2011 NFL Draft: 2nd & 3rd Round Thoughts

What to do, what to do? If you’re Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots, the answer is, well, just about anything you want. Currently the Pats have 5 picks tonight. I say currently because it is all but assured that this will change. In Round 2 they have #’s 1 (33 overall), 24 (56), and 28 (60). In Round 3, its #’s 10 (74) and 28 (92). Talk about options. The first round went just about perfectly to leave their first pick, #33, with maximum value. The early run on QB’s last night left on two top signal callers (Dalton & Mallett) with a number of QB needy teams who will need to move up if they want to grab one. Teams potentially looking to trade up for a QB – Cincy, Cleveland, Arizona, San Fran, Washington and Oakland. With QB needy Buffalo sitting at #34, this is ideal for the Pats. Apparently Cincy even tried to trade up to #32 with Green Bay to take Dalton last night. There are also several highly rated players (Bowers, Reed) still available for one reason or another, that New England could either select, or find other trade partners for. Of the 5 picks tonight, I would guess that four players are chosen, with one pick being moved into next year.

While last night may have left many fans disappointed, it addressed one major area of need – Offensive Tackle. Tonight’s selections should address the remaining positions – OLB, DE, RB and OG. I was planning on putting together a list of players I thought the Pats would select until I came across ESPN’s Mike Reiss’s 2^nd Round Mock Draft. He hit the three players I was targeting for the Patriots to select:

#33 - Jabaal Sheard (OLB, Pitt): I covered him earlier this week and still think he’s the right fit for an OLB in the Pats 3-4. He has the ability to move to DE in sub-packages. While Reiss is projecting him at #33, I foresee a trade with one of the QB needy teams mentioned above looking to leap-frog Buffalo and Cincy to grab Dalton. My best guess is Arizona (6^th pick of 2^nd round) or Washington (9^th).

#56 - Allen Bailey (DE, Miami): Also covered here this week. Earlier than I projected, but since the depth at DE is gone, it’s the right idea to take him here.

#60 - Mikel Leshoure (RB, Illinois): Reiss, Kiper and McShay all project the Pats taking Leshoure here, and while I agree; that probably means it won’t happen. He’s a better fit for the Pats than Ingram, given his superior pass blocking ability (meaning he can play all 3 downs), is a one-cut type runner that the Pats love (like Benny) and bigger than Ingram.

Here are some thoughts on other names of note that are options tonight:

Da’Quan Bowers (DE, Clemson)– Bowers was initially projected to go in the top 10, but a recent knee injury has scared teams away from him. Somewhat reminds me of Sergio Kindle last year. He’s an immensely talented player, and someone will take the injury risk for his tremendous upside early in Round 2. I don’t see that team being the Patriots. Shocking I know. But Bowers (6’3”, 280lbs) is a bit small to play DE in the Pats 3-4, and doesn’t project well at OLB. Plus knee injuries are something they tend to shy away from. Tempting, but I don’t see it.

Brooks Reed (DE/OLB, Arizona) – Reed was discussed here earlier this week, and is now in the range where he could be worth the pick. Mel Kiper Jr. now has the Pats taking him with #33, but the more I read about him, the less I’m sold. Jerry Thornton’s take (linked yesterday) sums it up pretty well.

Akeem Ayers (OLB, UCLA) – Also covered here earlier this week, but I still think he’s too small.

Justin Houston – Most likely pick if they don’t go with Sheard.

Dream scenario trade that is based off of absolutely nothing and probably extremely unrealistic, but I figured it would be fun to try:

New England to Washington:

#33 overall pick (1^st pick, Round 2)

#74 overall pick (10^th pick, Round 3)

#125 overall pick (28^th pick, Round 4)

Washington to New England:

#41 overall pick (9^th pick, Round 2)

#49 overall pick (17^th pick, Round 2)

Washington gets Dalton and picks up 3^rd and 4^th round picks for this year (of which they have none). New England picks up and extra 2^nd Round pick, giving them 4 for this year. The Pats use #41 and still get Sheard, the player they want. After that, they use two of the other picks on the players mentioned above, and trade another into a 2012 1^st Round pick, giving them three 2012 1^st Round picks. Like I said, unrealistic, but man would that be sweet.

