2012 AL Central Preview

Can you believe Prince has lost weight since then?

1) Detroit Tigers

2) Kansas City Royals

3) Cleveland Indians

4) Chicago White Sox

5) Minnesota Twins

Looking Back

Last year, we predicted the White Sox would take the title on the strength of perennial power source Adam Dunn and the division's deepest rotation. While the rotation was certainly deep, it lacked the elite top talent that ultimately won the division for the Tigers (who we predicted to finish second, so not too shabby). What doomed the White Sox was Dunn, Alex Rios, Gordon Beckham and Brent Morel all getting at least 440 At Bats and all posting OBPs between .265 and .296. Yikes. A team can get away with one or maybe even two sub .300 OBPs in their everyday lineup, but not 4 and not from defensive sieves like Dunn, Rios and Morel. We did nail the 10th Man (Joaquin Benoit with a 2.95 ERA over 61 innings for the Tigers) and the player to watch under 25 (Billy Butler with a .822 OPS in 159 games for the Ryoals). Our other big whiff? The surprising second place Indians were our pick to bring up the rear.

Looking Ahead

I mentioned in my last post that this will be baseball's most boring division this year. The reason is that I don't see any realistic contenders to the Tigers for the division crown and I don't see any other team being able to challenge for a Wild Card spot even if a second Wild Card is added (when the fuck is Bud going to make a decision on this by the way?) 

Coming back from last year's team that won the division by the largest margin of any division winner last year are the AL Cy Young and MVP Justin Verlander and MVP Candidate Miguel Cabrera. Those two players alone could be enough to win this division for the Tigers. They also bring back a couple young players who had breakouts last year in Austin Jackson and Alex Avila. I expect both to take a step back this year, but still be productive. I do predict they will get a mini breakout from strikeout machine Max Scherzer. Add in full seasons from Doug Fister and Delmon Young (who I think sucks, but whatever) and how can you not like this team? Oh ya, they got Prince Fielder too. I think we can write this one down in (virtual) ink.

One caveat on the Tigers: this could be an historically bad defense if they stick with their stated plan. As of today, Jim Leyland plans to play Prince at first, Miguel at third, Jhonny Peralta at short and Delmon in left. Prince is a bad first baseman. Miguel was a bad third baseman 5 years ago, the last time he played the position regularly. Peralta was a bad short stop who moved to third last year. And Delmon is probably the worst of all of them. On days when Verlander and Scherzer pitch, this shouldn't matter too much since both are high strikeout pitchers. Same with most of the bullpen. But when Fister, Rick Porcello or Jacob Turner/Andrew Oliver pitch things could get ugly. These 4 pitchers will put a lot of balls in play this year and without a reliable defense they could see a slew of extra baserunners. This can all be fixed pretty easily by putting Brandon Inge at 3rd on days when a groundball pitcher starts and Andy Dirks in left when a flyball pitcher starts.

The next three spots are kind of a crap shoot for me. I think these teams will all end up at about .500 this year, but the Indians should lead the pack. The team has assembled an unprecedented collection of ground ball pitchers (though Fausto Carmona could be out for the season due to his legal issues) to put in front of a decent infield defense that just got better with the addition of elite gloveman Casey Kotchman. Wouldn't it be cool if Cleveland was forced to give up its offensive current moniker and go with a rotating nickname that fit the composition of that year's teams? Wouldn't you want to buy Cleveland Worm Burners merchandise? They will also get full seasons out of promising youngsters Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhal and are hoping for better health from Grady Sizemore, Shin Soo Choo and Travis Hafner so the offense should be better this year. But it probably won't be.

The Royals are going to be a lot of "experts" break out pick this year, and for good reason. I ultimately don't think they will have enough developed talent to overcome the Tigers, let alone the Indians, but they should show flashes this year as all their minor league talent matriculates (that's a word, right?). Their talented young offense finished 6th in runs last year and returns Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, Mike Moustakas and my breakout pick for the AL, Eric Hosmer. They could also see a midseason promotion of uber prospect Wil Myers in right giving the team 5 impact bats under the age of 28. The rotation is why I think .500 is their ceiling. They made a decent trade for Jonathan Sanchez but they would need some serious improvement from "Ace" Luke Hochevar and young pitchers like Danny Duffy and Mike Montgomery would have mature quicker than they probably will if they want to contend. It will be an exciting season in beautiful Kauffman Stadium, but they will have to wait at least another year until they host a playoff game. *X-Mark's Note 2/21: I forgot to mention that the Royals under performed their expected record by 7 games last year, which gives them a little more breakout potential than I gave them. Still think they will fall short of the division, but I like them ahead of the Indians now.

The White Sox lost their best pitcher (Mark Buehrle) and second best hitter (Carlos Quentin) and yet I think they have a chance to be better than last year. Look, I would bet all three of Joe Black's testicles that Dunn, Rios and Beckham will not hit as bad as they did last year. Dunn and Rios were historically bad. Rios posted the 20th worst OBP of any player in the expansion era (since 1969) and Dunn posted the worst batting average of any player with at least 490 plate appearances ever. EVER!!! That is just impossible to repeat. The main reason I have them fourth though is because it looks like GM Kenny Williams is going to tear down the walls and start over. However, he is the most unpredictable GM this side of Ruben Amaro so I still think there is a chance they add pieces and beat last year's record.

Then there is the Twins, a team built around two former MVPs who will always have to deal with potentially career ending injuries. Justin Morneau (concussions) and Joe Mauer (knees) are expected to start the season as full time regulars. The Twins would need vintage seasons out of both to even climb out of the bottom of this top heavy division because the rest of the roster is ugly. There are very few upside players on this team. The rotation behind injury risk Francisco Liriano is low in both variability and talent. The lineup is filled with guys who don't get on base. Ben Revere and Denard Span are the only players with upside on this entire team, but even that is limited. Of course, if last year is any indication of my predictive powers...Ladies and gentlemen meet your 2012 AL Central Champions, the Minnesota Twins!

