Week 1 (and a half) observations

• Last I checked the sky has not fallen. Despite the 0-6 start (now 2-7), up is still up, dogs and cats still don’t get along and America is still the world’s greatest super power with a thriving economy. Well 2 out of 3 ain’t bad. The point is, things are not as bad as they seem. The team got over its mental block with the first win Friday and then took their first series of the season Sunday with a commanding win over their rivals. 0-6 is not a fun hole to dig out of, but it is by no means an impossible one. Especially when we have the following team coming to town…
• The Rays. They could seriously be in trouble. With Sam Fuld (who?) leading off, Dan Johnson batting cleanup and Felipe Lopez (who the Sox couldn’t even get free agent compensation for because nobody wanted to give him a big league deal this offseason) batting sixth, this offense could be really bad, even when Evan Longoria comes back from his injury. The whole thought that maybe the Rays could still be good this year hinged on a still strong starting rotation and the hope that two aging bats could find the fountain of youth enough to passably replace the departures of Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena. Johnny Damon has looked as bad as ever to this point, and then of course there is…
• Manny Ramirez. We all knew this guy was dumb. His antics in Boston were legendary and loveable almost until the end. Then he quit on the team one too many times, threw an old man to the ground and was shipped out of town, only to blow up with the Dodgers playing like a cross between Barry Bonds and Jesus. Of course, almost immediately the next season, he was suspended for PED use and most people started to question his legitimacy. And now this. Faced with a second possible suspension (he would be the first to EVER receive the 100 game suspension), Manny decided to screw over yet another team and retire before taking his punishment like a man. Manny’s steroid use will never taint the way I viewed him as a player.  Thousands of players probably took steroids and none of them could hit like Manny Ramirez. He was the greatest right handed hitter I ever saw, and steroids or not, his picture perfect swing will always be what I remember most about him. Unfortunately, Manny’s steroid use will also never taint the way I viewed him as a person. He was an ignorant man-child who seemed to care for very few others besides himself and was either so arrogant, stupid or both that he thought he could continue to take drugs even after the new policies were put in place. This weekend we lost another great player who was a lot of fun to watch. But luckily, we still have…
• Dustin Pedroia. I wish he was 6 feet tall so people could stop focusing on his height and focus on the fact that Pedroia is a great baseball player. He was absolutely crushing the ball this weekend, looking like there was no way he was going to let the Sox lose this series. And did you see the double play he turned Sunday on the Brett Gardner grounder up the middle? He’s moving around like a jack rabbit on crack and looks to be back in full health. The same may not be true for…
• Kevin Youkilis. Youk has never been known for slow starts; in fact April is his second best hitting month. He’s clearly not lost at the plate (his 11 walks lead the American League) but he is not hitting anything with authority. His injured thumb was on his right hand so it shouldn’t sap his power, but I wonder if it is doing something to his mind where he can’t make the same swings he is used to. I expect he will snap out of this once he is more sure of himself, but the slow start is frustrating out of a guy who typically fades down the stretch. Perhaps more troublesome is his early season defense at third base. He seems a step slow and his reactionary instincts have left something to be desired. With a pitching staff who will feature 3 guys with average or below strikeout numbers, we need strong defense all around. Watching Youk’s chubby ass flop after balls at the hot corner makes me yearn for the days of one of my baseball man crushes…
• Adrian Beltre. He is off to a semi-slow start with the bat, but his defense is no doubt contributing to the Rangers having the lowest ERA in all of baseball (I told you they wouldn’t need Cliff Lee). When they have Josh Hamilton in left and Julio Borbon in center, this is an absolutely dominant defensive team that will allow their starters to put balls in play and last longer into ball games. The rotation looks great, the hitting IS great and the bull pen should be just good enough. For the first time in a long time, the Rangers look like the team to beat in the American League, not the…
• New York Yankees. I have to say I was a little underwhelmed by this team this weekend. The pitching is definitely going to be an issue all year especially if Phil Hughes is sitting 89 on his fastball the whole time. The offense also may not be as good as advertised. In game 1 I was definitely nervous about this lineup. The 3-4-5 of Tex, A-Rod and Cano is the best I can remember probably since the Griffey, A-Rod and Edgar core of the Mariners. Add in the fact that the rest of the lineup was going home run crazy (in game 2 also) and this looked like a scary lineup. Then I remembered that John Lackey was pitching and realized there are some holes in that lineup. Derek Jeter still looks like a player on the decline to me rather than one who just had an off year last year. Jorge Posada is 38 years old and a former catcher, so his hold on the DH spot does not bother me much. Russell Martin is definitely not this good and Curtis Granderson is almost this bad. Nick Swisher is a decent bat, but any inning where 3-4-5 does not come up, should be a huge sigh of relief from a pitching staff. This is definitely not your older brother’s Yankees, where every batter 1-9 knew how to take a pitch and make you pay for your mistakes. I still think they will finish in the top 3 in runs scored at the end of the season (with the Sox and Rangers), but it could be on the backs of a lot of solo homeruns. Of course, any offense would have looked silly Sunday night when they ran into the buzz saw that was…
• Josh Beckkkkkkkkkkett. 10 strikeouts. 94 MPH fastballs. Knee buckling curves. 89 MPH changeups (in Spring Training and his first start, his changeup was sitting around 86 MPH. Usually you want an 8-10 MPH split between your changeup and fastball for deception’s sake, but I wonder if Beckett was changing his mechanics in order to get the bigger split because the pitch was not very effective. Sunday he got back to the fast change, which ends up working more like a sinker and if we look at it that way instead of a changeup, it can be a nasty pitch when he locates). A bat sawing cutter. This was 2003/2007 Josh Beckett. The man regularly compared with Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens. The dude who won a World Series and ALCS MVP. The hombre who wouldn’t take no shit from no one. If we get this consistently from Beckett along with typical Jon Lester, it may not matter that John Lackey now pitches like he looks (as my old boss Jeff Maultsby used to say, “He’s Oscar Gamble ugly”). Now that the O-fer is finally over, we can all enjoy this incredible collection of talent that Theo has assembled. It’s going to be a long season, but I would strongly bet that it will be glorious.
• Small ball: Albert Pujols off to a ridiculously slow start, batting .143/.225/.229 with 1 HR. By comparison, Willie Bloomquist is batting .394/.429/.545. Yet another reason why you don’t panic over early season performance…Are the Tribe for real? After sweeping back to back series from the Sox and Mariners, they are on a 7 game winning streak and have the second best record in baseball. The offense may be better than expected, but I’m guessing the pitching looks good due to a slumping Red Sox lineup and a still historically bad Mariners one. Also, after drawing 40,000+ fans for opening day, the next 4 home games didn’t even equal that in combined attendance. I know it’s cold there, but this is probably as well as that team is going to do all year. Fan up!...My buddies in Cincy are looking real good. Joey Votto is absolutely destroying National League pitching. Must have been that offseason batting practice he received in 2007 from X Mark (ya that was a heavy name drop)…The Braves are in last place. What idiot picked them to win the East over the greatest 4 man rotation of all time? Oh ya…If the playoffs started today (they don’t), Baltimore, Cleveland and Kansas City would be in, the Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, Twins, Tigers and White Sox would be out…Finally, in my best impression of Russell Hammond, I dig baseball.