All I know is that it should be an awfully exciting night from a Patriots perspective. The only problem is that Roger Goodell decided it would be a good idea to have the draft on a Friday night. Apparently he doesn’t go out. But I do; so hopefully there is a more dedicated writer out there than I so I can catch up on all of Belichick’s moves in the morning.

2011 NFL Draft: 1st Round Reaction

For Patriots fans, last nights’ draft went as they always do. Most enter with great expectations, hoping for sexy names at flashy positions. This year, with two first round picks, expectations were even more inflated than normal. A top-tier pass rusher? Heisman winner Mark Ingram? Needless to say, the first round ended in typical Patriots fashion. To the dismay of many, there was no Clay Matthews 2.0, no big names, and the Patriots even traded away the pick that was used to select the highly coveted Ingram. What we are left with – a mountain of a left tackle to protect Brady’s blind side; an extra 1^st round pick for next year, and an army of frustrated fans who will never learn. After the Solder pick was announced, the texts began to fly in – “What the hell???”, “Are you f’in kidding?”, “Who?”, etc.. Apparently my friends don’t read Sexy Boston Sports frequently enough. After trying to justify the pick, one of my friends sent the following: “You are the biggest Patriots apologist on Earth”. While that may be true, it is hard to argue with the selection of a monster of a LT to add to and Offensive Line in desperate need of a youth movement. In regards to Ingram, he is just not the type of player the Pats will select. They only choose player in the first round who they will get maximum production out of. Talented as he may be, Ingram lacks the pass protection abilities to play on 3^rd downs, and the team cannot justify the expensive cap figure that a first round RB commands. I have no doubt that Ingram will be a solid Pro, but this team has always run the ball very effectively without big name backs; and they will continue to in the future thanks to the big guys up front like Solder.

The only disappointing aspect of the night for me came after the trade with New Orleans. Once I heard the details of the trade (#28 for #56 and a 2012 #1 – an absolutely awesome deal) - and looked at the remaining players on the board; I was ecstatic. Only 5 picks until the Pats were back on the clock, and both Mo Wilkerson and Cameron Heyward were still on the board. Could we possibly get either of the two best DE’s for our system at #33 overall. Mind you, both of these guys were projected to go in the Top 20. A top tier tackle at #17, one of the best DE’s, plus the haul from the New Orleans trade? Too good to be true. Then the Jets and Steelers had to go be their typical D-bag selves and mess everything up. This left a bit of a sour taste after an otherwise exciting night. That said, there is still plenty of talent available, and tonight will tell the story of the 2011 Draft for the Patriots. Check back later for predictions on Rounds 2 & 3.

A few random thoughts from Round 1 worth mentioning:

- I absolutely LOVED the boo’s Goodell was greeted with last night. Go away Roger.

- Cam Newton is not and will never be a franchise QB. I have no idea why Carolina would take him there. Why guarantee a guy $50+ million who MIGHT be good? Give a sure thing like Patrick Peterson or Von Miller any day.

- By far the most shocking moment of the night to me was the Falcons trading up to select Julio Jones. No that they did it, but how much they gave up. 2011 1^st, 2^nd & 4^th round picks plus 2012 1^st and 4^th? Cleveland couldn’t have said yes fast enough. GM Thomas Dimitroff started with the Patriots, and that is about as un-Patriot like a move as you could make. Especially for a guy who’s first 3 minutes of highlights ESPN showed were him dropping wide-open passes (he’ll be nasty, but still). I guess they must have been blown away by the results from his new Under Armour Shirt.

- How about the two newly formed scariest young DL combos in a long time: Houston DE’s Mario Williams and JJ Watt and Detroit DT’s Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley. Wow.

Hastily Put Together Last Minute Draft Thoughts

I wanted to put together previews for all positions, but just didn’t have enough time so here are some quick thoughts for tonight:

- First and foremost be ready for the Pats to trade. A lot. Just read this. There is a negative percent chance that they’ll make both picks in their assigned spots. I expect the Pats to only make one pick tonight, moving the other one either into a combo of picks in the later rounds, next years draft, or most likely – both. When a player you’re hoping for starts to fall down the draft and the Pats are about to be on the clock – don’t get excited and think they’ll pick him. They won’t. They’ll trade back. Be like a Buddhist Monk, just wait and wait and wait some more.