Player to Watch Over 35

Paul Konerko, 1B, White Sox, 36 years old

I love Paul Konerko's similar player list through is age 35 season. On that list of ten, there are 2 Hall of Famers (Cepeda and Jackson), 3 players who have spent or will spend a long time on the Hall of Fame ballot but will ultimately never get in through the BBWAA (Murphy, McGriff, Hodges), four contemporaries who probably won't get the required 5% of Hall Votes to stay on the ballot beyond the first year (C. Lee, D. Lee, Delgado and Ortiz), and the unique case of Palmeiro. And that seems about right to me with Konerko. He seems like 20% of a Hall of Famer, which is clearly excellent. He is a very underrated player because he has played during one of the best first base eras in history. And yet, he's still made 5 All-Star teams. He has only had one season (2003, his age-27 season when most players peak) that qualifies as below average. And yet, he posted his best overall season just two seasons ago at age 34. He was traded twice in his first full season at the age of 22. And yet, he now has 396 home runs and shows little sign of slowing down at a time when guys once again age properly. If the Chicago White Sox are to contend this year, it will be on the back of their 36 year old first baseman and best player.

Y-Factor

Delmon Young, LF/DH, Tigers

I mentioned this before: I think Delmon Young sucks. The former number 1 overall pick has not improved since he was 18. He was once considered an elite athlete and defender. Now, he's fat and slow and should never be allowed near a glove. He was once supposed to have elite power. He has never had more than 21 home runs in any season and is more likely to hit 10 than 20. He has never gotten on base (highest OBP is .336) and when he came over to the Tigers and was supposedly such a big piece of their post-season push, he got on base less than 30% of the time. With the combination of Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera in the middle of that order, I don't think it necessarily matters who they put around them, but just know that if the Tigers don't run away with this thing, Delmon Young will be Y.

Note: I was soooo tempted to have Yuniesky Betancourt in this spot, but as long as he is just a utility player he should not have too much bearing on how the Royals do this season. Of course, in Kansas City, any shit is possible. 

2012 MLB Previews are Coming

Here is a bonus link to Kurtis Blow's "Back By Popular Demand"

Hello faithful Sexy Boston Sports readers! Your favorite Bill Simmons knock-off is back and better than ever! How am I better than ever? Because in 2 short weeks Sadie Sloe Gin and I will be moving to the Fenway neighborhood, just 6 blocks away from the Pahhhhhk. The mothership has beckoned and I am answering its call. My new found proximity to all the season's home games should provide me with instant credibility (subtle stab at mainstream sports writers that probably none of you got). From my tiny bedroom I will hear every crack of the bat, roar of the crowd and calls of "Shipping up to Boston". Oh. Right. Still, this is an epic move for the Boy with the Yazzy Tattoo and I hope to provide more Sox coverage than ever this year.

For about 1/3 of all MLB teams, today is PACRD (Pitchers and Catchers Reporting Day) while the Sox celebrate PACRD tomorrow. So with that, it is time to give all of you who stuck with me through my hiatus (Collapse induced rehab) the gift of my MLB previews.

Over the next week or so, I will write up a preview of all 6 divisions starting with the most boring (AL Central) and ending with the most exciting (NL East). Like last year I will predict the standings of each division, but there will be a few changes and additions this year. First, I will briefly revisit my predictions to see how I did (SPOILER ALERT: Really bad). Then, following the preview, I will highlight two players in each division. Last year I talked about a hot player under 25 and the "10th Man", or X-factor if you will. This year I have decided to mix it up. During the Great Wild Card Comebacks of 2011 (see what I did there?), two types of players played major roles that I will highlight this year. 

The first is players over 35. Lance Berkman and Chris Carpenter were the offensive and pitching leaders for the Cardinals in their run to the World Series so this year I will try to find the next AARP member who could impact a division race. 

The second will be the Y-factor player. As in, "Y is this player allowed near a baseball diamond?" This is an award inspired by none other than John "Wilbur the Albatross" Lackey, whose 9.15 ERA in September played a major role in allowing the Rays to come back from the dead. This year I will be trying to find which player in each division could be so terrible that they negatively affect a team's chance at the playoffs.

So in typical X Mark fashion, I have wrote a 5 paragraph preview about my preview that could have been done in 3 bullet points. I'm in mid-season form already! Up first, the AL Central. Welcome back ya'll!

Super Sunday

Super Bowl 46 (Sunday - 6:29pm)

The day is finally here. Time for the incessant talk to stop. We've heard all the stories: the Giants D-line vs. the Pat's O-line and Brady. A rematch of the game that shall not be discussed. Belichick and Coughlin are both Parcells' disciples. Gronk's ankle. Brady vs. Eli in Peyton's house. Yada yada. I could write for hours about this game and still not say everything that I want to, so I'll try and keep it short. Plus I'm too damn excited to write or concentrate enough to form coherent sentences.

All I know is I've been watching the past Super Bowl DVD's over the last two weeks and couldn't wait another day. One thing that was apparent from the past Super Bowl teams was that they were all truly teams and handled adversity equally as well as their triumphs. The 2011 Patriots have certainly had their share of adversity - from losing Ms. Myra, the constant criticism of the defense, and losing back to back games for the first time since God knows when - here they are; one game away from being crowned kings of the NFL. If anything has been telling of the nature of this years Pats team, it has been Belichick's laid back attitude the past week. He's been engaging with the media, even cracking jokes and you can tell he feels his team is well prepared for the biggest game of the year.

After watching highlights from the regular season match up between the Giants and Patriots, we know this game will be a battle. Both defenses set the tone in that match up, with hard hitting and exceptional tackling, leading to a 0-0 halftime score. The Giants ultimately won as Tracy White, a career special teamer, failed miserably in his efforts to replace both Brandon Spike and Gary Guyton at linebacker who were both injured in that game. White had textbook form on how to play the worst pass coverage imaginable. Brady also had too many turnovers, and that was that. Since the return of Spikes and Chung, the defense has shown marked improvement and should perform much better than they did in the 2nd half of that game. Of course that is much easier said than done when going up against a receiving corps as talented as the Giants. The pass defense has been the ultimate question mark for this team throughout the season, now it's time for their ultimate test.

If you've read anything that I've written during the playoffs, then you'll know the keys to today's game will be turnovers and red zone efficiency. Brady will need to protect the ball much better than he did in the last match up if the Pats want to win. One other key to watch will be how strictly the referees enforce holding penalties. Watching the Giants over the past few weeks, their suspect O-line gets away with more holding penalties than any team I've seen in recent memory. If they are allowed to hold the Patriots pass rushers and give Eli time to extend plays, it could be the difference maker in tonight's game.