We Have Been Here Before

On what was supposed to be a momentous day, the first day for Sox Nation to see our shiny new toys, the Olde Town Team is mired in an 0-6 start to the season. Fingernails have been chewed to the bone. Therapists (wow I think that is the first time I have truly noticed that word spelled out) have been over booked. Buttholes have been tightened to the point that the stock price of Ex-Lax has nearly tripled in just one week. And to top it all off, we have our rivals coming into town looking to flip that 6 upside down come Sunday night.

The Yankees were supposed to be the team struggling. The Yankees were supposed to be the team in turmoil. The Yankees were supposed to play second fiddle this year. This was supposed to be our year. The year we could cruise straight through to the World Series and have the dream Game 1 matchup of Lester and Halladay.

But this is Boston. When have we ever had things easy? When have we ever been without rival, disaster or despair? Fortunately, in the last 7 years we have thrived on disaster. We have taken it out for a nice steak dinner and never called it again. We can do disaster. And for those who forget this and think that you can count Boston out because of a little bit of adversity, see the video below and remember the last time we were winless and hopeless.

NL Wild Card and Awards

NL Wild Card Race

1) Philadelphia Phillies

2) Cincinnati Reds

3) Colorado Rockies

4) San Francisco Giants

5) Milwaukee Brewers

6) St. Louis Cardinals

7) Florida Marlins

I already commented on each of these teams in my divisional previews. I think the Phillies pitching will slightly edge out the Reds hitting and then of course go on to terrorize the NL Division winners in the Playoffs. This team is much better suited for October than for April-September because of their top end pitching and lack of depth. I really am excited to see how this rotation turns out. Though I want the Braves to win the East, I love seeing history made so I am definitely pulling for the health and performance of each of the four aces. While I think pitching wins mean precisely dick, there would be something aesthetically pleasing about seeing each guy with 20 wins. For comparison, the Atlanta rotations of the 90s, which I feel represented the best foursomes ever, produced just 7 20 win seasons (Tom Glavine had 4 of them), with only one season (1993, the best for the top four) of multiple 20 game winners.

NL MVP

Beckett and Lowell got us a trophy...Ugh

Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida Marlins

The predictions game is one with very few success stories. Picking an MVP before the season begins is probably the most foolhardy errand in the game. With Division winners, Rookies of the Year and Cy Young Award winners, one can make reasonable projections of how a player or team will do, and with the improving knowledge of the BWAA, we can pretty much assume the awards will go to the actual best rookie or pitcher. Unfortunately, the MVP comes with that pesky middle word that nobody can seem to agree on: Value. It is this word, Value, that leads us to MVP winners like Andre Dawson and his .328 OBP, Pudge Rodriguez in a season where Pedro Martinez pitched better than anyone has pitched ever, Justin Morneau over Jeter and Mauer, Dennis Eckersley and his 80 innings and even our own Dustin Pedroia winning one as much for his height and filthy mouth as for his performance. As you can see, it is hard enough to predict the award ONCE THE SEASON IS OVER so it is next to impossible to predict it in April.

For the hell of it, Hanley Ramirez is my best guess for 2011 NL MVP. First, I expect a bounce back from Hanley this year. Hanley had not recorded a season of below 5.6 WAR since his rookie year until 2010 and I do not see why a 28 year old freak athlete would all of a sudden be on the decline. Looking at his numbers, his biggest drop off was in his Line Drive and Fly Ball percentage, BABIP and also in his defense. It’s typically not a good idea to play psychologist but I get the impression that he was not 100% invested in last season, specifically because of some disagreements with former manager Fredi Gonzalez. This could have led to a worsened plate approach producing more ground balls and laziness on his previously improving defense. I am going to predict a 30/30 season with a batting average that will challenge for the league lead.

In addition, I think Hanley could fit into a pretty nifty narrative, which often seems to be more important than actual performance. The following could be written on his MVP Plaque: “After a down 2010, Hanley Ramirez re-dedicated himself to the game of baseball, putting up his strongest season since 2008. ‘HanRam’, as he is known by his peers, kept a young Marlins club in contention all season battling the juggernaut Phillies and equally surprising Braves for a playoff spot until the final week of the season. ‘Hanley is simply the most dynamic player in baseball,’ manager Edwin Rodriguez gushed. ‘Without his infectious attitude and incredible ability, we’d be more irrelevant than Gloria Estefan.’”

Honorable mention: Albert Pujols, Troy Tulowitzki, Joey Votto, Matt Kemp, Roy Halladay, Ryan Howard, Ryan Braun, Buster Posey

NL Cy Young

 

Roy Halladay, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies

This one is pretty easy. Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball. I think the other 3 aces will falter a bit and Halladay will be seen as the “steadying force”.

Honorable mention: Tim Lincecum, Clayton Kershaw, Chris Carpenter, Tommy Hanson, Cliff Lee, Yovani Gallardo, Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza, Matt Cain

NL Rookie of the Year

 

Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco Giants

This one seems like it’s over before it started. As soon as Belt made the World Champion Giants’ roster coming out of Spring Training, I knew we had a media darling on our hands. Just 5 days into the season and Buster Olney (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=olney_buster&id=6289324) is already speaking of how great he is fitting into the clubhouse and how much respect he is generating. Old baseball writers love shit like that. Add in that he should have a pretty good season and his only real competition looks to be from Craig Kimbrel and Freddie Freeman of the Braves and I think Belt is the clear leader in the clubhouse.

Honorable mention: Freeman, Kimbrel, Mike Minor, Domonic Brown, Aroldis Chapman, Brad Emaus

NL Manager of the Year

 

Mike Quade, Chicago Cubs

If my division predictions hold true, the Chicago Cubs will win the NL Central without a clear MVP, Cy Young or Rookie of the Year candidate. So how will the media possibly reward the Lovable Losers? By handing their new manager the Manager of the Year award. Quade shed the interim tag this offseason after taking over for Crazy Lou Piniella last season. If the Cubs leap past the more commonly favored Reds, Cardinals and Brewers, it will be easy for writers to point to the more relaxed stylings of Mr. Quade as the key catalyst.  So what does Quade have going for him in this nearly impossible to predict award race?

Taking over for a legend? Check.

Big media market? Check.

Surprising contention? Check.

No MAJOR off-season additions and little roster overhaul? Check.

Struggling veterans with potential bounce back seasons? Check.

Strong bullpen leading to strong record in close games? Check.

Of course, every single one of these points are moot if the team doesn’t win the division. Seeing as how my only friend who is a Cubs fan doesn’t even think this will happen, this will probably turn out to be my worst prediction ever.

Honorable mention: Fredi Gonzalez (see Quade, Mike), Don Mattingly (see Quade, Mike), Tony LaRussa, Edwin Rodriguez, Dusty Baker.

No chance: Charlie Manuel (If the Phillies win it will be credited to the pitching and Ruben Amaro. If they don’t make the playoffs, Charlie Manuel may be the fall guy)

I wish you would step back from that ledge my friend...

Still not time to panic. I want to run a little exercise with everybody. Let’s all hop in the Way Back Machine to the morning of April 1^st, 2011. The sun was shining in Texas. Hope sprung eternal. Cy Young contender Jon Lester was about to take the mound for the Sox against the defending AL Champion Texas Rangers, who return a similar rotation to last year (Cliff Lee only had 4 wins for them, his loss is not as big as people think, at least in the regular season) and an improved offense with Adrian Beltre and Mike Napoli added to the fold.

