. We should see him in Fenway later this year, and he could take a larger role on the major league roster in 2012.

Sum it all up and there is a great chance that Boston will be all set at catcher for the rest of this season and possibly for years to come. Salty seems to be cashing in on some of his immense promise, Tek is having a bit of a resurgence and Lavarnway appears to be the catcher of the future. Good times behind the dish for the Sox.

Trade Deadline Targets: Right Fielders

Mike Cameron telling Carlos Beltran that Boston is a scary place

It’s a walk-off! It took 16 innings and almost 6 hours, but the Red Sox scored a 1-0 victory over the Rays last night to capture the series win. As exciting as this marathon was, the game highlighted one of the Sox’ most glaring holes, outfield depth. Last night, Red Sox outfielders combined to hit 0-17 (with 5 walks). Granted, only 3 members on the whole team got hits and Jacoby Ellsbury, one of the team’s top performers this year, accounted for 8 of those 17 hitless at bats, but it was another night of poor performances from a group that appeared to be, at worst, league average before the start of the year. The team will get some help tonight when Carl Crawford returns from injury, but they could probably still use more reinforcements. Crawford (.659 OPS), J.D. Drew (.637), Darnell McDonald (.520) and Mike Cameron (.477 and since released) have all performed far below expectations. Crawford is in the first year of a massive 7 year deal so he is not going anywhere, but the team could look to add a starting right fielder or at least a right-handed-hitting outfielder to compliment the all-lefty group of Crawford, Ellsbury and Drew. Today we will look at the options that Theo Epstein might consider over the next few weeks and place them in groups near and dear to my heart, burgers.

Brasserie Jo's Grand Jo Burger topped with crispy pork belly and braised beef cheeks (Hall of Famer, wicked expensive, but it’s only money)

Carlos Beltran, Mets

I had this burger this weekend for the first time. It was the best burger I have ever had. Though it cost almost $20, it was worth every penny. It was a beef burger topped with pork belly and beef cheeks (I still have no clue what either of these are), lettuce, tomato and cheddar cheese because I asked for it. And that was it. No ketchup, mayo, mustard or any of the crazy condiments we use at Sexy Burger. It was simple and sophisticated all at once and it almost made me cry with its incredible taste.

Beltran is the crown jewel of the outfield trade market. This potential Hall of Famer is having a resurgent (.893 OPS) and, more importantly, healthy season in the final year of his huge contract. Like the Grand Jo, Beltran has always played the game with a quiet elegance. He has a smooth, but powerful swing. He glides after balls in the outfield. He is the most efficient base stealer of all time. He plays without a lot of the flash of lesser players. As a switch hitter he would be a great fit for this lineup, probably behind David Ortiz. He would also push Drew to a bench role or maybe, as the Boston media hopes, into retirement. Best of all, it may not take much besides picking up his full salary to get him away from the cash-strapped Mets. Even though the team is surprisingly at .500, they are still miles behind the Phillies and Braves for the division and Wild Card leads, respectively, so they should be sellers at the deadline. Would a package of Josh Reddick or Ryan Kalish and Kyle Weiland or Michael Bowden be enough to get this done if the Sox pick up the rest of his salary?

In-N-Out Burger’s Animal Style Burger (potential franchise players that would be very difficult for Boston to acquire)

Matt Kemp, Dodgers; Andre Ethier, Dodgers; Hunter Pence, Astros

In-N-Out is a franchised burger chain that is almost exclusively located on the west coast. People who have had an In-N-Out burger, particularly the Animal Style, swear it is the best franchise burger they have ever had. Since there are no locations east of Texas, it would be very inconvenient for people from Boston to get this burger.

All three players in this category would be franchise players for any team that didn’t already have about 4 or 5 like the Red Sox. They are each signed beyond this year so they wouldn’t just be rental players. Because of this, they would all be extremely difficult to acquire. Kemp is the best and youngest of the group. He plays center for the Dodgers right now, but is much better suited for an outfield corner. He is on pace to join the 40/40 club (40 homers and steals) this year. He would only become available if the Dodgers decide they need to have a fire sale because of the ownership mess. Of this group, Ethier is probably the worst hitter, worst fielder, worst baserunner and the oldest and hits left handed so he may not be a fit. However, he is a good hitter and great friends with Dustin Pedroia (they went to college together) so he will always be connected with the Red Sox. Finally, Pence is a very good hitter and decent fielder. He is also signed the longest (through 2013). I think he has become a little overrated, but he is definitely a good piece. He probably would be the most difficult to acquire because the Astros vastly overrate their own players and tend to hold on too long. I think acquiring any of these players would take at least Jose Iglesias and Anthony Ranaudo and potentially even Clay Buchholz, so I don’t think we see any of these guys in Boston this year unless things go from bad to worse in Los Angeles.