At the start of the playoffs, I wrote that this Giants team had the feel of one of those teams that is just destined to make a run to the Super Bowl. That feeling was stronger than ever watching Eli float passes into double coverage two weeks ago in the NFC Championship game. On two occasions, San Francisco defenders knocked each other out of the game because the passes were so bad that they collided trying to intercept them. But that stops tonight. This Patriots team has proven their mental toughness time and time again throughout the 2011 season. Belichick prepares them better than anyone. Over the past two weeks, the Patriots have gotten the feel of being the underdog even though their 2 and a half point favorites. In a season which they dedicated to the loss of their beloved first lady, tonight the Patriots deliver Bob Kraft his 4th Lombardi trophy in the honor of his sweetheart.

New England 31 - New York 20

The Game That Changed It All: 10 Years Later

Rather than bore anyone to death by rehashing the same story lines that have been on repeat for the past two weeks, I figured I'd take a different route - right down memory lane and celebrate the 10 year anniversary of the Greatest Game of All Time .

February 3rd, 2002. New Orleans, Louisiana. The New England Patriots are 14 point underdogs vs. "The Greatest Show on Turf" St. Louis Rams. The Rams are the class of the NFL, while the Pats came out of nowhere after their incumbent QB went down and was replaced by a 2nd year QB who was drafted in the 6th round. New England has never won a Super Bowl - losing both of their prior appearances (both in New Orleans) - and no one is expecting an upset. After watching the Red Sox for the past 84 years, the region knows better than to get their hopes up. But they did beat the Raiders in the Snow Bowl, and went into Pittsburgh to win the AFC Championship, so you never know.

Right from the pregame introductions you could tell there was something different about this team. What is now an unoriginal cliche started on this night. The Rams went through their pregame intros coming out one by one and recognizing some of the greatest offensive players in the league - Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Issac Bruce, Torry Holt. Once they finished, something happened that had never been seen before in the Super Bowl. "Now introducing" boomed Pat Summerall in his ever distinct tone "the American Football Conference Champion New England Patriots" - followed by a swarm of blue jerseys flying out of the tunnel. This was a team, they got here together and wanted to show the world the power of their togetherness both with their introduction and with their play.

What I remember most about this game was made apparent from the first drive - the Pats were going to make St. Louis earn every yard and make their receivers pay for every catch. Each reception was met with a punishing hit into the Super Dome turf. The Rams weren't used to this type of abuse, and it eventually payed off with a forced fumble on Ricky Prohel late in the first half. The teams battled back and forth for most of the first two quarters, with the defenses having the clear advantage. St. Louis took an early 3-0 lead, and held on to it for the first quarter.

The Pats had been applying consistent pressure, but weren't getting quite close enough to Warner. Warner took a short drop and was looking to hit a quick slant when Mike Vrabel came in untouched, got his hands up and altered the throw. This allowed Ty Law to jump the route, and he was off to the races. Touchdown Pats. The Pats sideline was going crazy, the fans were going crazy, we were going crazy in my friends living room - could they actually do this? (Downer side note: Watching the replays, it's hard to imagine that nowadays that play would not have drawn some kind of roughing the passer/illegal hands to the face penalty with the modern (read: pussy) 'protect the QB at all cost' rules. Very happy the NFL was tougher back then.)

The defensive struggle continued until Prohel's aforementioned fumble. Terrell Buckley had a solid return, getting the ball past midfield with just under two minutes left in the half. This led to the only offensive TD for the Pats on the day. Brady surgically executed the two minute drill - complete with a patented NE bubble screen to Troy Brown, and a toss-sweep out of the shotgun (when was the last time a team ran that play) to Kevin Faulk. In vintage Faulk form he picked up the first down on third and short, snuck out of bounds and saved NE's final time out. The drive culminated with a picture perfect throw from Brady to David Patten in the corner of the end-zone for a TD with just over 30 seconds left. The Patriots were up 14-3 at the half and en route to the upset.

Those who follow the Pats know that Belichick's main defensive philosophy is to take away the oppositions primary offensive threat and make them play in a style they are uncomfortable with. For all the hoopla that "The Greatest Show on Turf's" passing game got, it was evident from the start that NE was focused on stopping Marshall Faulk on the ground. The Pats frequently loaded the box with defenders and were playing very disciplined, gap control D against the explosive Faulk. Marshall was able to get very little going in the first half, with St. Louis even resorting to using him in an end around to try and free him up. As much as NE was trying to contain Faulk inside, it looked like NE didn't think the Rams could set the edge against their run game and Antowain Smith. They looked like Lombardi's Packers running power sweeps for much of the game. I was never the biggest fan of Antowain, but he had a very productive game and ran hard throughout.

Another thing that stands out is the sound tackling that the Pats executed that day. There was a 2nd down and 3 play where Faulk looks like he is finally about to break contain when Bruschi scrapes across and meets Faulk in the hole and lays a textbook form tackle on him to stop him short of the first down. On the flip-side, St. Louis' TD to tie the game late in the 4th was the results of some of the most feeble attempts at tackling that I've ever witnessed.

As has been demonstrated throughout the playoffs this year, turnovers played a major role in this game. 17 of New Englands 20 points were a direct result of turnovers - Ty Law's pick 6 was one of the TD's; and Terrell Buckley's recovery and ensuing return of Prohel's fumble set up Pattens TD to close the half. O.T.I.S. Smith had an interception when Torry Holt slipped running his route to set up a field goal. Warner also threw another pick to give the Patriots a huge advantage in the turnover battle. The Rams also had another turnover resulting in a TD called back (4th & Goal from the 3 - Warner fumbles and Tebucky Jones returns it for a TD) when Lefty Mcginest tackled Faulk on the world's most blatant defensive holding penalty.

One stat I found amazing: the Rams didn't get into Red Zone until 4th quarter. As talented as the Rams offense was, nothing speaks greater volumes about Belichick's preparation than that. Also of note considering I've been preaching the importance of Red Zone efficiency all year - the Rams came into the game with the #1 Red Zone Offense in the NFL, while the Pats ranked #1 in Red Zone D.

