Breaking Down Walls: A Pitcher's Won-Loss Record

Former 21 Game Winner, Russ Ortiz

Part of what I would like to do on this site is to educate people on how to understand the game of baseball a little better. I would expect most of you even reading these posts know quite a bit about the game already, or can at least get through a nine inning game and know what just happened, and this is certainly not meant to belittle anyone's intelligence. What I would like to do is arm people with a better understanding of some newer ways of thinking about the game so they can both interpret what they have just watched and then discuss it with other fans. I think a good place to start is to look at some preconceived notions and statistics that have been around forever that can be slightly misleading or even flat out wrong. With some simple examples of why these concepts are outdated it will be easier to explain some newer ways of thinking. First, I would like to start with the stat with more holes in it than the plot of Ocean's 12:

Pitcher's Won-Loss Record


This one is so easy we have to look no further back than April 7 and April 8 to show exactly why this stat means nothing. Time, once again, for my favorite game, Player A vs. Player B:

Player A: 7 IP, 3 H, 3 BB, 9 SO, 0 ER


Player B: 5 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 2 SO, 6 ER


Before I tell you who the player is and what effect each game had on their Won-Loss record, I want every one to take a minute and think about who pitched the better game...It's ok I'll wait...I'm just gonna run and grab a Snapple...Ok, time's up. Did everybody say Player A pitched the better game? Good.

Well Player A is Jon Lester, who took a No Decision in a 1-0 loss to the Indians. Player B is John Lackey who took a 9-6 Win over the Yankees.

But that's just one game. Most stats can look kind of goofy after just one game. The best pitchers always finish with really good records at the end of the year right?

Player A: 29 Starts, 176.1 IP, 146 SO, 58 BB, 2.52 SO/BB, 25 HR, 83 R, 4.19 ERA (2% better than league average)

Player B: 34 Starts, 249.2 IP, 232 SO, 70 BB, 3.31 SO/BB, 17 HR, 80 R, 2.27 ERA (74% better than league average)

I am also going to give you their run support numbers:

Player A: 6.8 Runs per game (most in the AL)

Player B: 3.1 Runs per game (second least in the AL)

Ok, you have less time to think about which pitcher was better last year because I expect you are getting the point. Player B is clearly the better pitcher.

Player A is Yankees Starter Phil Hughes from 2010. He finished with a record of 18-8. Player B is Mariners Starter Felix Hernandez. He finished with a record of 13-12. Interestingly, 3 of the top 4 in Run Support were Yankees and the bottom 4 were all Mariners. As you can tell from that statement, the Yankees had the best offense in the AL and the Mariners had an historically bad offense last year (why is it “an historically” and not “a historically”? I am not British. I use a hard “H” when I say “Historically”. The English language, man, she is weird.) Of course, the Baseball Writers Association of America actually got it right last year and awarded Hernandez with the Cy Young despite his mediocre record. I give those guys a lot of crap but they are making baby steps towards understanding what makes a good baseball player. As you can see from this comparison, pitching is at most half of what decides the outcome of the game, and when you factor in defense and modern relief pitching, starting pitching probably decides about 25% of the outcome of a game. So why do pitchers who throw the first 5 innings (or those who appear in one inning at the right time as a reliever) get credited for winning the whole game?

In case you think, as most stat heads do, that one season is not enough data to prove a point, I will do one last Player A vs. Player B using career totals.

Player A: 685 Starts, 4970 IP, 3701 SO, 1322 BB, 2.80 SO/BB, 430 HR, 2029 R, 60 Shutouts, 3.31 ERA (18% better than league average)

Player B: 527 Starts, 3824 IP, 2478 SO, 1390 BB, 1.78 SO/BB, 389 HR, 1815 R, 28 Shutouts, 3.90 ERA (5% better than league average)

Ok from this one, I hope you see that Player A is better, and not  just because of his ERA. The guy walked fewer batters in over 1,000 more innings, had a SO/BB ratio a full point higher, had 32 more shut outs and has the 5^th most strikeouts of all time. Player A is Bert Blyleven and he had a career record of 287-250. Player B is Jack Morris and he had a career record of 254-186. Now, this is another one that the BBWAA got right as Blyleven was finally elected to the Hall of Fame this year  after 12 years on the ballot and Morris is still sitting there. But it took a hell of a lot of convincing to get the guy with the 5^th most strikeouts ever, probably the most important skill a pitcher can have, into the HOF. The chief reason was the mediocre record, while the reason Morris still stands a chance to get in despite his mediocre ERA is because “he knew how to win and pitched to the score.”