So, on this glorious April 1^st, 2011 Red Sox opening day, I ask you, how many wins will the Red Sox have this year?

I am sure the answers will vary greatly, but from numbers I have seen on the internet and talking to a few folks, let’s put the Opening Day projected win total between 93 and 97.

Now I ask, what’s a realistic win projection for the first 6 games of the season. This includes two three game road series against a really good team, the Texas Rangers, and a not so good team, the Cleveland Indians, keeping in mind that for the Indians series we will have slow starter Josh Beckett and the biggest enigma to hit the streets of Boston since the Boston Strangler, Daisuke Matzuzaka.

I have not polled this out, but is it so unreasonable to expect a 3-3 opening road trip (1-2 in Texas, 2-1 in Cleveland) or even a 2-4 start?

Next, what do you think the Yankees record will be this year, assuming you all think they will be the Wild Card and closest contender in the AL East?

Again, from some discussions and numbers I have seen, we could reasonably guess 90-94 wins.

So, let’s all jump back into the Way Back Machine and return to present day. The Red Sox are 0-5, the Yankees 3-2 (probably a reasonable, if not slightly below expectations, record). With our opening season series prediction, we could have expected them to be 2-3 at this point.

After looking at all this information, at worst we are 2 games off the pace right now. Even though this is incredibly unscientific and probably not accurate, we could say that at worst, our projections drop to 91-95 wins, which is still ahead of the Yankees range. At worst, we are their equals right now, and I don’t know about you, but there is nothing better than being a Red Sox fan when they are locked into a season long battle with the Skankees (as X Dad likes to call them) for the AL East crown.

Take another deep breath, Sox Nation, and relax your sphincters. We have 157 games left to battle it out with our mortal enemies. It’s gonna be a roller coaster ride and I couldn’t be more excited.

2011 AL Central Preview by Odo

 
 
1) Chicago White Sox
2) Detroit Tigers
3) Minnesota Twins
4) Kansas City Royals
5) Cleveland Indians


Explanation:

I’m driving the Chicago White Sox bandwagon. This lineup is LOADED. The ever-so underrated Juan Pierre and the lanky Alexei Ramirez will be towards the top of the lineup to set the table for the big boppers in Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn, and Carlos Quentin (my pick for AL MVP this year). You’re talking about a LOT of power in this lineup. I previously mentioned how the 3-4-5 of the Texas Rangers was deadly, but
this one may rival it. Dunn moving to the bandbox that is U.S. Cellular is a virtual lock for 40 HRs. The pitching is rather deep, as well. Mr. Consistency Mark Buehrle and a talented lefty in John Danks lead a rotation that also includes Edwin Jackson and an injured, yet effective when healthy, Jake Peavy.

It’s a toss-up between the Tigers and Twins for 2nd place in the AL Central. The Twins continue to win division titles with a less than stellar roster. It truly is amazing what Ron Gardenhire has done with such little talent. However, I don’t see them finishing above the Tigers. Miguel Cabrera is an absolute beast. All the talk isabout Albert Pujols, but Miggy can certainly rival him as the best hitter in baseball. The newly-acquired Victor Martinez should provide a bit more pop to a lineup in dire need of some. The hard-throwing, swing-and-miss due of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer should lead the rotation, as both should approach the 200 strikeout club this season.

The Twins don’t do it for me this year. I think Joe Mauer is entirely overrated (X Mark note: I heavily disagree with this statement. I intend to duel Odo to the death in the Midieval Times ring Cable Guy style. Or maybe just start a player debate series on the blog. Let's just go with the latter. Probably cleaner.). Yeah, sure, the guy hits .330, but he does so with no pop. As a matter of fact, no one in the lineup aside from Justin Morneau has 30+ homerun potential except for maybe Jason Kubel. Furthermore, the rotation is crap after Francisco Liriano and even he has the dreaded injury flag planted all over him. A solid bullpen, assuming Joe Nathan comes back strong, but it’ll be hard for them to be utilized effectively
without a decent rotation.

Kansas City will not finish last this season. They have a surplus of young talent and should be pretty fun to watch this year as current prospects and post prospects continue their outbreaks. The average baseball fan may not be able to recognize anyone in the lineup or rotation, but the Royals could be legit as soon as 2013
(see Devil Rays of 2008). They may not finish with a winning record this year, but playoff berths are possible as soon as 2013 with this young, talented organization.

Cleveland can’t hit. Cleveland can’t pitch. Cleveland does not rock. Sorry Drew Carey. Cleveland sucks. Worst team in baseball. Moving on!

Player to Watch Under 25:

Hehe stroke

Billy Butler, DH/1B, Royals, 24 years old

My pick to click this year is Billy Butler. It’s only a matter of time before the doubles machine becomes a homerun machine. If he can develop as a bonafide power hitter in that young Royals lineup, then the march to 2013 may come a bit sooner. If you haven’t noticed yet, I think the Royals could be a fun team to watch this year.

Honorable mention: Gordon Beckham, John Danks, Chris Sale, Brent Morel, Dayan Viciedo, Chris Perez, Carlos Santana, Michael Brantley, Rick Porcello, Austin Jackson, Brennan Boesch, 5'6'' Tim Collins, Aaron Crow, Alcides Escobar, Delmon Young

10th Man:

Joaquin Benoit, RHP, Tigers

He’s not so much of a 10th man, but I think he’s a major sleeper. Jose Valverde isn’t the most consistent closer. I think by years end, you may see Joaquin Benoit in the closers role for the Tigers. He has closer potential and an immense arsenal of pitches.

2011 AL West Preview by Odo

Watch out for monkey gangs Torii!

1) LA Angels
2) Texas Rangers
3) Oakland A’s
4) Seattle Mariners

Explanation:

They are never a sexy team by any means, but they always manage to remain competitive until the final week of the season. This year will be no different. The Angels are my pick to win the AL West. In Mike Scioscia I Trust. He’s a terrific manager and knows how to win games given the talent (or lackthereof) on his
roster. Expect a regression from Jeff Weaver, but a progression from Dan Haren. Haren is a sleeper pick in the Cy Young Race this year. With a low BB rate and a high K rate, he was one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball last season. However, he lit it up when he came to LA midseason. The lineup leaves a lot to be desired, but it’s a typical scrappy Angels line-up. Vlad is gone, but has been replaced with Vernon Wells. A terrible contract, but he still hit 28 dingers last year. Moreover, the Angels always seem to go out and get the pieces they are missing to make a playoff run at the trade deadline every year.

Texas could challenge for the AL West crown, but I don’t see it with the pitching staff assembled. It will be interesting to see how C.J. Wilson performs this year given the spike in innings last year. After Wilson, the talent drops off. In terms of a lineup, the Rangers are as stacked as anyone – when healthy. I’m waiting for the season that Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton both stay healthy for a full year. Throw in the mashing potential of Mike Napoli and this may be one of the scariest, if not THE scariest, 3-4-5 hitters in the league. One can only imagine the numbers these three could produce. Neftali Feliz’s talent would really be best suited in the rotation, especially with how thin it is. I just hope the Rangers don’t pull a Joba Chamberlain with him each year – “he’s starting, he’s relieving, he’s starting, he’s relieving”.