As well as the Pats D played, the Rams quick strike offense was able to come back and tie the game with 90 seconds remaining. Just enough time for a legend to be born. We all know the story of Tom Brady by now, but on this night he was just a scrappy 24 year old kid playing in the biggest game of his life. The Patriots offense had struggled to pick up points for much of the game, but all they needed was 3 on this drive to hoist their first Lombardi Trophy. The Rams settled into their prevent defense, leaving nothing open downfield for Brady. No worries - a few of checkdowns to J.R. Redmon and the drive was under way. The Rams sloppy tackling allowed Redmon to slip out of bounds and stop the clock just past midfield. A couple of incomplete passes and the Pats were looking at 3rd down with only 29 seconds left. Then Charlie Weis called in the most famous play in Patriots history; '64-Max-All-In'. Brady dropped back, scanned the field and found Troy Brown cutting across the middle for 23 yards, and again the Rams poor tackling let Brown slip out of bounds. One more completion and the stage was set for Adam Vinatieri to kick the game winning 48 yard field goal. Holy. Shit.

Red, white and blue confetti everywhere; Antowain Smith high stepping across the field; Lonnie Paxton doing "snow" angels, Belichick hugging Lawyer Milloy. They did it. The Patriots won the effing Super Bowl. No one said it better than Vinatieri, as he turned to Bob Kraft and said "We shocked the World, but we didn't shock ourselves". Here's hoping the Pats give us a proper anniversary gift come Sunday.

Conference Championship Games

Three games left in the NFL season. Hard to believe. It comes down to today to see who will represent their Conference in the Super Bowl. Both games are great match ups of very close teams, and those that have been playing the best over the last few months of the season. When it comes to picking the games - each one seems to get harder to decide the more you think about it; but here goes nothing. Enjoy them both, they should be very entertaining.

AFC

Baltimore vs. New England (Sun - 3:00pm)

So now that the Pats proved they can win a playoff game, it's time to do it against a more formidable foe and earn a trip back to the Super Bowl. After last weeks' cakewalk over Denver, a lot of people are hopping back on the Pats bandwagon - but Baltimore ain't no Denver. And no, that has nothing to do with Tebow. The difference is Denver's slightly above average Defense vs. Baltimore's top notch D. Last week we discussed the importance of turnovers and performance in the Red Zone as keys to winning in the playoffs. I think all of the playoff games so far showed us just how important turnovers are, so lets focus on the red zone for this match up. During the regular season, the Pats sported the 2nd highest Offensive Red Zone TD percentage in the NFL, while Baltimore had the 1st ranked Defensive Red Zone TD percentage. So this is a match up of strength vs. strength in the most important stat of the game. The Ravens also ranked 2nd in 3rd down defense. Those are the two key areas to watch in my opinion.

Last week I talked quite a bit about how good Suggs, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Ngata are; and Ed Reed showed he's still the best in the league with that ridiculous pick to end the Houston game. Suggs and Ngata will be key today - can they generate pressure on Brady without needs to bring extra rushers? Both have had success against NE in the past, lets hope they don't today. Another Baltimore defender that will be key to watch is Bernard "ACL Killer" Pollard. He was the one who took out Tom's knee in '08 and was also in coverage on Wes in '09 when Wes tore his ACL. The Pats didn't face Pollard last season, so watch your ACL's today boys. Pollard is a large Strong Safety and figures to be used in coverage against Gronk and Hernandez.

On the other side of the ball, Baltimore starts with Ray Rice. He led their team in both rushing and receiving yards, and limiting him will be priority #1 for the Pats D. The run D looked stout last week against Denver's NFL leading rushing attack, but Baltimore uses a much different style than the Tebow Triple Option. Baltimore loves going big, using extra linemen, unbalanced lines and letting Rice run behind the NFL's best fullback, Vonte Leach. This is a true smashmouth running team, so the Pats big bodies are going to have to step it up today. We saw how explosive Ray Rice can be in the 2009 playoff game, with his 89 yard TD run on the games opening play. Having Spikes and Chung back should help in a major way to stop his running, but what about receiving. Dane Fletcher's first real performance in the NFL came in 2010 when he was effectively used as a spy on Rice coming out of the backfield, so that would be a good place to start. Elsewhere, WR Torrey Smith has had flashes of looking like a fellow AFC North WR, Mike Wallace. Smith is a burner and a true deep threat, someone to keep an eye on today. Lee Evans is a familiar face from his Buffalo days, and has traditionally given the Pats a hard time.

It should be a hard fought battle today, and a close game either way. I think the Pats D will stand tall, and Tom will have enough time to pick about Baltimore.

New England 28 - Baltimore 20



NFC

NY Giants vs. San Francisco (Sun - 6:30pm)

Both teams managed to pull the upsets last week and knock off the two teams that most thought were the safest bets to win the Super Bowl. The Giants still continue to have that look that I discussed two weeks ago, and San Fran had one of the more exciting wins in recent playoff memory (barely hanging on for the win despite 5 New Orleans turnovers). I haven't had a chance to watch San Fran much this year, so I don't really know what to expect. In the battle of #1 overall picks from 2004 and 2005, it's the defenses that will decide the outcome. Is San Frans D good enough to stop all of NYG's weapons? Will their offensive line be able to protect Alex Smith? I wasn't quite sure who to pick, but after typing the name Alex Smith in the same section as NFC Championship Game, it seems unfathomable. He's been a great story so far this season, but I see that coming to an end today.


NY Giants 20 - San Francisco 13

NFL Ramblings

Some random thoughts around the NFL as we warm up for Conference Championship Weekend.

• Get ready for one of these story lines to be on constant repeat following Sunday's games:

1. The Rematches: If the Giants win we'll have a Super Bowl rematch either way - one of which we're not allowed to talk about here.
   
2. The Brothers: This one was already covered enough Thanksgiving night, but yes, we know, Jim & John Harbaugh are brothers.
   
3. The Boyhood Idol: Hopefully the one we get to hear. Tom Brady grew up as a 49ers fan in the Bay Area, idolizing Joe Montana. Now he faces Montana's former team to try and tie his record of 4 Super Bowl rings.

• When Mikhail Prokhorov bought the New Jersey Nets, Bill Simmons dubbed him "Mutant Russian Mark Cuban", because of how loaded he is and how he loves to toss his money around. After listening to a recent interview with MJD, it seems we may need a nickname for the Jags new owner, Shahid Khan. Jones-Drew put it best - have you seen his boat? I thought I was hot stuff when my dad bought a 22' boat last year; Khan's boat, the Kistmet, jusssst nudges by ours at 223'. So what do we call him? Pakistani NFL Mark Cuban?
  