Five Guys Cheeseburger (decent, but if you are expecting All Star performance you will be disappointed)

Jeff Francouer, Royals; Melky Cabrera, Royals; Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs; Michael Cuddyer, Twins

Every player on this list is either a former All Star (Fukudome, Cuddyer) or a player who has received so much unwarranted praise you would think they were an All Star (Francouer, Cabrera). All are about average players having pretty good years so they would definitely be useful to the Red Sox. Francouer would be the perfect platoon partner for Drew as he crushes lefties. Cabrera would be one of the better defensive options (he’s really bad in center but would probably play well in right) and a third outfield stolen base threat. Fukudome would fit the Sox mold the most as an on base machine and very good defender (though he is a lefty). Cuddyer has excellent versatility with his ability to play all four corners and second base and has the biggest power in this group. But just like a burger from Five Guys, these players may all be a little more expensive than they are worth. The Royals are notorious for over-valuing their veterans; Fukudome is on the last year of a very big contract; the Twins are actually creeping back into the playoff race so they may be reluctant to give up their All Star. Fukudome could probably be had for a lower tier prospect like Weiland if the Sox take on his salary. The Royals and Twins would probably start off by asking for Iglesias or Ranaudo, but they may settle for a package of Reddick and Bowden.

Wendy’s Jr. Cheeseburger Deluxe (Value Menu options; some value but like fitting a square burger on a round bun)

David DeJesus, A’s; Josh Willingham, A’s; Luke Scott, Orioles; Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins; Ryan Ludwick, Padres

I don’t think anyone on this list should play full time over J.D. Drew, but some could be good platoon partners.  DeJesus had an excellent season last year that was cut short to an unfortunate injury. Whether that injury is still bothering him or Oakland’s huge park is playing a role, he has had a horrible season this year. He is still a good defender but as a lefty bat he wouldn’t be a great fit for this team. Willingham is a right handed power bat who has had some of his power sapped this year probably from Oakland. Though his bat would look nice, I don’t think the former catcher would be able to handle Fenway’s big right field. Same goes for Scott, who should have been Baltimore’s every day DH this year before they got starry-eyed and threw a bunch of money at aging Vladimir Guerrero. Bonifacio is fast and versatile on defense, but (current 15 game hitting streak notwithstanding) can’t hit a lick. Ludwick has experienced a steep decline since being traded to San Diego last year and it is not just in home games as his home/away OPS are only .003 different. All of these players could probably be had for some cash and a player to be named later, but none would really provide the Sox anything they can’t get in house.

What the Red Sox should do

Trade for the Cubs’ Reed Johnson (I didn’t include Johnson on any of the above lists because I couldn’t think of a burger that is cheap and underrated). As one of Drew’s biggest defenders the last 5 years, it pains me to say that he is probably done. The team clearly needs to move on. In his place I would give Reddick the majority of the playing time to see what the team has. He appears to be a very capable defender and if he shows that he is over matched at the plate, the Sox offense is still the best in baseball even without a good hitting right fielder. To help ease the rigors of playing every day in the Major Leagues, Boston should look for a right handed hitting platoon partner. Johnson is having his best year at the plate this season and has always killed lefties. Though the Cubs would prefer to trade Fukudome or Alphonso Soriano, the Red Sox should be able to get Johnson with some cash and a mediocre prospect. Also, they need to release Darnell McDonald immediately. He should never see another at bat with this team. Seeing him batting fifth on the interleague road trip was an embarrassment to this team.

What the Red Sox will do

I have no friggin’ clue. This is a tough position to decipher because of Theo’s love for Drew. My guess is that they get a right handed option off the bench like Johnson, but keep Drew as the starter against righties and move Reddick to the 5^th outfield role. But I could see the Mets getting desperate with Beltran, the Dodgers getting desperate with their players and Billy Beane really working the phones to unload his underperforming players. Desperation produces unpredictable results so for all I know we could see Jason Bay clumsily patrolling right when all is said and done. Either way, I’d say this is the position most likely to see an addition, I just don’t know what caliber.