Oakland is my pick to finish third in the division. Positives include a stacked rotation reminiscent of the days of Mulder-Hudson-Zito in the late 90s. Gio Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, and Trevor Cahill have already proved effective at the major league level. I’m looking for them to take the next step this year. Gonzalez’ potential is immense and has the highest ceiling of the three. He could either flame out or be an absolute stud by season’s end. The lineup is weak sauce. Cliff Pennington? Mark Ellis? Kevin Kouzmanoff? Coco Crisp is arguably the best hitter on this team. When that’s the case, you know you’re in trouble. This team will only go as far as its rotation can carry it. Just imagine when Harden comes back……and then hits the DL again after three starts.

Poor Seattle. Poor King Felix. He deserves more. Arguably the best pitcher in baseball, the King was awarded with his first Cy Young award. Everyone’s sexy pick to win the AL West in 2010, Seattle disappointed. The high expectations aren’t there this year. Neither will the actual performance. Erik Bedard is a wildcard. Michael Pineda has the potential, but is he ready for MLB hitters now? I question why the Mariners are even starting the service time clock with him by starting the season with him on the MLB roster. Why not wait until June/July and save themselves the money? As good as Pineda is, he’s certainly not the missing piece to a division crown here. Once again, an absolute putrid lineup, but a lineup with some young hitters still learning the ropes in Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders, and Adam Moore. Ichiro and Chone Figgins are aging and there does not seem to be much talent on the horizon. This organization could really suffer over the next few years.

After writing this, I have realized how less than mediocre the lineups in the AL West are outside of the Rangers. Couple the rotation of the Angels with the lineup of the Rangers and you have an immediate World Series favorite.

Player to Watch Under 25:

The one that got away from X Mark's Braves

Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers, 22 years old

When considering players for this “award”, I wanted to select a younger player who could have a direct impact on the AL West pennant race. Had Feliz been slotted in the rotation, he would have been an easy choice. As is the case, I am going with Elvis Andrus. He plays solid defense and is the fastest kid alive. However, he struggled to get on base to utilize his speed in 2010. He can wreak havoc on the basepaths and
I fully expect him to in 2011. If he can successfully set the table for The Big 3, he’s a sure bet to score 100 runs. 2011 will bode much better for Elvis.

Honorable mention: Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Walden, Hank Conger

10th Man:

Woah! Is half his face a catcher's mask?

Adam Moore, C, Mariners

Congratulations, Adam Moore. You are the proud recipient of the 10th Man Award for the AL West. Slotted to be the backup to Miguel Olivo behind the dish, Moore can hit. He has a career .303 average and .850 OPS in the minors – not bad for a catcher. However, he has not really been given much of an opportunity to display his skills at the major league level. I would love to see what he could do with some regular ABs.

Update:

Per Rotoworld:

Dr. Ed Khalfayan found an "extensive tear" in Adam Moore's medial meniscus during surgery, and the catcher is expected to be sidelined 4-6 months.

In other words, there's a good chance he won't be back at all this season. The Mariners will go with a catching duo of Miguel Olivo and Chris Gimenez, though Josh Bard could also factor into things at some point.

I hope that my nominees and calling out players will not turn into the new Madden or SI curse.

Emergency Red Sox Post

This is not an emergency because the Red Sox are doing very bad things on the field through 4 games. This is an emergency, because in typical Nation fashion, people are freaking out (I even heard Mark Bertrand from 98.5 say that Crawford was off to a slow start. After game 1!). So your ol’ buddy X Mark is here to talk you all off the ledge.

Hitting

The hitting will still be excellent this year. On August 3^rd last year, the day after Kevin Youkilis’ season ended and a full 2 months before the season ended, the Red Sox trotted out the following lineup:

Scutaro SS

McDonald CF

Martinez C

Ortiz DH

Beltre 3B

Lowell 1B

Lowrie 2B

Hall LF

Kalish RF

This was not a one day lineup either. This lineup or something similar to it was a fairly regular occurrence for the last 2 months of the 2010 season. Even prior to Youk going down, the lineup was not much better on paper. And yet, they still managed to finish 2^nd in the AL in runs to only the Yankees. So what did this 2^nd best offense do this offseason? How about pick up two of the best offensive players in baseball (Gonzalez and Crawford) while getting another two of the best offensive players in baseball healthy (Youkilis and Pedroia).

We are gonna play my favorite game real quick: Player A vs Player B.

Player A through 4 games: .133 BA, .188 OBP, .133 SLG, 2 Hits, 1 Walk, 6 SO, 1 RBI

Player B through 4 games: .091 BA, .286 OBP, .182 SLG, 1 Hit, 2 Walks, 7 SO, 1 RBI

Player A is the 2011 start for the “worst contract in baseball”, Carl Crawford. Player B is the 2010 start for Josh Hamilton. That would be 2010 MVP Josh Hamilton. X Mark say RELAX!!!

Relief Pitching

Last year, the Red Sox finished 23^rd in bullpen ERA and easily had the worst of any AL contender. So again, the Sox went out and overhauled the bullpen, bringing 4 new members to the opening day roster and seriously improving their depth in the minors. Bobby Jenks, Denis Reyes and Matt Albers have looked great so far. Wheeler has looked decent despite giving up a homer to the Rangers when everyone was giving up homers to the Rangers. Papelbon was sort of a mixed bag in his lone (non save) appearance, but he did strike out the side. And then there is Bard. If anyone really thinks we have an issue with Bard and his 98 MPH fastball, then you probably do not know a whole lot about baseball. By the nature of their craft, relievers will have a bad outing here and there and because they typically only pitch an inning at a time, that bad outing will look REALLY bad. Again, we all need to relax. The bullpen still should be a strength this year.

Starting Pitching

This is the area where it is ok to worry, but not for the reasons you think. The reason why it is ok to worry about the rotation is because it was ok to worry about the rotation in the offseason. The rotation is now and was 2 months ago the Sox biggest weakness. Lester and Buchholz should still be studs at the top (did you see Clay’s stuff Sunday? So good), and Dice K should still be one of the best 5^th starters in baseball. The problem then as it is now is what to do with Mr. Beckett and Mr. Lackey (combined salary this year: $31 million). Beckett had a crappy year last year with decent peripheral stats meaning we could see a little bit of a bounce back. Lackey had a very average year last year, but came on strong in the second half so maybe we could see a bounce back out of him too. Unfortunately they both have been trending downward in recent years and the older they get, the better they will not get. I am finding it hard to be optimistic on these two as anything more than middle rotation starters. Luckily this is where they slot into our rotation (please ignore how Tito set up the rotation to start the season, this does not mean he thinks Lackey is our true number 2), but unluckily if we want to be the dominant team in the AL we are going to need more than that from them.

The reasons why people ARE worrying is because of each starters performance in their 2011 debuts, but this is misguided because we should not expect this trend to continue. First, we will look at Lester, Lackey and Buchholz because they all had exactly the same problem in their starts: the long ball. Last year, according to the LA Times, the league average HR per 9 rate was 0.96. Here is the same rate for these three pitchers in 2010 and career:

Lester: 0.6, 0.8

Lackey: 0.8, 0.9

Buchholz: 0.5, 0.9

All were better than league average last year (Buch and Lester considerably so) and all are better than league average in their careers (and I guarantee that the league average HR/9 has been higher than 0.96 during these guys careers). This weekend they combined to give up 9 home runs in 15 1/3 innings for a HR/9 of 5.3!!! For comparison, Buch only gave up 9 HR all of last year and he is almost halfway there this year! This SCREAMS fluke.