- Whenever the Patriots make a pick tonight, it will be a Defensive Player. If they somehow make two, the other will be an offensive lineman.

- I’ve been hearing a lot of talk about the Pats possibly taking Ingram or Locker. That’s just silly. C’mon people. Ingram wasn’t even the best RB on his own team last year, and why would they waste a pick on a guy who (hopefully) wouldn’t play for 5+ years in Locker. Also, Lockers’ biggest knock is accuracy – only the 2^nd most important trait the Pats look for in their QB’s.

- The “We Want Football!!” chants Goodell came out to were awesome. I hope he gets booed all night.

- The earlier the run on QB’s the better. It only gives more value to the picks that Belichick will inevitably be trading.

- Read the following links for position projections. They’re done by Jerry Thornton of Barstool Sports, and he does an excellent job. He highlights many of the players I planned on talking about, and his intro in the “Guards” preview is spot on:

o Tackles

o Guards

o D-Backs

o Running Backs

- If the Pats were to pick in their two spots (which won’t happen), I would say OT Nate Solder at #17 and DE Cameron Heyward at #28.

- Don’t get frustrated. Remember that you are watching one of the all time greats at working the draft. Enjoy it.

2011 NFL Draft Preview: Outside Linebackers

Outside Linebackers

The Patriots need a pass rusher. I could toss out a whole bunch of stats from the past few years, I could quote hundreds of analysts discussing the topic, or point out examples from specific games last year; but why bother. The Patriots need a pass rusher, it’s as simple as that.

Position need:

Very high

Prototype:

6’2” – 6’4”, 255-270lbs., freakishly athletic. Way too fast and agile for their size; these guys need to do it all rush the passer, drop into coverage, set the edge in the run game. Versatility is essential for an OLB in the Pats system. OLB’s must be able to do everything mentioned above when in the Base 3-4, and be capable of playing Rush DE when the defense switches to sub-packages in passing situations. Given how pass happy the NFL has become, the Patriots spent nearly as much time in sub-packages last year as they did in their base D. Look for someone who has experience dropping into underneath zone coverage at the college level.

Draft Depth:

Lots of quality pass rushing DE’s, but most are better fit for the 4-3 and don’t have the versatility required for the Pats system. Most of the players that fit the prototype are rated as 2^nd-3^rd round players.

Guys likely to be gone:

Von Miller (A&M), Robert Quinn (UNC)

Fits but not the pick:

Brooks Reed (Arizona)- 6’2”, 263lbs. A guy with a non-stop motor and the work ethic that fits the Pats mold. A team captain, and has a huge passion for the game. Noted as one of the better pass rushers in the draft, but struggles some at setting the edge against the run. The fact that he was once a teammate of Gronk is almost enough to sell me on him. Seems to lack the agility to play in space at OLB. Also, projections have him going in the mid/late first round, whereas his skills seem to be more in line with a 2^nd round player. I would love to see him end up on the team, just not in the first round.

Justin Houston (UGA)- 6’3”, 270lbs. I’ve seen a few people project Houston to the Pats, and it’s easy to believe given Belichick’s affinity for SEC defenders. Another top notch pass rusher who struggles against the run. Projected late first rounder with 2^nd round value.

Akeem Ayers (UCLA)- 6’2”, 254lbs. A bit small, but still an effective run defender, proving capable of setting the edge. Has plenty of experience in pass coverage and does well, but is not an elite pass rusher. Also, has a less physical style than the Pats typically look for on D. Was a Team Captain.