• I didn't get to see the Saints vs. San Fran game last weekend because I was in Foxboro, but from what I hear it was one for the ages - and the 9ers D looked lethal. I'm can't wait to watch it on NFL replay.
• Gillette has been (fairly) criticized over the years for not being very loud, but Saturday night was about as loud as I've ever heard it. From the moment we walked in you could feel the energy, and it didn't let up until the game was over. The seats were shaking and no one sat for all 4 quarters. Here's hoping Sunday's crowd will bring the same enthusiasm.
• Of all of the nonsense penalties that exist in the NFL, why isn't there one for all of the injuries that the Broncos were faking as a feeble attempt to slow down the Pats hurry up offense?
• Mel Kiper usually gets about 4 out of 32 picks correct in his mock drafts, so why must he start putting them out already, before the season is even over?
• Great to see the Pats will have 4 honorary game captains from the '96 AFC Championship team on Sunday. Troy Brown, Bruschi and Ty Law were all obvious picks, and I was hoping to see Lefty McGinest but you can't argue with the selection of Bledsoe. Should get the crowd rocking (not that we'll need much motivation).
• Glad to see Philbin got the head coaching job in Miami. Hopefully some welcomed news after a rough few weeks for their family.
  

Round 2: Fight (Divisional Playoff Preview)

After a relatively un-wild Wildcard Weekend (save for Denver's OT thriller), it's time to move on to the divisional round. If we learned anything from last weeks games, it's the importance of turnovers. Houston moved on thanks to J.J. Watt's fancy pick-6 as well as Cincy dropping a surefire one of their own. 14 point swing. New Orleans "blew-out" the Lions in a game that would have been a whole closer if Detroit had caught any of the 6 interceptions that came their way. And of course the Giants D help the Falcons offense scoreless when Matt Ryan executed two 4th and 1 QB sneaks exactly how you would expect a player from B.C. to, resulting in two pseudo turnovers. Take care of the ball, and get touchdowns in the red zone, not field goals. That is my wisdom for you this weekend.

AFC

Denver @ New England (Sat - 8:00pm)
Can the Pats finally get over the hump, or will they lose a 3rd straight home playoff game? Hard to believe there would ever be a possibility of that happening, but that is what's on the line when Tebow and Company come to town. The Pats beat Denver pretty handily in Week 15, but it wasn't as pretty as the final score looked. Denver rushed for 160+ in the FIRST QUARTER until the Pats D stiffed for the rest of the game - but lets not forget that Denver lost Willis McGahee for the remainder of the game at the end of the 1st (although NE was without Chung and Spikes). Denver also gifted the Pats fumbles on two straight possessions, followed by a muffed punt that New England recovered. As much as I would love for that to happen again, I don't see it.

The proven formula for beating the Pats over the past few seasons has been getting pressure on Brady without bringing extra pass rushers and making him uncomfortable in the pocket. Can Denver get to Brady without blitzing? New England handled Dumerville and Von Miller pretty well in the first meeting (save for Elvis's one monster sack of Tom), so here's hoping for the same success. Look for Denver to take some shots down the field against the suspect Pats pass D just like they did against Pitt last week. Will they be able to connect on any of these or draw any pass interference calls? We shall see. It should be a fun one, look for me amongst the frozen fans.

New England 34 - Denver 17

Houston @ Baltimore (Sun - 1:00pm)

At first glance, this one has the look of a blowout. A rookie QB on the road at one of the toughest stadiums to play, going up against a dominating defense. TJ Yates looked serviceable against Cincy last week, but Cincy ain't no B-mo'. Houston relies so much on their dominant run game, which is all well and good except when you're facing Haloti Ngata & Co.. For all the hype that Ray Ray and Suggs get, Ngata is the best player on that defense - and probably the best d-lineman in the NFL. And of course there is Ed Reed.

The only cause for hesitation is that you could take everything I just wrote above and flip it to Baltimore and have it be (pretty) true. Flacco isn't a rookie, but I have about as much faith as him as I do in Yates. They're also extremely dependent running game and are facing one of the leagues best defenses. Ok, so I guess I trust Flacco a littttle more than Yates, and Houston doesn't have Ngata or Ed Reed, but Wade Phillips has that D playing like they do. At the end of the day, I don't see Yates being able to produce enough in order for Houston to pull the upset.

Baltimore 24 - Houston 17

NFC

New Orleans @ San Fran (Sat - 4:30pm)
The most intriguing game of the weekend. The Saints have looked unstoppable over the past 2 months, but have yet to prove they can beat a good opponent outdoors. The 9ers are the surprise team of 2012 - but how do we know they're for real? Alex Smith hasn't eclipsed the 300 yard passing mark this season - will they be able to keep pace with Drew Brees? Will the Saints offense be able to show any balance by running the ball against the NFL's most stout run D? And the 9ers pass D is no pushover either. The one is a battle of old school "defense wins championships" NFL vs. new school "every QB in the league set a franchise passing record this season" NFL. It should be exciting to watch, something I'll be trying to figure out how to do from a freezing parking lot in Foxboro.

New Orleans 27 - San Francisco 13

NY Giants @ Green Bay (Sun - 4:30pm)
Now how the hell do I pick in this one? After what I wrote last week about the Giants, followed by the tragic news out of Green Bay this week, this game has all the making of an upset special. But everyone seems to be hopping on that bandwagon, which usually means it's not going to happen. What to do, what to do? The Packers have been the leagues best team all season, and were one game away from us being in the midst of a barrage of 19-0 talk. The Giants gave them a hell of a test in the regular season, and have been known for knocking off juggernauts in recent seasons. I think the return of Greg Jennings, A.J. Hawk and Desmond Bishop should be enough to keep the Pack from stumbling.