Second, we will look at Beckett, who needed 106 pitches to get through just 5 innings against a below average Cleveland lineup. Last year in Beckett’s worst year since his Boston debut, he walked 3.2 batters per nine innings, his worst rate since that first season. The years between he posted the following walk rates: 1.8, 1.8 and 2.3. Beckett was injured most of last year and his much bigger problem were his rate of home runs (1.4 HR/9, way above league average). When healthy, he has great, almost Schilling-like control and all indications are that he is going into this season in top health. Add in the fact that he is a notorious slow starter, especially in cold weather, and we cannot look at this start with any real meaning.

For the final time, the Sox have played 4 games. Championship teams have lost 4 in a row or more almost every single year. It is glaring because it is the beginning of the season, but it is largely meaningless. We have 158 glorious games to go and have a chance to witness a potentially great Boston team with a youngish core that will be here for many years to come. Sit back, enjoy, and RELAX!

2011 NL West Preview

The definition of "cleat chaser"

1) Los Angeles Dodgers
2) Colorado Rockies
3) San Francisco Giants
4) San Diego Padres
5) Arizona Diamondbacks

Explanation:

This may be the year we find out just how much a bad manager can impact a team. I will admit that we only have a few data points on Don Mattingly's managerial ability, but they have mostly been poor. I tend to think that managing a team is one of the easier jobs in sports, but it would be nice if he had at least SOME experience. Despite Donnie Baseball's lack of experience, I like this Dodger team, mainly for its rotation and bullpen. In a division with potentially no above average lineups (the D'Backs look the strongest), the team with the strongest pitching should take the title. The rotation should be really strong top to bottom, with Clayton Kershaw (see Player to Watch Under 25) a clear ace, Chad Billingsley a notch below, Ted Lilly and Hiroki Kuroda as great middle of the rotation starters, and John Garland pitching in a big ballpark. The bullpen also looks like a strength if Jonathan Broxton can rebound. The weakness, like the rest of the NL West, is the lineup. Matt Kemp appears poised to return to stardom after regaining some focus. Andre Ethier, Juan Uribe and Marcus Thames will provide some much needed power. Rafael Furcal should continue to be an on-base machine at the top of the lineup. There is even some help in the pipeline in Dee Gordon and Jerry Sands. Now if only Frank and Jaime could work things out, all would be well in Dodger Town.

Despite their shockingly weak lineup, I think the Rockies will flirt with contention all year for a lot of the same reason that people think the Cardinals can hang: 2 top 10 offensive players, a dominating ace, a good rest of the rotation and (unlike St. Louis) a potentially dominating bullpen. The team has a few interesting pieces (Dexter Fowler, Ian Stewart, Chris Iannetta, Huston Street, Jhoulys Chacin, the bullpen), but this season all comes down to the health of Troy Tulowitzki and the sustainability of 2010 breakouts from Ubaldo Jimenez and Carlos Gonzalez. The last four seasons, Tulo has played in 155, 101, 151, and 122 games. Hopefully this is a pattern that means he's in for a 150+ season, because when he plays he is one of the 5 best players in baseball. People see his stat line and assume that he is a purely Coors Field creation, but I promise you he is not, despite the pro-Coors splits. Because we have been spoiled by A-Rod and Hanley the last decade, I think we forget how rare it is for a short stop, especially one who can defend, to hit 30 homers in a season. And if people are so quick to ding batters for their performance at Coors, where are they in singing the praises of Ubaldo Jimenez? Jimenez was third in the NL in ERA+ last year, show him some more love. Finally CarGo is the biggest Coors Field product since Dante Bichette. I think he will hit well this year, but will continue with his massive platoon split (1.161 Home OPS/.775 Road OPS) making it really hard for the Rockies to win on the road (31-50 last year). Ultimately the road woes will hold them out of the playoffs.

The defending champs will not repeat. The Giants benefited from a down year by the Rockies and Dodgers,  fluke seasons from Andres Torres and Aubrey Huff (who finished 14th and 17th respectively in WAR in all of baseball) and immaculate health from the top 4 in the rotation and then the late season call up of Madison Bumgarner (and of course the brilliant work of Buster Posey). These are all things that will not happen again. The Rockies and Dodgers figure to play a lot better this year. There is no way the rotation will hold up like it did last year (and their sixth starter is anyone's guess). Torres and Huff are journeymen and just can't play as well as they did last year. Their defense could be disastrous with Huff and Pat Burrell manning the corners and Miguel Tejada's wax figure firmly planted at short. In spite of that, this team will still be competitive. Posey is still here and he's brought fellow phenom Brandon Belt to his party. The rotation is possibly the best in baseball (non-Phillies division) while they are healthy and the bullpen was tremendous last year (although this is, again, another area where regression can be expected). Making repeat trips to the baseball playoffs is not the norm and even fewer teams repeat as champions. The Giants are not the late 90s Yankees. Have fun watching Posey, Belt and Lincecum and enjoy your mild summers.

The Padres can't hit and the D'Backs can't pitch. Combine the two and the team still may be middle of the road. Each team has a stud youngster who they can build around. Mat "Don't Call Me Matt" Latos was absolutely dominant in his first full season and only seems to be moderately aided by Petco as he struck out 9.21 per 9 and walked 2.44 per 9. Health and workload will be questions this year, but Latos looks set to be the anchor of what could be a real good staff if guys like Casey Kelly, Simon Castro and Corey Luebke pan out. I will also be watching closely for a Cameorn Maybin breakout. Over in Phoenix, Justin Upton looks to rebound from his somewhat disappointing 2010 (although it's almost laughable to say a 3.1 WAR season from a 23 year old is disappointing). This kid is still on track to become a super duper star and I would expect numbers similar to those he posted two years ago, which could mean 30 HR and 20 steals, numbers that, before Jose Canseco and Barry Bonds showed up, used to be rare. We should all take a minute to appreciate his talent. Oh, and if Willie Bloomquist batting leadoff is any indication of the type of manager Kirk Gibson will be, we may need to coax the boys at Fire Joe Morgan out of retirement.

Player to Watch Under 25:

Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers, 23 years old

Player A through age 22: 363 IP, 20-21, 4.21 ERA, 98 ERA+, 7.8 K/9, 5.3 BB/9, 7.8 H/9
Player B through age 22: 483 IP, 26-23, 3.17 ERA, 125 ERA+, 9.3 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 7.2 H/9

Player B of course is Clayton Kershaw. Player A? How about the best left hander in Dodgers (and maybe MLB) history, Sandy Koufax? Now I'm not putting together a Scott Boras player packet, but I find it incredible that Kershaw has been this dominant at such a young age and yet he still feels like he flies under the  radar. How a 6'3'' lefty who strikes out over a batter per inning with a 93 MPH fastball and posts consecutive seasons of sub 3.00 ERA flies under the radar is beyond my comprehension. But I guess you have to date Rihanna or be married to a Kardashian to get noticed in LA.