Hopefully I’ve showed you that individual Won-Loss records have very little meaning. Too much happens in every game that is out of a pitcher’s control that we should not credit him with the full outcome of the game. So the next time someone says, “Bro, the Sawx should totally sign that friggin guy, he was an 18 game winnah last yee-ah!”, I suggest you ask him about his strikeout to walk ratio, his home runs allowed, his run support, or even just his ERA. All are better indicators of talent and potential for future success than the highly convoluted, meaningless Won-Loss record.

Update: For those who think that Won-Loss records are simple, here is the Official MLB rules for determining the pitcher of record:


10.17 Winning And Losing Pitcher
(a) The official scorer shall credit as the winning pitcher that pitcher whose team assumes a lead while such pitcher is in the game, or during the inning on offense in which such pitcher is removed from the game, and does not relinquish such lead, unless
(1) such pitcher is a starting pitcher and Rule 10.17(b) applies; or
(2) Rule 10.17(c) applies.
Rule 10.17(a) Comment: Whenever the score is tied, the game becomes a new contest insofar as the winning pitcher is concerned. Once the opposing team assumes the lead, all pitchers who have pitched up to that point and have been replaced are excluded from being credited with the victory. If the pitcher against whose pitching the opposing team gained the lead continues to pitch until his team regains the lead, which it holds to the finish of the game, that pitcher shall be the winning pitcher.
(b) If the pitcher whose team assumes a lead while such pitcher is in the game, or during the inning on offense in which such pitcher is removed from the game, and does not relinquish such lead, is a starting pitcher who has not completed
(1) five innings of a game that lasts six or more innings on defense, or
(2) four innings of a game that lasts five innings on defense, then the official scorer shall credit as the winning pitcher the relief pitcher, if there is only one relief pitcher, or the relief pitcher who, in the official scorer’s judgment was the most effective, if there is more than one relief pitcher.
Rule 10.17(b) Comment: It is the intent of Rule 10.17(b) that a relief pitcher pitch at least one complete inning or pitch when a crucial out is made, within the context of the game (including the score), in order to be credited as the winning pitcher. If the first relief pitcher pitches effectively, the official scorer should not presumptively credit that pitcher with the win, because the rule requires that the win be credited to the pitcher who was the most effective, and a subsequent relief pitcher may have been most effective. The official scorer, in determining which relief pitcher was the most effective, should consider the number of runs, earned runs and base runners given up by each relief pitcher and the context of the game at the time of each relief pitcher’s appearance. If two or more relief pitchers were similarly effective, the official scorer should give the presumption to the earlier pitcher as the winning pitcher.
(c) The official scorer shall not credit as the winning pitcher a relief pitcher who is ineffective in a brief appearance, when at least one succeeding relief pitcher pitches effectively in helping his team maintain its lead. In such a case, the official scorer shall credit as the winning pitcher the succeeding relief pitcher who was most effective, in the judgment of the official scorer.
Rule 10.17(c) Comment: The official scorer generally should, but is not required to, consider the appearance of a relief pitcher to be ineffective and brief if such relief pitcher pitches less than one inning and allows two or more earned runs to score (even if such runs are charged to a previous pitcher). Rule 10.17(b) Comment provides guidance on choosing the winning pitcher from among several succeeding relief pitchers.
(d) A losing pitcher is a pitcher who is responsible for the run that gives the winning team a lead that the winning team does not relinquish.
Rule 10.17(d) Comment: Whenever the score is tied, the game becomes a new contest insofar as the losing pitcher is concerned.
(e) A league may designate a non-championship game (for example, the Major League All-Star Game) for which Rules 10.17(a)(1) and 10.17(b) do not apply. In such games, the official scorer shall credit as the winning pitcher that pitcher whose team assumes a lead while such pitcher is in the game, or during the inning on offense in which such pitcher is removed from the game, and does not relinquish such lead, unless such pitcher is knocked out after the winning team has attained a commanding lead and the official scorer concludes that a subsequent pitcher is entitled to credit as the winning pitcher.