Green Bay 31 - NY Giants 20

Welcome Back My Friend To The Show That Never Ends

When word first broke that Patriots Offensive Coordinator Bill O'Brien was the leading candidate for the head coaching vacancy at Sandusky State, I couldn't help but think - here we go again. Ever since the Pats run of Super Bowls from '01-'04, there has been a steady drain of top talent; both on and off the field. I don't need to name all the names, but the Offensive Coordinator position is one worth discussion. Following the 2004 season, Charlie Weis left to being his failed tenure as Head Coach at Notre Dame. That move was bittersweet for me at the time, because as much as I hated to see Charlie leave, I was ecstatic about his prospects with ND. Following the Patriots, my next love in football is the Irish. I grew up watching games with my grandfather, and my uncle even got me a subscription to their newspaper - the Blue & Gold. When they sucked, it made losing Charlie even worse.

The Patriots quickly filled the (rather large) vacancy with an Offensive Assistant that few had heard of before in Josh McDaniels. In 2005, the Patriots offense struggled compared to the success they had seen under Weis. Granted they had just about the single worst WR corps ever assembled, but still. 2006 showed some signs of progress, but with limited talent and further growing pains, McDaniels was still no Charlie. Then along came 2007 and the new year brought some new toys in Randy and Wes - and a whole slew of new NFL records. Charlie who? All was right in the world until the game that shall not be discussed. Expectations were as high as could be to start 2008, for all of 0:08 seconds. Without Tom, McDaniels continued to shine - keeping the Pats offense running in high gear with a QB who hadn't started a game since High School.

The excitement of Brady's return in 2009 was tempered by the departure of his friend and new star of the coaching staff to Denver. Speculation was abound on who would replace McDaniels, and the answer was...well...no one, technically speaking. Belichick would not name an Offensive Coordinator, but another relatively unknown Offensive Assistant would be calling the plays, this time it was to be Bill O'Brien. The offense regressed as a whole in 2009, which of course can be partially contributed to Brady's recovery - but what I'll remember most about that season is how well their putrid performance against Baltimore in the playoffs summed up the offense. I remember reading several articles after that game in which Baltimore defenders boasted how they knew what plays were coming before the snap for the majority of the game. Were they stealing signs? No, we ruined that for everyone. The Pats offense was the single worst thing an offense can be - predictable. And one dimensional. This O'Brien kid sucks.

In an effort to shorten this article, I'll assume anyone reading this article knows about the past two seasons. The early season trade of Randy in 2010, that O'Brien and the offense overcame to go 14-2; the emergence of the studliest TE combo in all of football; and the continued growth and creativity of O'Briens play calling throughout 2011. Now it was time for him to leave. And so it appeared a disconcerting trend was in full effect when it came to Pats Offensive Coordinators:
a.) Promote from within following departure
b.) Suck Year 1
c.) Make some progress Year 2, but not elite
d.) Be great Year 3
e.) Leave
I, for one was not excited to see who the "Next Man Up" was this time around. I mean Tom only has some many years of being the Greatest Quarterback of All Time left, so I wasn't ready to suck for two years while they broke in a new O.C..

When rumors started swirling about a possible McDaniels return, I tried to treat it the same way I do every time the Pats have two first round picks - be excited, but keep your expectations low. Very low. Then this. Then this:



So yes, I just took about 2,000 words to explain how I feel about Josh McDaniels' return and give you a history lesson you already knew, when McLovin did it in all of 6 seconds. You're the sucker who read it.

Wildcard Weekend

Ahh the most bittersweet time of year. The hoopla of the holidays has past, and all that stands between us and a long winter are 11 games of the most entertaining sport being played at the highest level. All due respect to March Madness, the NFL Playoffs are the single greatest event in all of sports from this perspective. You will see records, bones and hearts broken; unimaginable plays of every variety and one team crowned as world champs. It all starts this weekend, so sit back and enjoy.

AFC

Cincy @ Houston (Sat - 4:30pm)
These two teams met back in Week 14 in Cincy, culminating in a T.J. Yates to Kevin Walter TD with 0:02 left for the 20-19 win. The crowd at Paul Brown stadium that day was the second smallest in the history of the stadium. The crowd was even smaller than one of the University of Cincinnati's home games - yes, the University of Cincinnati - so I'm picking Houston just based on principle.

But seriously, this is the toughest pick for Wildcard Weekend in my opinion. Both teams have top notch defenses; rookie QB's and plenty of question marks. Houston boasts the best running back tandem in the NFL (Arian Foster and Ben Tate), along with one of the best offensive lines in the league. It is the first ever playoff game in the franchise history, so the atmosphere at Reliant Stadium should be Seattle-esque. I would love a Cincy win so the Pats could avoid playing Pittsburgh next weekend; but with a healthy Andre Johnson, the home crowd, and their aggressive D Houston is the pick.

Houston 17 - Cincy 16


Pittsburgh @ Denver (Sun 4:30pm)
Jesus Jr. vs. Roethelisberger. Denver's fairy tale season has sputtered of late, losing the last 3 games, as teams seem to have figured out the Tebow offense and the defense hasn't been as opportunistic. However, Pittsburgh lost Rashard Mendenhall for the season (not that he did much this year anyway), Roethelisberger has a high ankle sprain and All-Pro center Pouncey is hobbled. All that said, Pitt is a far better team and I don't see the sputtering Denver offense putting up enough points to pull this one out. Although, if the game is close in the 4th quarter...watch out.


Pittsburgh 20 - Denver 10


NFC

Detroit @ N'awlins (Sat - 8:00pm)
If you like points, the most entertaining match up of Round 1. Mr. Brees is playing on another level and Stafford has stepped his game up of late (not to mention he has the biggest freak in the NFL as his #1 target). The undisciplined Lions cost themselves over 200 yards in penalties in their last visit to New Orleans. If I didn't hate their putz of a coach so much I might say that they'll clean it up this time around, but I don't like Jim Schwartz so no. Not to mention the Saints are in the dome:



P.S. - watch Jonathan Vilma because he is a beast.

New Orleans 41 - Detroit 27


Atlanta @ NYG (Sun - 1:00pm)
Whether you believe in destiny or not, there is no denying that some seasons there are teams that get "lucky" and catch all the breaks on the way to the Super Bowl. The '05 Steelers survived vs. the Colts because Bob Sanders' wife decided to stab him in the leg the morning of the game, leaving him a step slow and allowing Roethelisberger to trip him up and save a surfire fumble return TD and win the game (followed by the least entertaining Super Bowl of all time). The "Tuck Rule" in '01, and countless other examples. As much as it pains me to say this, the Giants have that feel this year. Now I'm not saying they're going to win the Super Bowl (God do I hope not), but they certainly have enough luck rolling to make it past Round 1.