While doing a little research on Kershaw, it seems like the Dodgers have been awash in stud lefties over their illustrious history. Nap Rucker, Johnny Podres, Koufax, Claude Osteen, Tommy John, Fernandomania, Odalis Perez (just kidding) and now Kershaw. I don't know if this is a lot, a little, or somewhere in between, but it just seemed notable to me. Anyway, Kershaw is already one of the top pitchers in baseball and figures to improve as his secondary pitches develop. While the Freak (Tim Lincecum, who didn't even throw a big league inning until he was 23) can be much more exciting to watch, his counterpart to the south is quickly becoming his equal on the mound, setting up for a tasty rivalry reminiscent of Koufax and Jaun Marichal.

Honorable mention: Justin Upton, Daniel Hudson, Jhoulys Chacin, Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez, Cameron Maybin

10th Man:

They actually got this one right

All Star Ty Wigginton, Util IF/OF, Rockies (I am contractually obligated to point out that this man is a former All Star)

You'll notice that not once have I selected a relief pitcher as my 10th Man. This is because over 55-70 innings, a reliever is 1) too difficult to predict and 2) not impactful enough to warrant consideration as someone who I feel is likely to alter a pennant race.

All Star Ty Wigginton is currently listed on the Rockies depth chart as a backup at LF, RF, 1B, 2B and 3B. Aside from CarGo, none of the starters at the other positions figure to be world beaters this year. All Star Ty Wigginton does not figure to beat the world either (especially with is poor infield defense), but he does offer some positives to this surprisingly weak hitting Rockies lineup.

Since 2006, All Star Ty Wigginton has belted 20+ homers in every season but 2009 and as recently as 2008 he put up a 128 OPS+ (ironically this is not his All Star year). These seasons mostly occurred in hitter's parks, but as he is playing in the best hitter's park this year we can expect another 20+ homers with enough plate appearances. While his infield D is pretty bad, there is something to be said for a guy you can run out at 5 different positions, especially one who has the bat to play anywhere. Most interestingly, with Bruce Bochy's veteran loving ass managing the NL All Star team this year, there is a chance we could see the worst 2 time All Star since Scott Cooper! If All Star Ty Wigginton gets over 400 at bats, I think he could positively impact the Rockies, who have the pitching, defense and top end talent to sneak into the playoffs with a couple strong seasons from some veteran role players like All Star Ty Wigginton.

2011 NL Central Preview

1) Chicago Cubs
2) Cincinnati Reds
3) Milwaukee Brewers
4) St. Louis Cardinals
5) Pittsburgh Pirates
6) Houston Astros

Explanation:

This is by far my boldest prediction of 2011: The Chicago Cubs will be NL Central champs. First of all, the NL Central is this season's biggest tossup. Not much separates the top 4 teams. I could see any of them  inning the division and a couple of them (Reds and Brewers) running away with the division if their pitching catches up to their offense. I just happen to think the Cubs have something going this year that will leave them bathing in champagne when all is said and done.

The Cubs are led first and foremost by their pitching. Huh? Yes, the staff finished with the 13th most runs allowed in the NL last year, but I really like the additions they made this off season and expect a bounce back from Carlos Zambrano. Matt Garza escapes the brutal AL East (where he actually performed quite well) and Andrew Cashner brings hope to the back end of the rotation. Their bullpen has 3 high strikeout guys in Carlos Marmol, Kerry Wood and Sean Marshall. I also like the defense up the middle with Starlin Castro and Darwin Barney at the keystone and the criminally underrated Marlon Byrd in center. Most importantly, they have shed the bloated contract and bloated gut of Carlos Silva. Their offense could be in the top 3rd of the league as well. Aramis Ramirez just cannot be as bad as he was last year when injuries limited him to 124 games. Carlos Pena joins Garza in the Escape From AL (staring Kurt Russell as Jim Hendry) and I expect him to bounce back after a flukey season in which his BABIP was .222. Increased contribution from Tyler Colvin (see 10th Man) and natural progression from 21 year old Castro should also provide a boost to this offense. Add in the fact that there appears to be no other above average rotation in this division besides the Astros, and I think the Cubs offense will take a big step forward.

My Reds are defending division champs and a trendy bet to repeat, but I get the feeling that this is one of those young teams whose improvements are giant in one year and then they regress a little to the mean. Or maybe I'm shooting for a little reverse jinx. Their offense is going to absolutely mash once again. Paul Janish is the only below average hitter. I expect a HUGE Jay Bruce breakout and another MVP type season from Joey Votto. Their defense should be one of the best in the NL with potential Gold Glovers at every position except catcher and left when Johny Gomes plays. Unfortunately the pitching staff gives me night terrors despite its considerable starting depth. There is a lot of talent on the staff, but most of it is young and injury prone, which is essentially Dusty Baker's Kryptonite. "A 24 year old pitcher that throws 94? I must pitch him 250 innings at 120 pitches per start!" With a bullpen that could be a serious weakness beyond Aroldis Chapman, the Reds could be on the losing end of a lot of 9-8 games. Still, with the offense, youth, defense and starting pitching depth, this team could win 96 games and run away with the division.

The Brewers are "all in" this year. Unfortunately I think they have a better chance at making the World Series of Poker than the World Series of Baseball (get it? All in?). This is a very top heavy team. Zack Greinke (when he recovers from his basketball injury; why was there not more outrage over this?), Yovani Gallardo and Shaun Marcum form a top 3 that matches up even with the Phillies top 3. Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Casey McGehee and Corey Hart (when he recovers from an accident he suffered while wearing his sun glasses at night) are a great meat of the order. Then there is a massive drop off to the next level of talent. The back of the rotation is brutal. Carlos Gomez, Yuni Bettancourt and the catcher platoon is weak. The bench of Craig Counsell, Mark Kotsay and Nyjer Morgan combined for 10 HR last year. The bullpen seems very shallow. And the defense, just by adding Bettancourt, could be the worst in baseball, negating a lot of the improvement made in the starting rotation. I think too much can go wrong here and we will see a little of this early in Hart's and Greinke's absences.

St. Louis is the last of the NL Central contenders and the team that Baseball Prospectus likes best to take the division. If the Cardinals do finish 4th, it would be the worst finish in Albert Pujols' career and just the second time they have finished this low (they were fourth place at 86-76 in 2008 in a surprisingly strong NL Central). Even more impressive, the team has finished below .500 just once, in 2007 a year in which no non-Pujols player made 500 plate appearances, Chris Carpenter was lost to Tommy John surgery and Kip Wells and Anthony Reyes combined to start 46 games. I see a similar scenario this season. With Matt Holiday already out due to his burst appendix (and no timetable for a return, though it should be soon) and Adam Wainwright going under the knife, this team is Pujols, a promising young outfielder (Colby Rasmus in 2011, Chris Duncan in 2007), one ace (Carpenter in 2011, Wainwright in 2007), a potentially bad bullpen (versus a strong one in 2007) and a lot of questions. Holiday will ultimately be fine, David Freese is a sleeper for a strong season and Jaime Garcia could avoid the sophomore slump (although for comparison, the 2007 team got a strong 22 starts out of Todd Wellemeyer and Joel Pineiro), but this just feels like an incomplete team with a lot of holes.