Mid-round Options:

There are a lot, so I will just list a few that I wouldn’t be surprised to see end up in a Patriots uniform should they wait to select one:

Greg Romeus (PITT)

Ricky Elmore (Arizona)

Cliff Matthews (S. Car)

Sam Acho (TEX)Jeremy Beal (OU)

The pick:

Jabaal Sheard (PITT)- 6’3”, 265lbs. A team captain that fits the prototype size requirements that the Pats look for. Noted as one of the top pass rushers in the draft; relying on relentlessness, strong hands and a wide array of moves. Not a great run defended, but does an adequate job of sealing off blockers and setting the edge, which is key to run defense in a 3-4 scheme. Noted as having excellent instinct and play recognition skills. Has proved effective at dropping into zone coverage, and seems to be the all around player the Pats will be looking for. Look for Sheard to be picked with one of the two 2^nd round picks. Also, saved an old lady from a burning building when he was in high school so he’s got that going for him; which is nice.

2011 NFL Draft Preview: Defensive Ends

Defensive End

The date was September 6^th, 2009- the Sunday of Labor Day weekend. I was sitting at a diner in Hyannis with a group of friends recounting ridiculous stories of the past weekend (people falling off docks and into the harbor for a late night swim, girls kicking through glass doors to get into the hotel, etc) when my phone rang. It was Papa O. I assumed it was the standard call to make sure I was still alive after a weekend adventure with the idiots I call my friends. Nope.

“Did you hear the Pats traded Seymour” he asked. Whaaaaaaa? I shared the news with the table and started getting chewed out as if I was the one who traded him. So much for don’t shoot the messenger. How could they trade Big Rich? One of the unquestioned leaders of the team; a 5 time Pro Bowl selection (and 3x 1^st team All-Pro); was gone? You know it’s bad when even the girls at the table are upset that a Defensive End was traded. I can’t even think of the male equivalent to that – being upset over what dress Jessica Biel wore to the Oscars? Outraged at which golddigger got voted off of The Bachelor? I don’t know, think of something funny and laugh. Anyways-

After finding out the details – a 2011 first round pick (from the Raiders!! #1 overall???), and the unlikelihood that Rich was going to re-sign – I felt a lot better about the trade. But since that day, there has been a MASSIVE (6’6”, 310lb.) hole at RDE. Gerard Warren and co. played well last year, but there is an obvious need evidenced by the fact that NT Vince Wilfork was forced to move to DE against certain opponents. And now Warren is a Free Agent. Our other Warren –Ty - is coming off of hip surgery and has seen a decrease in production the past few years. Jarvis Green was forced to leave via Free Agency to make sure there were enough letters for BenJarvus Green-Ellis’ jersey. While there is good depth along the D-line, it’s time to find a top-tier anchor so Vince can stay at nose and the linebackers can roam free.

Position need: Moderate

Prototype: A behemoth (6’3”-6’6”, 290+ pounds) who can take on double teams and effectively two-gap when in the Base 3-4. Ideal player can move inside to DT (both for 3 and 4 man lines) on passing downs and pressure QB from inside/collapse the pocket.

Draft Depth: Analysts are raving about the depth of DE’s in this years class, but keep in mind that many of those players are in the 250-280lb range. Players of this size would play OLB in the Pats base 3-4 and will be covered later. I don’t see much depth for the above prototype. Belichick will either be selecting a DE with one of the two 1^st round picks, or wait for developmental prospect in the mid-late rounds.

Guys likely to be gone: It’s unlikely that Belichick will trade up in the first round, so don’t get your hopes up for these guys who should be gone before #17- J.J. Watt (Wisc), Cam Jordan (Cal)

Fit but not the pick: Mo Wilkerson (Temple)- The 6’4”, 315lb. beast has the ideal physical make-up the Pats target and is very athletic for his size. Team Captain in 2010. Has experience playing both DE and DT. Excellent run defender and can effectively rush the passer from both DL spots. However, there are concerns about his work ethic in the weight room.

I was ready to pencil Wilkerson in as my pick until I started reading pre-Combine reports. He was projected as a late 3^rd-early 4^th round pick. The Pats never seem to go for these “fast-risers”, and judging by most mock drafts, they’d have to take him at #17, which seems a bit rich for a player with some developing ahead of him.

Mid-round Option: Allen Bailey (It’s all about The U)- A 6’3”, 285lbs. physical freak. He grew up on an island off the coast of Georgia, with a population of 80 people. I know that isn’t football related, but what the hell? He also once killed an alligator with a shovel- badass, sign him up.