The D-line is undeniably one of the best in the league at rushing the passer, and Jason Pierre-Paul has emerged as one of the elite overall players at his position. My fingers won't allow me to type about Eli in a positive light, but lets just say he doesn't look like himself this year. All that coupled with the fact that Matt Ryan is running the show for Atlanta adds up to a Giants win. Shit.

NYG 23 - Atlanta 17

Baaaaahahahaha

In need of a good laugh after a few long days of work to welcome you back from the holidays? Me too.

Rex on Feb. 24th, 2011




Rex on Jan. 2nd, 2012

Surreal scene as Jets clean lockers, changes loom.

You could read the whole article, or just the one part you need to know:

"He was crying"

Way to go 8-8 after guaranteeing a Super Bowl asshat.

Game 16 - Today Redemption is spelled P-A-T's

Hello old friends, Landies here just checking in to let all the SBS readers know that we have not been shut down by the FCC, CIA, CTU, or any other organization. I'd like to congratulate XMark and myself for both getting new "real" jobs, where we have to do actual work on the job rather than blog. That coupled with writing nearly 40 pages of papers for my finals led to my Baxter like disappearance. But fear not - just like Baxter, I have returned to eat a whole wheel of cheese and befriend the Kodiak's to save the day. Or just write about the Patriots. Although perhaps I should just stay away seeing how the Pats have thrown together a nice little winning streak during my hiatus. Anywho, I have plans for quite a few posts over the next several weeks, but today we'll just touch on a few brief topics regarding the Bills.

• Allow me to be the 854563168th person to compare this weeks game to the "Lawyer Milloy Bowl" from 2003 - the year when Belichick cut Lawyer before week one, shortly followed by Buffalo kicking our ass 31-0 on opening day - highlighted (lowlighted?) by 350+lb Sam Adams returning an INT for a TD (and one of the more feeble moments of Brady's career). Things came full circle in the NFL world, as the Pats came back to beat Buffalo by the same 31-0 score in Week 17 en route to their 2nd Lombardi Trophy. This of course was the last time the Bills beat N.E. until Brady's 4 INT debacle way back in Week 3 when people still thought Buffalo was good. Buffalo came out of the gates at 5-2, signed Ryan Fitzpatrick to a $59 million extension (yes, you read that correctly), and promptly shit the bed - now standing at 6-9.
  
• The losses of Fred Jackson (2nd in the NFL in total yards when he went out) and All-Pro DT Kyle Williams obviously played a big role in this downfall; but this is not the same opponent we saw way back in September. Even though the Bills look like a pushover of an opponent, I expect to see the "full 60 minute effort" that every Patriot has been preaching for the past month.
  

A few more notes from Sundays game:

• The #1 seed is important mainly because of the struggles of Baltimore (3-4 on the road and 8-0 at home) and Pittsburgh (4-3 on the road and 7-1 at home).
  
• We've seen the Pats set hundreds of impressive records over the past decade, but here is on that is on the opposite end of the spectrum: If the Patriots give up 135 passing yards on Sunday, they will set the single season record for most passing yards allowed. Considering they've given up nearly 300 yards passing per game this season, I'd say this record stands a pretty good chance at falling. Great job guys.
• Brady is set to become one of only 3 QB's ever (4 if Rodgers reaches the milestone today) to throw for over 5,000 yards in a season. He is having an MVP caliber season, posting absurd numbers and carrying the D, but is being overshadowed by Rodgers and Brees. He also need 4 TD's to reach the 40 TD mark on the year.
  
• While the loss of Fred Jackson was clearly a huge blow for the Bills, it has allowed C.J. Spiller a chance to shake the "bust" label that was quickly being assigned to his name after a dismal rookie season. Spiller has shown plenty of the explosive play-making ability that made him such a high draft pick last year. I looks for the Pats to key on Spiller on defense, making him priority number one.
• Both Spikes and Chung will be active for the first time in over a month today, so it will be nice to see them get some warm up action for the postseason. Also something to watch - with the quality play of Dane Fletcher over the past couple weeks, will Spikes get the start or has Fletcher done enough to secure the role?
• A non-Patriots note: today marks the final game of Jason Taylor's career. Always a Pats nemesis, Taylor was one of the best at his position throughout his career, a top notch leader and hopefully can deliver one last knockout blow to the Jets playoff hopes today.

On that note, I'll see you all in this space over the next several weeks. I wish you a Happy and Healthy 2012 and here's hoping the world doesn't end.

Bring out your short stops!

Pretty exciting Winter Meetings this year, no? Aside from the Miami Marlins' (gonna take some getting used to) spending spree and the Albert Pujols derby, there has been some closer musical chairs, a rush on mediocre utility infielders, some smaller trades and a couple players (Papi) tucking their tales between their legs and accepting arbitration to come back to their old teams.

One very interesting development that could have an impact on the Red Sox is that the top 2 short stops on the market, Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins, are about to come off the market. Reyes took Miami's sweet sweet tax-payer-robbed-stadium money and Rollins appears to be heading back to the Phillies. What that leaves on the free agent market is Rafael Furcal and a bunch of players that probably belong in Eric Idle's wheel barrow (with Miguel Tejada playing the role of the dude saying "I'm not dead yet!") and a lot of teams needing to replace equally decaying options.

Enter Boston. The Red Sox find themselves in a position of relative strength with 2 and a half short stops on the big league team (Mike Aviles should not be considered a full time option) and the hopeful short stop of the future knocking on the major league door. With David Ortiz back (he is going to accept arbitration), Kevin Youkilis will likely stay at third base so the Red Sox are left with Jed Lowrie and Marco Scutaro fighting for the starting SS gig. Both players have been injury prone and neither is very expensive so the team could just hang onto both. But with Aviles as a backup and Jose Iglesias possibly joining the team after the All-Star break or in September, Boston can seriously think about trading Scutaro or Lowrie. Both offer a team in need a serious improvement over the remaining free agent options save for Furcal. So let's see if we can match up one of our guys with a team in need and see if they have some useful pitching to send back in a deal (because let's be honest, pitching is really the top need of this Boston team).