Pittsburgh and Houston are bad. They are probably the worst teams in baseball. Pittsburgh has some hope in the form of its young quartet of Andrew McCutcheon, Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, and Jose Tabata, but their pitching straight up sucks. Houston has some hope in its above average rotation of Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Meyers, J.A. Happ and Bud Norris, but their hitting could be Mariners level bad and Carlos Lee may be the worst defensive left fielder in history at this point. At least Pittsburgh has some upside and a potentially decent core. Houston is in the middle of a sale, has an almost completely barren farm system, has to deal with idiot writers not voting Jeff Bagwell into the Hall of Fame and has probably the worst uniforms in baseball. Not a good time to be an Astros fan.

Player to Watch Under 25:

Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Reds, 23 years old

I bet you thought I was gonna choose Jay Bruce here. I would have, but I think my boy deserves his own post. Instead, I'll go with The Defector (his actual nickname is allegedly the "Cuban Missile", which is cool in itself, but I've always thought "The Defector" would be a great nickname for a Cuban player in MLB).

Chapman burst onto the scene last year pumping 105 MPH heat out of the Louisville Bats bullpen and was quickly promoted to Cincinnati where he was clocked as high as 103.9! Speed is not the only thing this real life Sidd Finch brings to the table, as his high 80's slider is probably his best pitch and he has been developing a swing and miss change-up in Spring Training. The Defector is not just a thrower, he can flat out pitch. And he's a fellow lefty! His combination of mind blowing speed, plus command, and knee buckling movement is quite literally must watch.

There is some good news and bad news with Chapman's current career trajectory. The bad news is that he is wasting away in the Reds bullpen and potentially doomed to the closer's role despite an overwhelming starting pitching profile. The good news is that Dusty Baker is currently his manager. How is this good news? Well if the Reds were handling Chapman properly and made him a starter, Ol' Dusty would probably be salivating at the opportunity to hang 120+ pitches on another flame throwing youngster. Here are Kerry Wood's pitch counts from June 15 - July 21 in 1998 when he was just 21 years old: 117, 121, 104, 118, 122, 128, 123. And Kerry Wood's pitch counts from the 1999 season: 0 (Out for the season for Tommy John surgery). So maybe Walt Jocketty is onto something here. Stash the phenom in the bullpen away from the wrath of Dusty and capitalize on that $30 million investment when Dusty packs up his toothpicks and rides off to the Small Ball and RBI Retirement Community with Joe Morgan and Tim McCarver. Until then, we will all enjoy random deployments of 104 MPH fastballs and feces inducing sliders.

Honorable mention: Andrew Cashner, Starlin Castro, Tyler Colvin, Travis Wood, Jay Bruce, Brett Wallace, Yovani Gallardo, Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, Jose Tabata, Andrew McCutcheon, Jaime Garcia, Colby Rasmus

10th Man:

Tyler Colvin, OF, Cubs

$41.5 million. This is the combined 2011 salaries of Alphonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome and Carlos Pena. $401K. This is not your retirement fund. This is the 2011 salary of Tyler Colvin, a young man who will backup the aforementioned trio, despite strong evidence that he possesses superior baseball playing ability to each of them (NOTE: As of this writing it does appear that Colvin will be starting in right for the Cubs, but the analysis holds up).

I have been keeping an eye on Colvin since my days with the Reds when I saw him in a few games as a member of the Daytona Cubs. Back then he profiled as a free swinging center fielder with lots of pop and no plate discipline. Since, he has grown into his body more and been forced off center field, but still projects to be a solid right fielder. He has improved his plate discipline, last year walking in a respectable 7.6% of all plate appearances. Most importantly, he has maintained that sweet power stroke (wow that sounds gay!). In 2010 he had 20 HR in 395 plate appearances and registered a .246 ISO (isolated power= Slugging%-Batting%). To give you some perspective, this would have ranked 12th in baseball had he recorded enough plate appearances.

While I expect some bounce back from Pena, solid though unspectacular play from Fukudome, and another under the radar good season from Soriano (who bounced back nicely last year with 2.9 WAR), I think Colvin will outplay all of them this year. If the Cubs are going to take the division as I predict, it will take some breakout campaigns and Colvin, along with Starlin Castro and Andrew Cashner, is the best bet to deliver.

2011 NL East Preview

1) Atlanta Braves
2) Philadelphia Phillies
3) Florida Marlins
4) New York Mets
5) Washington Nationals

Explanation:

I think the Atlanta Braves are the best team top to bottom in the National League. The team added a second baseman with 35 homer power (Dan Uggla) to an offense that finished fifth in the league in runs scored last year. They feature a pair of 21 year olds in their lineup, one of whom (Jason Heyward) could finish the season as the best outfielder in the National League. They return essentially the same pitching staff that gave up the third least runs last season and have added a young left/right closing platoon in Johnny Venters and Craig Kimbrel that will allow new manager Fredi Gonzalez to match up well against any lineup late in the game. Add in my long standing Braves bias and I’d be crazy not to pick them to top the division.

Another reason for the pick is that something is not sitting right in my stomach about this Phillies team. Now maybe this is my continued attempts to force myself to like rice, but I really think I am on to something here. Yes, they have the “4 Aces” (which is not the best 4 man rotation of all time, check the 90s Braves before you bring that nonsense my way). But what do they have beyond that? I see two rapidly declining former MVPs in Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins. I see their best player, Chase Utley, sidelined until at least the All Star break with no reasonable backups behind him. I see a very average outfield that did a poor job replacing its top performer this year (Jayson Werth). I see a below average bullpen who’s inconsistent closer is currently disabled. Add in the fact that 3 of the 4 Aces are in their 30s and the youngin of the group, Cole Hamels, has been anything but an ace as recently as 2009, and I don’t see this team able to overcome its glaring lineup and bullpen weaknesses to be this dominant force they were supposed to be upon signing Cliff Lee.

Florida should be a fun team to watch this year. They feature the best US pitcher you have never heard of in Josh Johnson, 4 good young players in Mike Stanton (more on him later), Logan Morrison, Gaby Sanchez and Chris Coghlan, and the division’s top player in Hanley Ramirez (flags fly forever, flags fly forever, flags fly forever, flags fly forever). I just don’t see them having enough to overcome the very strong Braves and Phillies, even though they are a trendy sleeper pick.

The Mets. Ugh. What a craptasitc disaster this team has turned into. The offense is still pretty good as long as David Wright is there. Jose Reyes, Angel Pagan and Carlos Beltran provide support and Brad Emaus, a Rule V pick starting at second base, could be a nice surprise. Unfortunately their pitching is a mess. I recently came across an article saying Mike Pelfrey needs to step up to be the ace of the staff in the absence of Johan Santana. The guy with the 1.66 K/BB ratio. Good luck Mets fans. At least you have R.A. Dickey’s knuckle ball and Mr. Met. Step right up and greet the Mets indeed.

The Nationals probably aren’t as bad as people seem to think. They’ve got my current baseball man crush Ryan Zimmerman. A great beard (Jayson Werth) with a big contract playing right field. Jordan Zimmerman, no relation, coming back from surgery to hopefully reclaim the promise he showed in 2009 when he stuck out 92 batters in 91 1/3 innings before getting hurt. A nice young middle infield of Danny Espinosa and Ian Desmond. A player who may surprise a lot of people (including Jim Riggleman) in Michael Morse. And they even have a Hall of Famer! It is just not enough in this iteration of the NL East. The Natty Lights are a few years away from contention and maybe even respectability and their hopes hang on Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, players whose combined age is 1 year older than their Hall of Famer (Pudge Rodriguez; he of the .294 OBP last year). At least they still have the cherry blosoms.