Belichick was at Miami’s Pro Day and most likely spent time reviewing film with him. He was a Team Captain and scouts rave about his work ethic. Played both DE and DT in college, and is stout against the run. Has less than average instincts, evidenced by slow play diagnosis. Lacks great hand technique. If Belichick passes on taking a DE early, look for Bailey in the late 3^rd round.

The pick: Cameron Heyward (THE Ohio State University)- 6’4”, 295lbs.. Sound run defender, with the size and strength to take on double teams and anchor on the outside. Good, not great pass rusher but relentless worker and can play DE or DT. Great instincts/play recognition. Read the following Scouts’ Inc. description for Heyward under “Intangibles” and tell me if it sounds familiar:

“Humble leader that deflects praise to teammates. A pace-setter both on game day and during practices. Was awarded Jack Stephenson Award (outstanding defensive lineman) by coaches in 2009 and team's outstanding first-year player on defense in 2007. Father is former NFL RB Craig 'Ironhead' Heyward.”

Sounds like a Patriot to me.

2011 NFL Draft Preview

Ok people, time to get things straight around here. Everyone, myself included, loves Sexy Boston Sports - and XMark and Odo are great writers – but honestly, how much can you read about baseball or Odo’s golfing failures? We all know there is only one sport that you truly care about. As a matter of fact, news about how they might NOT even play football this year is still more exciting than your average Sox game. More importantly, there is one team within football that encompasses all that is good in the world. Don’t get me wrong, I love the C’s, B’s and Sox; but football had me at hello – so I’m here to talk about the Pats.

I emailed XMark about two weeks ago to ask for this lucrative position, and he was nice enough to oblige – but I had no idea where to begin. My plan was to put together a piece on “The Brady 6” documentary; which by the way is required reading if you wish to join the list of my adoring readers; but I got busy. Plus, I’ll be doing plenty of fawning over The GOAT (that’s Greatest Of All Time for you rookies) in this space once football returns so I’ll spare you. For now.

Seeing how the draft is about a week away, I figured I should start my writing career by trying to do the impossible – predict who Bill Belichick will draft. I’m not going to do a mock draft; you have asshats like Mel Kiper Jr. for that. The plan is to give you a roadmap of what to expect so I don’t get 20 livid phone calls when the Pats draft another “Gunner” (that’s what everyone was labeling McCourty after he was picked last year if you weren’t aware). I’m going to start here by reviewing each position and determine the need/likelihood of drafting a player from that position. Throughout next week (for some reason I don’t see myself caring enough to do a post over the weekend), I’ll put together some possible targets for each position, and when I think the mastermind will be picking one. So here we go:

Offense:

QB: With the best QB ever signed through 2014 and a serviceable back-up in Brian Hoyer, there is no real reason for the Pats to draft a QB other than to challenge Hoyer.

Need- None

RB: There has been a lot of talk about the Pat’s picking a RB with one of their first 3 picks (specifically Mark Ingram), but I don’t buy it. Belichick has traditionally favored backs like Antwain Smith, Corey Dillion, Fred Taylor, etc.. Also, the success of Benny/Woodhead has shown that the team doesn’t need a big name (read: expensive) back to have an effective run game. As a matter of fact, they ranked 9th in the league last year (12^th in ’098^th in ’08) while relying on the aforementioned undrafted duo. & Belichick has only drafted 6 RB’s in his 11 years with the team. I think the team will address the position via free agency, with a possible mid-to-late round selection in the draft.

Need- Moderate

WR: One of the harder positions to project, as there is plenty of depth, but the top options (Branch & Welker) are aging and only signed through next year. The team clearly needs to groom replacements, but drafting WR’s has not been Belichick’s strong suit. Taylor Price has me excited and Brandon Tate has shown flashes of talent, but how does the team project them? Another option to keep in mind considering we have about 200 picks in this draft – Belichick has never been shy about pulling off Draft day trades (Randy/Wes) for proven veterans at WR.