First, a list of all the teams that need a short stop, as I see it:
Baltimore
Minnesota
Oakland
Seattle
Mets
Atlanta
Milwaukee
St. Louis
Pittsburgh
Houston
San Fran

Right away, I think we can cross Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Houston off the list. They are all either just starting to rebuild or still rebuilding. Scutaro would definitely not be a fit and though Lowrie is youngish (28 next year), he is entering his first year of arbitration so he's not totally cheap, so I don't think he'd be a fit for these teams.

Minnesota has enough (shitty) options to make do at short so they should be out. Seattle has Brendan Ryan who is one of the game's best defensive short stops; they seem to understand the value of strong defense at premium positions, but if they decide this is a position where they want more offense they could pick up the phone and call Ben Cherington, but I doubt it. Ditto Oakland and Cliff Pennington (unless they want Lowrie at third).

That leaves 5 teams that could be intrigued by Lowrie or Scutaro if they whiff on Furcal. Here they are in reverse order of who I think is the best fit (not necessarily the most likely to make a deal):

5) Mets
I have seen conflicting reports saying the Mets are looking to deal anybody that isn't bolted down (David Wright) and that the Mets are not ready to tear it all down. In the former case, the Mets probably aren't a fit, unless teams view Lowrie as a short stop of the future type. In the latter, Scutaro would be a great fit. The Mets just lost one of their franchise players (Reyes) and have someone they think could be his replacement in Ruben Tejada. Tejada will be just 22 years old this year. He had a decent season last year filling in for the injured Reyes, but I think he could use more seasoning in AAA. The Mets have been notorious for rushing their prospects the last half decade so they probably see him as their starter next year, but Scutaro would provide them a great opportunity to be patient.

The Mets have some interesting pitching options to send back to the Sox in the bullpen and the rotation. 25-year old Jonathan Niese is the best starter available, but Scutaro won't bring him to Boston. R.A. Dickey would be a really cool addition because he is Tim Wakefield's knuckle ball heir and could spend a season learning from Wake, but Scutaro still probably is not enough. Bobby Parnell was given the opportunity to close last year, but blew 6 saves in 12 chances so the Mets went out and signed two potential new closers. He has a high strike out rate and he puts a lot of men on base, but I think he'd be worth a look. He'd be my target.

4) St. Louis
Had I wrote this yesterday when it looked like Pujols was going to Miami, I would have put St. Louis number 1. If the team lost Albert they probably would have used their money to improve their rotation in the form of Mark Buerhle, C.J. Wilson or Edwin Jackson and would have had some pitchers to trade. Now, with Pujols coming back they probably can't afford any of those pitchers (especially Buerhle, because, you know, he's not a free agent anymore) so they do not have as much starting depth to trade. In addition, I see this as the most likely landing spot for Furcal, who won a long overdue World Series ring with the team last year.

3) San Fran
I've long since given up trying to figure out what Brian Sabean thinks when putting together his teams. He did an incredible job drafting Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner (not to mention Buster Posey), but seems to have no idea how to put together an offense. The team wasted so many roster spots on aging veterans who can't hit last year that they failed to capitalize on the second best pitching staff in baseball. Right now they appear poised to give the job to 25-year old Brandon Crawford. The same Brandon Crawford who posted a triple slash line of .204/.288/.296 last year.

Should Sabean decide that offense is a priority (because it is), they have some good bullpen arms to deal for Scutaro including Jeremy Affeldt, Javy Lopez (former Sox) and, my choice, Sergio Romo and his 13.1 strike outs per nine. Since Sabean looooooooooooves veterans, Scutaro is the more likely target. However, if I were running the Giants, I would target Lowrie. And if I were simultaneously running the Red Sox (a boy can dream, it is the holidays) I would only take Romo for Lowrie.

2) Atlanta
The Braves are cheap. Let's just get that out of the way. In that event, they will most likely settle for one of the bottom of the barrel players on the market like Orlando Cabrera or Alex Gonzalez again (to Red Sox fans that long for these players, they are nowhere near what they used to be). They are another offense-starved team that could really use either Scutaro or Lowrie, but with Scutaro's $6 million salary and Lowrie entering arbitration, the Braves could be scared off. Lucky for us, the Red Sox have a lot of money and could afford to kick in some money in any deal with the Braves.

Atlanta could part with Kris Medlen, Peter Moylan or lefty Eric O'Flaherty for Scutaro with that aforementioned money kicked in. OR, the Sox could aim for a starting pitcher like Mike Minor or Jair Jurjens (I prefer Minor) if they want to expand the deal to include either Ryan Kalish or Josh Reddick and a prospect. This is unlikely, but it is definitely my favorite option if they could make it work. A starter would be a much more important add to this team than a bullpen arm, especially a young one.

1) Milwaukee
Let's run through what it takes for a team to make a trade one more time:

• A need: The Brewers employed Yuni Betancourt at short last year, one of the worst players in baseball for several years now. Their top two shortstops in the minors last year were 16 and 29 years old.
• Money: The team is probably not going to bring back Prince Fielder; they whiffed on Jimmy Rollins (and will probably whiff on Furcal); they may or may not bring in Aramis Ramirez to play third but that shouldn't break the bank.
• Assets: The Brewers had a very good bullpen last year that they improved at the deadline with the acquisition of Francisco Rodriguez, who is now a free agent. Except, reports are that he is set to accept the Brewers offer of arbitration tonight, meaning he will return to the team on a 1-year deal, likely north of $10 million. I think the man formerly known as K-Rod is the perfect return for Marco Scutaro. The Sox would only take on $4-7 million in this deal. The Brewers get a solid short stop on a 1 year deal so they free up money in subsequent years to extend either Shaun Marcum or Zack Greinke, or both. Finally, the Sox get a motivated K-Rod in either the 8th or 9th inning looking to prove that he can close again and get a bigger contract in 2012 when the closer market shouldn't be as flooded as this year. With the differences in salary, the Sox may even be able to ask for a second bullpen arm that would deepen the pen. If I am Ben Cherington, I am eagerly waiting K-Rod's arbitration decision. Like when Rafael Soriano accepted the Braves arbitration in 2007, the Brewers are unlikely to want to keep a setup man at that price.

Of course, the Sox will probably trade Aviles to the Pirates for Evan Meek. Who's excited for 2012?

This guy