Player to Watch Under 25:

Mike Stanton, RF, Marlins, 21 years old

Jason Heyward has a chance to be the next Dave Winfield. Craig Kimbrel struck out 40 in 20 2/3 in his debut last season (that's a 17.42 K/9!). Domonic Brown is an enigma, wrapped in a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, wrapped in an ace bandage. Jordan Zimmerman is the potential yang to Stephen Strasburg's yin. So why am I choosing Mike Stanton as my "Player to Watch Under 25" in the NL East?

Because chicks still dig the long ball. Or maybe I do. Maybe I miss the days of multiple 50 home run seasons. Of long majestic flies. Of no doubters. Maybe I don't care that some of it was chemically enhanced. I love home runs. Stanton hit 43 total home runs last year between AA and the Majors. As a 20 year old. Try to think of your greatest accomplishment when you were 20 (mine was coming up with beer box wall paper) and then consider how absurd 43 home runs are. He has a lot of flaws in his game, namely strike outs, and may never develop into the sort of athletic, five tool player that people love. However, Stanton is absolutely Must See TV every time he comes to the plate if for nothing else than for the chance to see the longest home run of the season and to remember what you were doing when you were 21.

Honorable mention: Heyward, Kimbrel, Brown, Zimmerman, Tommy Hanson, Freddie Freeman, Logan Morrison, Ike Davis, Wilson Ramos, Ian Desmond

10th Man:

Eric Hinske, Utility IF/OF, Braves

I think the Braves are the most well rounded team in the NL East and will edge the Phillies for the division crown. Unfortunately, their lineup, especially at the corners, is a youthful, inexperienced, house of cards held together by athletic tape. Chipper Jones is 38 and coming off a torn ACL sufferedlast August. Jason Heyward missed 20 games, played through many ailments, and already has a bad back this spring. Martin Prado is playing left field for the first time in his career. Freddie Freeman is a 21 year old rookie and didn't exactly set the minors on fire. Should any of these players slip (literally or figuratively), Eric Hinske could find himself smack dab in the middle of a hotly contested pennant race. The question is, is he up to it?

Eric Hinske is one of the best, if not the best, bench players in the NL. He can play 4 positions and handles the bat well, especially against right handers. Hinske has batted for his career .254/.336/.439, but hits righties at a slightly better clip. His 2010 season was right in line with his career totals so we can expect something similar this year.

The problem is that Hinske has not been a full time player since 2004. In seasons in which he registered stats similar to his career line, he received between 200 and 300 at bats. Add in the fact that he is a slightly below average defender at all corners but third, where he is solidly below average, and it is easy to see that Hinske is not equipped to be an everyday player at this point in his career. Therefore, as long as the Braves can keep him in his 200-300 at bat sweet spot, Hinske will be the NL's MVBW (Most Valuable Bench Warmer). Unfortunately if they rely on him to replace any of their starting options for extended time, the season could be a long one.

MLB Previews Coming

Hello all, it's X Mark checking in again for the first time in a long time. I wanted to let people know that I will be posting MLB previews this week. I have also brought on a buddy to help shoulder the load and maybe give me the kick in the ass I need to start writing more now that this glorious season is upon us. His name is Odo. He is a former Houston Astros Bat Boy and Bat Man and he seems to know his stuff. He will be tackling the American League preview and I will handle the National. I am hoping to write a lot more this year and focus on baseball in general, but since I have already made that statement several times and not lived up to it, I won't promise anything this time. Here is the schedule for the previews this week:

Tuesday: NL Divisions
Wednesday: AL Divisions
Thursday: NL Awards and Playoffs
Friday: AL Awards and Playoffs

Hope all 3 of my readers (X Mom, X Dad and X Jill) enjoy the postings.

The NBA's Next Great Young Team: An Introduction

This past Friday I was treated to a pleasant surprise at my local bar.

No, it wasn’t free Budweiser night. The bar had the Oklahoma City Thunder and Portland Trail Blazers game on TV. For a born again NBA junkie like myself, this scratched me right where I itched.

Portland and OKC are both recent NBA darlings. While they do not yet have the mainstream appeal of the Boston/Miami/LA trio, each team has a lot of similar qualities to like that, coupled with a few positive breaks, could launch them to America’s team status.

Each team currently sports a great cast of characters. Likeable (i.e. appeals to the corporate crowd) star/superstar (Brandon Roy/Kevin Durant). Explosive second banana (LaMarcus Aldridge/Russell Westbrook). Quietly effective and underrated third wheels (Nicolas Batum/Jeff Green). Young, homegrown role players (Rudy Fernandez, Dante Cunningham, Armon Johnson/James Harden, Serge Ibaka, Cole Aldrich). Token white guys (Sean Marks, Luke Babbit/Aldrich, Nick Collison). Foreign-born players galore (Batum, Fernandez, Patrick Mills/Ibaka, Nenad Kristic, Thabo Sefolosha). Not to mention fellow UMass alum Marcus Camby and Greg Oden’s, um, manhood.

Moving beyond the players and looking at the laundry, we (that being the royal we) also find a lot to like. Each team has one of the best fan bases in all of sports. This makes a lot of sense when you consider both are the only pro game going in each state, unless we want to include the Tulsa Shock and Portland Timbers (hint: we don’t). The teams are run by very smart front offices that embrace new statistical analysis, excel in salary cap management and building through the draft that should keep these teams relevant for the next decade. Both franchises have NBA championships, though neither has won since the ‘70s and OKC won theirs in Seattle. In addition, both franchises maintain a tortured history in one form or another that includes Portland’s continued failure to draft a healthy franchise big man and the current Thunder owners stealing the team from Seattle.

But what I, and I think many other people, find most compelling about the current iterations of these two teams is the collection of young talent each has assembled over the past five years and the success and potential of that talent. These teams represent the most recent examples of “The NBA’s Next Great Young Team.”

So, in one of the most deeply buried leads ever, over the next few weeks I plan to use the Thunder and Trail Blazers as case studies for “The NBA’s Next Great Young Team.” I’m still not sure what this will entail, but it will include the following among other things:

• How do we define “The NBA’s Next Great Young Team?”
• A look back at each franchise to understand how each were knocked down before they could be built up again
• How were the Thunder and Blazers built?
• The tremendous expectations placed on each team in the year it was all supposed to come together and how they responded
• The similarities and differences between the Thunder and Blazers
• Looking at teams over the last 30 or so years to find other examples of “The NBA’s Next Great Young Team” and how they succeeded
• Deciding whether or not this is a successful way to build a team and measuring different definitions of success
• Examining the current NBA landscape to identify teams with the potential to claim “The NBA’s NEXT Next Great Young Team”

Hopefully this is something I will carry out to the bitter end because I think it will be a great way to look through some of the more exciting teams in recent NBA history both statistically and anecdotally. If anyone has any suggestions along the way on how to make the discussion better or would like to assist in the research please let me know. And I know this isn’t Boston sports, but I think we can all get our fill of that plenty of other places for the time being, like here.

Stay tuned for Part 1 of “The NBA’s Next Great Young Team.”