Need- Low to Moderate

TE: After hitting big with FA signing Algernon Darius Crumpler as well as draft picks Gronk and Hernandez last year, they won’t be drafting a TE.

Need- None

OT: How early they pick one will depend on if they resign Matt Light, but at least one will be drafted. It also depends on if the team views Sea-bass Vollmer as a future LT or if they see him more fit for his current role on the right side.

Need- Moderate to High

OG/C: The interior offensive line is the biggest area of need in my opinion. The always underrated Stephen Neal retired. Mankins is franchised again, but is very unlikely to be back with the team. Center Dan Koppen is aging and FA after 2012. Dan Connolly was a pleasant surprise last year, and while he may have him beat as a kick returner, he is not the beast that Mankins is. Look for one G early, a C middle rounds and another G late.

Need- Very High

Defense:

DL: Big Daddy Vince is the absolute man in the middle. I should write a whole article on how important he was last year. There are some question marks after him though. Will Ty Warren be the player he once was after last year’s hip surgery? Will their best interior rusher, Mike Wright, ever return from his concussion? How many roster spots will be available with so many young prospects (Brace/Pryor/Love/Deaderick)? There is still there need for a big-bodied RDE to fill Seymour’s vacancy – I see one DE picked early and not much other than that.

Need- Low to Moderate

ILB: This position is pretty well set – Mayo is one of the best in the league; Spikes is an HGH-fueled run stuffing machine; Gary “fastest linebacker at the combine” Guyton (copyright: The Ham) is replaceable, but good enough in pass coverage; and the immortal Dane Fletcher is a solid backup/special teamer.

Need- None

OLB: This is the area that all of the analysts are calling for, and it’s hard to disagree with them. Jermaine Cunningham was impressive last year when healthy. Bob Ninkovich aka Mike Vrabel 2.0 is almost as solid as his beard, but there is room for an upgrade. Tully Banta-Cain and his one ineffective pass rush move (the $4.5 million bull-rush) need to be cut. Eric “New Guy” (copyright: Landies & Chappy) Moore did nothing but make plays in his short time with the team last year, but can he keep it up in Year 2? This is a huge need, and I’ll go into much more detail what to look for next week.

Need- Very High

CB: McCourty and Bodden make for the best 1-2 combo at corner the Pats have had in many years. Kyle Arrington played well for most of last year and is nice 3^rd option. Darius Butler played well for parts of last year and terribly for others. Being a fellow UConn alumn, I’m prone to cut him some slack; but you have to figure he’ll be under much scrutiny this year and fighting for a roster spot. Jonathan Wilhite is my whipping boy. Every year I manage to find a player that I hate, and blame them for anything & everything that goes wrong. Wilhite is that man. He always manages to be in good position against his receiver, but for some reason he just reallllllly loves to watch them catch passes. It drives me insane to watch. That coupled with his $1.5M salary next year leaves me hoping he will be cut. The only real problem at Corner is that Patrick Chung was forced to play a lot of slot corner last year –he did a good job, but he is our best safety and belongs there. This needs to be remedied, be it through a mid-round draft pick, or Bulter progressing into the player he has the skills to become.

Need- Low to Moderate

S: This is the position I think the Pats may surprise people with and select one earlier than expected. For what it’s worth, Patrick Chung has developed into one of my favorite players to watch. He’s a relentlessly hard worker, and flies around the field at all times. The other starting position has been a battle between James Sanders (fast forward to the 1:50 mark) & Brandon Merriweather. Merriweather enters the last year of his contract, and even though he somehow made the Pro Bowl last year (I have literally no idea how, he was only the 3^rd best safety on HIS OWN TEAM, not the whole AFC), is very unlikely to be re-signed. While I would hate to lose his comedic value, I would love to see the Pats trade Merriweather and draft a ball-hawking Free Safety to compliment Chung. It might not be the most likely scenario, but a girl can dream can’t she?

Need - Low to Moderate

To Recap:

- Football is better than every other sport, and Sexy Boston Sports now has me to cover it

- Watch “The Brady 6”

- The most important positions for the Patriots to draft are – OLB, Guard, Offensive Tackle, DE

- It's now 5 pm on Friday, go get drunk

Love,

Landies